China’s activities in Central Asia are beginning to turn and target Uzbekistan more. However, with the expansion of trade and economy with Uzbekistan and the increase of Chinese investments there, Beijing’s image has not become more positive as a result, and the concerns of Uzbek society about China have increased instead.
No anti-China protests, comfortable environment for China’s activities
China’s activities in Central Asia have always paid special attention to Kazakhstan. But due to anti-China sentiment in Kazakh society, China has begun to adjust its strategy and in recent years has increasingly focused on Uzbekistan, another key Central Asian country.
Increased cooperation with Uzbekistan could enable China to balance its relations with Kazakhstan. Some Central Asian analysts say that China may value more the fact that Uzbek society has so far been free of anti-Chinese sentiment, which makes China comfortable with its activities in Uzbekistan. In addition, while there are some Uighurs settled there, there has been little coverage of Xinjiang affairs in the Uzbek media, which has been largely silent officially.
After the death of longtime Uzbek ruler Karimov a few years ago, the current president Mirziyoyev took power and began pushing for a series of reforms to open the country’s doors, which has provided new opportunities for China to strengthen its economic and trade investment activities in Uzbekistan.
Chinese economic and trade investment in Kazakhstan decreases, investment in Uzbekistan increases
Kazakh scholar on China Kavukonov said that trade and investment between China and Kazakhstan has been declining in recent years, while with Uzbekistan continues to grow, forming a big contrast, the key reason is the absence of anti-China protests in Uzbekistan.
Kavukonov said that China’s trade with Kazakhstan has been decreasing since 2010. in 2010, trade between the two countries had reached $20 billion. in the two years from 2019 to 2020, trade between the two countries hovered at more than $14 billion to $15 billion. And in the years from 2014 to 2016, the annual bilateral trade volume did not even reach $10 billion. He believes that such a small trade volume is very disproportionate to the huge size of China’s economy and Kazakhstan’s borders with China.
Kavukonov said that Chinese investments in Kazakhstan have also been declining. From 2013 to 2020, China’s share of foreign investment in Kazakhstan has fallen from 9.3% to 4.7%.
Kazakh media said that Russia and China are now the largest trading partners of Kazakhstan. China’s share of foreign debt owed by Kazakhstan ranks third in size. China also ranks only fifth in terms of foreign investment in Kazakhstan.
And since 2015, China has been Uzbekistan’s largest trading partner for several years in a row, surpassing Russia. Uzbekistan’s trade with China reached more than $7.6 billion in 2019, up 16.8% from 2018, said information released by the Uzbek National Statistical Service. However, trade between the two countries fell last year to $6.4 billion due to the epidemic.
Uzbekistan opened a consulate in Guangzhou last October, becoming the second after Shanghai, with the main aim of further developing economic and trade relations with China.
Chinese investment is the largest in many fields, including military industry
Although the scale of Chinese investment in Uzbekistan is not as large as in Kazakhstan, the growth of Chinese investment in the country is very fast and involves telecommunications, heavy truck manufacturing, energy, military industry and many other fields.
China has overtaken Russia as the top foreign investor in Uzbekistan, said Abdulrasulov, a spokesman for the Uzbek National Statistical Office last year. 2019, China’s share of Uzbek foreign investment has exceeded a quarter at 26.2%. As of the beginning of last year, the number of companies with a Chinese background operating in Uzbekistan had reached 1,650, compared to 1,820 companies with a Russian capital background.
Close cooperation in Afghanistan, security
Uzbekistan and China are discussing the construction of a railroad project from Xinjiang to Uzbekistan via Kyrgyzstan. This could be an alternative to the transportation route from the Khorgos port in Xinjiang to Kazakhstan. Uzbekistan is also promoting cooperation programs in Central and South Asia. Some of these projects include the construction of a high-voltage transmission line from Uzbekistan to Afghanistan and a railroad from Uzbekistan to Afghanistan and then to Pakistan or India. Uzbekistan expects China to join these projects.
Cooperation between the two sides in the security field is also increasing. The Uzbek army, which has traditionally used Russian-made equipment, began purchasing air defense missile systems and other military equipment from China in 2017. Interaction and cooperation between the two sides’ security and intelligence agencies on Afghan affairs is also increasing. Uzbek media say that it is possible that China will form a new cooperation platform with Uzbekistan on Afghan affairs. Or add Uzbekistan to the current existing China-Tajikistan-Pakistan-Afghanistan quadripartite mechanism.
In addition, China and Uzbekistan are jointly developing and producing vaccines. The first batch of one million doses of Chinese vaccine arrived in the capital Tashkent at the end of March.
Uzbekistan is indispensable for Central Asian affairs
Grozin, a Russian scholar on Central Asia, said that Uzbekistan can account for half of Central Asia’s population and has a very young demographic structure. This country has a great potential in many areas such as economy, market and politics, which makes it attractive to many countries. Geographically, Uzbekistan shares borders with all Central Asian countries and is bordered by Afghanistan to the south.
Grozin said that not only China, but also all the big countries that want to operate in Central Asia, cannot do without Uzbekistan.
Grozin “Uzbekistan has the most powerful army in Central Asia. In addition, there are many issues in Central Asia that cannot be resolved without Uzbekistan’s participation, especially in the case of Afghanistan. The situation in Afghanistan, especially in northern Afghanistan, depends to a large extent on Tashkent.”
China’s influence is expanding and the attitude of the local population is changing
Five or six years ago, Uzbekistan was considered the least dependent on China in Central Asia, but today China accounts for about one-fifth of Uzbekistan’s foreign debt. This deepening dependence on China has also led to a quiet change in Uzbek society’s attitude toward China.
A poll by the Bishkek-based social agency Central Asia Barometer in Uzbekistan shows that in 2019, as many as 65 percent of Uzbeks still strongly support Chinese investment and cooperation projects in the energy and infrastructure sectors there. But just one year later, by 2020, that percentage has dropped to 48 percent.
At the same time, more Uzbeks are becoming worried about China. The number of people who fear that Uzbekistan will fall into China’s debt trap has climbed from 7% in 2019 to 25% in 2020.
Not wanting to rely on China How long China’s image will last raises concerns
Some Central Asian analysts say China used to think it could buy hearts and minds by spreading money and investment, but that strategy didn’t work in Kazakhstan. China is now turning to Uzbekistan, which makes it the two most important countries in Central Asia for China, parallel to Kazakhstan. Chinese influence will thus expand, but there is concern about how long China’s image will hold up in Uzbekistan without deteriorating.
A report published in February by the Central Asia Analysis Network said that while Uzbekistan is trying hard to strike a balance between the three forces of China, Russia and the West, it is becoming increasingly difficult to do so in practice, tilting more toward the Chinese side. It is foreseeable that in the future Uzbekistan will strengthen its ties with the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Community, the Collective Security Treaty Organization, and the Turkish-led Cooperation Council of Turkic-speaking States as a way to reduce its dependence on China.
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