The National Bureau of Statistics of the Communist Party of China (NBSC) had planned to release the 2020 census data, which was completed late last year, in early April, but it has not yet been released. The Financial Times revealed at the end of April that the reason was that the data was “very sensitive” and needed to be released only after an official internal consensus was reached. So, why is the Chinese Communist Party so late in releasing the data? And why is it necessary to reach an internal consensus before releasing them?
On April 27, the Financial Times quoted informed sources as saying that China’s census will be completed in December 2020, but the data is “very sensitive” because the total population has fallen below 1.4 billion, and a consensus needs to be reached among government departments on the interpretation of the data before it is released.
In mid-March of this year, the National Bureau of Statistics of the Communist Party of China (NBSC) said that the results of the population data would be released in early April, but they have not yet been released by May.
Li Hengqing, a scholar at the Institute for Information and Strategic Studies in Washington, D.C., told the Epoch Times that there are two reasons for the delay in releasing the census results, which were originally scheduled for April.
According to Li, the Chinese Communist Party is afraid to release the data because the census data is much lower than the official expectation, which means that the actual population of China and the government’s intention to release the figures may be very different, with a gap of over 100 million. There is no way to announce it, and that is one of the reasons why it is not announced now.”
Li Hengqing thinks another reason may be that the data reflects the current political game in China, “Some people will continue to tell falsehoods because they want to dedicate a gift to the so-called 100th year of the Party, and if there is such a big scandal, it is a matter to smash the pot.”
The strategic development of the national economy is based on reliable and credible population data. Li Hengqing said, “The 14th 5-year plan just formulated and that so-called two 100-year blueprint are based on the mathematical model of continuous population growth, and now it turns out that the population is not only not growing, but is growing negatively, then the original policy formulated is all wrong and an unattainable goal according to Yi Fu-hsien’s demographic analysis. So, this 7th national census data dare not publish is also based on this reason.”
“During the implementation of the family planning policy in previous years, because it was tied up with the interests of various parties, everyone was making up this data and made China’s population numbers inflated.” He said, “Now if they put out that real data, immediately a storm is going to come, so they will put out that it has been adjusted to also be fake data.”
“(In fact) there’s no way for them to continue the scam now, it’s going to go bankrupt.” He said.
Experts: there is population data corruption
On April 24, at the Potomac Culture Salon hosted by Li Hengqing, guest Yi Fuxian, a renowned expert on population issues and author of the book “The Empty Nest of the Great Nation,” argued that the reason for the increasing untruthfulness of the CCP’s population data since 2000 is the existence of serious corruption in population data, and revealed these corruptions in detail with data.
In the Salon Live, Yi argues that as life expectancy increases, women become more involved in non-agriculture after urbanization, and women become more educated, the fertility rate will naturally decline. But the Chinese (Communist) government has been slow to abolish the family planning policy and has falsified data to maintain it.
“Chinese demographers, the National Family Planning Commission, and the National Bureau of Statistics have been falsifying population data one at a time. For example, in 2000, China’s fertility rate was only 1.22, which was officially falsified to 1.8; in 2010, the fertility rate was only 1.18, which was officially falsified to 1.63; and in 2015, the fertility rate was only 1.05, which was officially falsified to 1.6,” he said.
Yi said they used the falsified data to show that if the one-child policy is liberalized, the population will grow indefinitely, leading to the depletion of resources such as food and medical care, so the one-child policy should be maintained, and the underlying reason “is because of the corruption of population data by interest groups.
National Bureau of Statistics “corrects” birth data with education data
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) uses population data from elementary school to revise the number of births in China, Yee said in a live broadcast of the salon.
The NBS released data showing 430 million (430.4 million) births from 1991-2014, and 6 years later, 438 million (438.74 million) enrolled in first grade from 1997-2020. Yi Fuxian said, “But this (enrollment) data is problematic and inflated, and there is a huge amount of water in the data.”
Why the “correction”? According to Yi, it’s for profit. China’s education funding is shared between the central and local governments, with the central government bearing 80 percent and the local governments 20 percent of the funding in western provinces and 60 percent and 40 percent in central provinces, “which leads to local government educational institutions and schools desperately trying to misrepresent (enrollment) numbers to get education funding.” He said.
On Jan. 7, 2012, CCTV reported that the city of Jieshou in Anhui province reported 51,586 primary school students, but only 36,234, a 42 percent overstatement, which resulted in 10.63 million yuan in funding.
On May 4 of the same year, China Youth reported that in two middle schools in Yangxin County, Hubei Province, the actual number of students in one middle school was only 2,147 but reported as 5,266, while the actual number of students in the other school was only 700 but reported as 3,000.
