The Chinese Communist Party claims to build a high-speed rail between Fuzhou and Taipei by 2035. (Photo source: Weibo)
The two sessions of the Communist Party of China (CPC) were held on the 5th. An article by Katsuji Nakazawa, former China bureau chief for the Nihon Keizai Shimbun, points out that Chinese Communist Party President Xi Jinping has set goals for the next 15 years, providing clues as to how long he hopes to stay in power. And in the 2035 vision, a plan for Taiwan emerges that reveals Beijing‘s ambitions for the country.
The article, “China Finalizes 2035 Road, Rail Plan to Taiwan,” notes that the “Outline of the National Comprehensive Three-Dimensional Transportation Network Plan,” recently released by the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee and State Council, clearly shows Beijing’s intention to build a transportation network across the Taiwan Strait and directly to Taipei.
Speaking about the outline at a press conference on Monday, Communist Party Transportation Minister Li Xiaopeng also showed a map of the high-speed rail and other transportation networks planned for completion over the next 15 years: a light green line extending to Taiwan.
The Chinese city connected to Taipei is Pingtan in Fuzhou, which is just 130 kilometers from Hsinchu, and the Chinese Communist Party authorities have said in the past that it is feasible to connect Pingtan to Hsinchu via a submarine tunnel.
The article said that the idea of building a submarine tunnel in the Taiwan Strait has been proposed in the past, but only on paper because no one has the political capital to carry out such a pompous and expensive plan, and because Taiwan’s rejection of “one country, two systems” has become almost a national consensus in recent years. But this Time is different, as Xi Jinping’s plan to use force to secure re-election to the 20th National Assembly has been widely discussed.
Former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, in an article entitled “Avoiding War – How to Avoid a U.S.-China Confrontation That Could Lead to Disaster” in the journal Foreign Affairs, also said that the next 10 years will be “dangerous years “Taiwan is both a point of conflict and a bargaining chip for the United States and China.
In a hearing before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission (USCC), U.S. scholar Oriana Skylar Mastro quoted unnamed Chinese Communist Party generals as saying that the Communist Party might even invade Taiwan by force within two years.
However, Cui Lei, a scholar at the China Institute of International Studies, a think tank affiliated with the Chinese Foreign Ministry, wrote to the East Asia Forum, an Australian research journal, rejecting these claims and emphasizing that the CCP is unlikely to achieve unification by force in the near future, not only because the costs and risks of unification by force are too high, but also because the key reason is that it is unlikely that the Chinese government will unify Taiwan by force. The more critical reason is that Xi Jinping, who is determined to ensure the continuation of his term as general secretary, needs a stable domestic political environment in 2022 when the 20th Communist Party Congress will be held.
Zheng Zhongyuan, a political commentator who is familiar with China’s political situation, said in our analysis that the CCP is a rogue regime, so of course we cannot rule out a hard line, but the hidden worry that keeps Xi from fighting is actually within the party, because the top of the CCP is not a monolith, and all the apparent loyalty is fake. Xi Jinping and his cronies keep asking the party to “maintain the two”, that is, to maintain Xi Jinping’s own position of power, which shows that he is most uneasy that he is not protected. Once there is a war, will the army turn its head in chaos? The company’s political opponents in the government and the opposition will take advantage of the opportunity to rise up? Therefore, Xi Jinping is not likely to take the risk.
Recent Comments