Whether it is the Asia-Pacific rebalance under Obama or Trump‘s Indo-Pacific strategy, including today’s temporary “Chuan rule and worship” in US policy towards China, Taiwan is at the center of the Sino-US geopolitical vortex. In the face of China’s increasing military pressure, it is difficult for those who care about Taiwan’s fate not to be anxious. As the stakeholders of the Indo-Pacific strategy have included Japan, Australia and India, Japan’s military confrontation with China is becoming more and more resolute. Former Japanese Prime Minister Abe claimed in a public speech on March 27 that Japan has been at the forefront of the confrontation between China and the United States, and Taiwan can finally feel a little relieved.
Japan’s posture to protect regional security tends to be more aggressive
According to Kyodo News, Japan may be involved in collaborative defense of Taiwan. During Austin’s March 16 meeting with Nobuo Kishi, Kishi spoke of the need for Japan’s Self-Defense Forces to study how to work with U.S. forces to defend Taiwan when the Chinese Communist Party attacks the country. A joint U.S.-Japan statement issued after the meeting said, “China’s actions pose political, economic, military and technological challenges to both allies and the international community in ways that are inconsistent with the prevailing international order.”
For Japan, it has always been its national policy to maintain relations with both the United States and China. For Japan to consider the international situation as it does now would have been unthinkable in the past, which is why Prime Minister Abe has been unable to amend the Peace Constitution despite repeated efforts. Now, with the rising threat of the Chinese Communist Party to the security of the Indo-Pacific region, Japan has to raise its defense awareness. According to The Japanese media, which has seen the full report, the report notes that China’s military capability to block U.S. aircraft carriers in the Western Pacific has “effectively increased” and that China’s development of anti-ship missiles has disrupted China’s development of anti-ship missiles has disturbed the balance of U.S. and Chinese military power in the first island chain. The report further argues that Japan should continue to take tough measures in the East China Sea and South China Sea in response to China’s military basing of parts of the South China Sea where sovereignty is disputed and the repeated visits of Chinese maritime police vessels to Japanese territorial waters near the Senkaku Islands (known as the Diaoyu Islands in China).
Japan’s defense assistance to Taiwan made clear
In a meeting between the U.S. and Japanese defense ministers in mid-March, Japanese Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi suggested that “it is necessary to explore what kind of assistance the SDF can provide to U.S. forces supporting Taiwan in the future. This is the first Time since World War II that the Japanese government has made a clear statement in support of U.S. involvement in the war across the Taiwan Strait and a clear statement of assistance. The U.S. and Japanese defense ministers’ meeting also confirmed that they would “work closely together in the event of an emergency in Taiwan.
As early as April 2015, the U.S. and Japan announced the U.S.-Japan Defense Cooperation Guidelines, which clearly state that Japan can take action “when the United States or a third country with which Japan has close ties is attacked by force and may threaten Japan’s security. This “third country” of course includes Taiwan. This year, the U.S. and Japan have directly proposed that they will “work closely together in the event of an emergency in Taiwan,” which is a clear and open reference to the 2015 proposal, intended as a warning to the Chinese Communist Party.
Japan’s so-called “appropriate” way to cooperate with the U.S. military in the event of a crisis in Taiwan is listed in the above-mentioned “Cooperation Guidelines” as five types of military cooperation programs, namely armament protection, search and rescue, maritime operations, anti-missile and logistical support. In other words, Japan’s future involvement in the Taiwan Strait war, the specific deployment may include, provide Taiwan’s national army in wartime war preservation operations cover work, for Taiwan’s aircraft warships to provide search and rescue assistance, Taiwan’s military aircraft warships can be transferred to Japan’s adjacent islands in the event of a communist attack, Japan’s Land Self-Defense Force and Maritime Self-Defense Force will be deployed on Miyako Island, the range of 400 kilometers to the ship missile can also provide cover for the national army The Japanese Army Self-Defense Force and Maritime Self-Defense Force will be deployed on Miyako Island with a range of 400 kilometers to provide cover.
On March 28, Indonesian Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto visited Japan’s Defense Ministry for talks, and the two confirmed that they would promote defense cooperation, including equipment and technology, and agreed on guidelines for joint training between the JMSDF and Indonesian Navy in the South China Sea.
Mixed news from the U.S.