Yi Fuxian said, “The National Bureau of Statistics regulates the number of births based on education data, which inevitably leads to a large amount of water in China’s birth numbers.”
Li Hengqing shares the same view: “Teachers at all levels, schools and everyone in the education system just join together to falsify and agree to share the spoils inside. Therefore, the number is false.”
Expert: Household registration is more watery than the statistics bureau’s
During the live broadcast of the Potomac Culture Salon, Yi Fu Xian also disclosed that Zhai Zhenwu, president of the Chinese Population Society, projected that the total fertility rate for 2008-2013 was 1.61 based on 2015 household registration data, which was consistent with his own prediction at the time, and then Zhai won the second prize for scientific research achievements from the Ministry of Education in 2020, “saying He used the household registration indicator to argue that the data they had previously revised was accurate, and this data is likely to mislead the 2020 census.”
He argues that there is in fact more water in the household registration, “for example, from 2000-2019, the Bureau of Statistics reported an increase in population of 133 million, and the household registration reported an increase of 174 million,” “because there are more than twenty rights (benefits) linked to the household registration that This has led to many people having multiple hukou, and there were many house sisters and house sisters reported every day in previous years.”
Yi Fuxian said the population has actually grown negatively in 2018, while the statistics bureau believes that 5.3 million people were born that year, while the household registration believes it increased by 9.24 million. Household registration data can also be easily falsified, and a small police station can easily misrepresent many households, “for example, Diaojia police station in Zhonmou County, Henan Province, ran 1,980 empty households from 2010-2011; Xu Changyuan, a formal hall-level ‘black boss’ in Dalian City, has 2,000 more than seven hundred sets of properties, many of which were bought for household registration.”
“China’s two or three decades of fake hukou accumulated 150 million false hukou, especially after 2010 to liberalize the restrictions on low age to start a household, the water skyrocketed.” Yi Fuxian said.
Li Hengqing added, “No matter urban or rural, as long as an extra hukou is reported, an extra hukou is a big thing when it comes to subdividing residential bases, land and demolition.”
There is water in the number of births in the health sector
Yi Fuxian also disclosed a situation that China has piloted a new type of rural medical cooperation from 2003, which has covered the whole country in 2008, saying that farmers can be reimbursed for medical expenses when they give birth to children, “leading to individuals and hospital management agencies to desperately misrepresent the number of live births to fraudulently claim medical funds. Especially in 2010, the liberalization of the low age for household registration led many people to buy birth certificates.” He said.
According to an online search, there are hundreds of birth certificates for sale, and on Sept. 25, 2016, Democracy and Law reported that 4,000 blank birth certificates were stolen from maternal and child health stations in Mengcheng County, Anhui Province, and that these certificates could be used for hukou. .
Yi Fuxian said there is more interest in misreporting the number of births and selling birth certificates, “so the health department’s birth numbers are also watered down.”
Experts reveal that census data has also been tampered with
Yi Fuxian also talked about the falsification of census data and fertility rates during the live broadcast of the salon.
He gave the example that in 2000, the National Bureau of Statistics of the Communist Party of China predicted that China’s population would reach 1.267 billion in 2000. But the 2000 census total was much lower than 1.267 billion, “after which there was a so-called official recheck and fill in the gaps, and it became 1.245 billion people, and after that, an additional 20.72 million people were added, and then the National Bureau of Statistics announced to the public that the 2000 census was 1.266 billion people, and the fertility rate was 1.22, which the Family Planning Commission falsified to 1.8 “.
Why falsify the fertility rate? Yi Fuxian said, “According to Yu Xuejun of the regulations department of the National Family Planning Commission, if the fertility rate is only 1.2 there is no need to implement family planning, we have to have a fertility rate of 1.8, so we also have to implement family planning, the official reality is very clear that the purpose of tampering with the fertility rate is to maintain the continuation of the family planning policy.”
Yi Fu Xian cited several more sets of data, in 2010, the National Bureau of Statistics predicted that the population reached 1.341 billion in 2010, while the 2010 census remittance total was much lower than expected, so the official adjustment was 1.340 billion. “Fujian census office internal bright wire: the original remittance total population of 33.29 million, but the final communiqué of Fujian Province is 36.89 million, 10.8% more. 2010 total fertility rate was only 1.18, was falsified to 1.63.”
“Interest groups use a false data to mislead the public for the sake of profit, if it happens in the United States, this should be a very serious incident, no less than the Watergate incident.” Yi Fu-hsien said in the broadcast.
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