With more than a year to go before the 20th Communist Party Congress, Xi Jinping’s re-election and changes at the top are already attracting attention. A major foreign propaganda group has recently leaked the changes in the pattern of the CCP’s Politburo at the 20th CPC Congress, suggesting that Li Keqiang, Wang Huning, Wang Yang and Zhao Leji may still be re-elected, while Li Keqiang may be re-elected as the chairman of the NPC in the following year.
Who will remain in the current Standing Committee? Li Keqiang is said to be in charge of the NPC
According to an article published by Beijing-based Dovetail on May 1, the Politburo of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee, the core of power in the CPC, is basically fixed to consist of 25 people. The relatively limited nature of the “circle” is still a breath of fresh air.
According to the article, Li Keqiang (born in 1955), who is regarded as a “weak premier” and whose age has not passed the red line, may have to be “transferred” according to the constitution because he has already served two consecutive terms as premier of the State Council, except for Xi Jinping, whose re-election at the 20th National Congress should not be in doubt. For example, Li Peng, who was Jiang Zemin’s partner, became the chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress (NPC) in 1998 after serving two consecutive terms as premier.
Current NPC Standing Committee Chairman Li Zhanshu (born in 1950) is the oldest, and is expected to step down with First Vice Premier Han Zheng (born in 1954), who also crossed the age line at the 20th Communist Party Congress. The remaining three members of the Standing Committee, Wang Huning (born in 1955), Zhao Leji (born in 1957) and Wang Yang (born in 1955), are under age and have only been “in the Standing Committee” for one term, most likely not leaving the Standing Committee of the Central Politburo.
According to the analysis of “Dove”, it is implied that Li Keqiang may be like Li Peng, after two consecutive terms, the NPC Standing Committee. And Wang Huning, Zhao Leji, Wang Yang, are also likely to be re-elected.
However, current affairs commentator Situ Jian believes that Xi Jinping attaches great importance to the position of NPC chairman, many important procedures related to the operation of power have to go through this rubber stamp, the current NPC chairman Li Zhanshu as Xi’s hardcore, for Xi to amend the constitution to break the restrictions on re-election has made a big contribution. So it is impossible to replace Li Keqiang, who is not in tune with Xi in every way.
The US media “Free Asia” has released a list of the next permanent members, that the future of the 20th National Congress, over 67 years old and under 68 years old Li Keqiang can barely stay in office, the biggest possibility is to voluntarily retire. The current Politburo members younger than Li Keqiang, Li Qiang, Chen Miner and Ding Xuexiang, three of Xi’s old staff, the likelihood of joining the Standing Committee is nine out of ten, plus whether the next Premier will be Hu Chunhua, this person in the 20th Congress to promote the Politburo Standing Committee should be more likely than the possibility of being driven out of the Politburo by Xi Jinping.
The four people into the four people to retire, in addition to the age criteria only, then Li Zhanshu and Han Zheng belong to the “no longer continue to nominate”, the third biggest possibility is of course Li Keqiang. The fourth is Wang Yang or Wang Huning?
According to the author, if we compare Wang Yang and Wang Huning, unless Xi Jinping has a sudden whim to make Wang Yang, who has a long experience in the State Council, the next Premier of the State Council, on the premise of abandoning Hu Chunhua, it is obvious that Wang Huning has a better reason than Wang Yang to be re-elected to the Politburo Standing Committee from the perspective of “career needs”.
Therefore, the author believes that one of the possible lists of the new Standing Committee of the Central Politburo that will emerge from the 20th National Congress is: Xi Jinping, Zhao Leji, Hu Chunhua, Wang Huning, Chen Miner, Ding Xuexiang and Li Qiang.
Politburo members will be jammed in advance of the NPC Standing Committee’s new mandate or cause someone to step down early
The aforementioned article in “Dovetail” also mentions the early layout of the Politburo members “jamming”, and the article believes that there will be important information about the local party congresses and party committees’ general elections. According to past practice, the local party congresses on the eve of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will begin after the Central Committee’s plenary session in the fall of 2021 and end in June 2022.
According to the article, once the local party secretary, who is usually a member of the Central Politburo, is changed within a year and a half, his or her successor will be seen as “locking in” a “ticket” to the Central Politburo in advance. For example, Li Hongzhong, then secretary of Hubei Provincial Party Committee, and Chen Miner, secretary of Guizhou Provincial Party Committee, took office within a year before the 19th CPC National Congress, and entered the Central Politburo after taking charge of Tianjin and Chongqing respectively.
The article argues that the four major municipalities directly under the Central Government, Guangdong Province and Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region are not ruled out to change their hands before the 20th CPC Congress, thus exposing the newly promoted Central Politburo members in advance.
The article points out that the past two sessions of the National People’s Congress in 2021 amended the Organic Law of the National People’s Congress to authorize the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress to fine-tune the Vice Premier and State Councillors of the State Council, as well as the Vice Chairmen and members of the Central Military Commission, at its meetings held every even month. This new rule means that Beijing could use this authority on the eve of the 20th Communist Party Congress to ultimately influence the composition of the Central Politburo.
Some analysts have suggested that Xi will nip any possible anti-Xi forces in the bud before the 20th CPC Congress. There is a high probability of changes in the vice premiership of the State Council, including Hu Chunhua, who has been described as a “regimented” person, and Han Zheng, who comes from the “Shanghai gang”, and Sun Chunlan, who could step down early.
Current affairs commentator Situ Jian has previously written an article pointing out that in politics, sometimes a day is too long. As the Chinese Communist Party is facing internal and external problems, there are many political variables, so it is not necessary to wait for Xi Jinping’s third term, or his successor, Adu, to take office.
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