Let’s start with the good news.
First, the U.S. military is more fully aware that Taiwan’s security is related to the success or failure of the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy and its global status. There is a consensus among the current commander, Admiral David Sen, and his successor, General John Aquilino, about their defense responsibilities, and that is that the Chinese Communist Party’s military threat to Taiwan is the most dangerous concern the U.S. military now faces.
Second, a bipartisan group of lawmakers on Capitol Hill is promoting a pro-Taiwan campaign. The Taiwan media noted two events that occurred on March 26. First, Senator Mark Rubio, a Republican in the U.S. Senate, and Senator Jeff Merkley, a Democrat, introduced the Taiwan Relations Enhancement Act bill, which calls for raising the level of the U.S. representative in Taiwan to a level that requires Senate confirmation, establishing a U.S.-Taiwan Cultural Exchange Foundation, and promoting Taiwan’s membership in international organizations. Second, a bipartisan group of members of the U.S. House and Senate sent a joint letter to U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) in support of their establishment of the agency’s preclearance facility in Taiwan.
The third piece of good news is that Taiwan and the United States recently signed a Memorandum of Understanding on Taiwan-U.S. Maritime Patrol Cooperation. Some Taiwanese media therefore believe that Biden‘s earlier press conference, in which he mentioned that he would not seek confrontation with the Chinese Communist Party and would maintain a competitive relationship, was a false alarm, and that Taiwan was therefore disappointed, and that it is actually important to look at the diplomatic line of the U.S. government, not what they say, but what they do. The U.S.-sponsored “Quadripartite Security Talks” and the visits of Blinken and Austin to Japan and South Korea are all aimed at the Chinese Communist Party.
But don’t be happy, the Biden Administration is cutting military spending, which is the most substantive information of the U.S.-China military confrontation.
U.S. Congress’ Military Spending Debate Goes Public
Admiral David Sen, the current commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, believes that the Chinese Communist Party’s military threat to Taiwan is the most dangerous concern the U.S. military now faces, telling a U.S. Senate hearing on his appointment that the U.S. military’s deployment of fifth-generation F-35 fighter jets is critical to East Asia, saying, “I would be concerned if we reduced the number of fifth-generation aircraft. ” The Navy’s official website reports that House Armed Services Committee Chairman Adam Smith (D-Wash.), however, represents Democrats and wants to squeeze military spending.
The Navy’s official website published a story March 16 titled “Two Letters from Capitol Hill Signal Showdown on Defense Spending. The story pointed to an extremely serious issue for the United States, with progressive members of the Democratic Party calling for deep cuts in the U.S. defense budget amid the escalating Cold War between the United States and China. As many as 50 Democratic members of Congress sent a letter to Biden on March 16 calling for a reduction in the Defense Department budget. Among the Democratic members of the House Armed Services Committee, Democratic Rep. Ro Khanna of California signed the letter, and the chairman of the committee, House Armed Services Committee Chairman Adam Smith (D-Wash.), elected from the leftist stronghold of Seattle, did not sign the letter, but he has made it clear that he opposes strong military preparedness. I would like to draw the attention of the Taiwanese media to the fact that among the members of the House who signed the letter is the beloved “grassroots comeback” of Taiwan’s leftist youth, New York City’s far-left Congresswoman AOC (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez).
In their letter, the progressive Democrats argue that the U.S. military now needs to reduce its strength and save money to spend on diplomacy, humanitarian aid, global public health, and sustainability research. Biden has decided to cut the defense budget for the next fiscal year by 2.5 percent, keeping only $704 billion, which will be used to reduce the number of aircraft carriers. But this group of Democratic progressive lawmakers are not satisfied, think Biden cut military spending too little, demanded to cut 10% on top of the 2.5% cut; if their goal is achieved, the U.S. military spending cut next year will reach 12.5%, the U.S. military budget will be 84.6 billion less than last year. This is not only the deepest cut in the U.S. defense budget in years, but it is a budget cut the U.S. has never seen since the Cold War.
The hard core of the U.S.-China confrontation is the military, and the Democrats’ drastic cuts in military spending will seriously shake the confidence of allies in the U.S. commitment to maintaining international order. This is the reason why Japan’s defense attitude has become proactive. This is not a problem that can be solved by a few optimistic comments in the Taiwan media.
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