Beijing has been vocal about raising the retirement age for pensions to avoid an earlier crisis as the mainland’s pension gap grows. Recently, it has been reported that the Communist Party of China (CPC) authorities are preparing for a delay in the starting age of pensions, mainly because the pension system is facing bankruptcy due to the decline in the number of births and the increase in Life expectancy on the mainland. Xie Tian, a professor at the Aiken School of Business at the University of South Carolina, analyzed the multiple reasons why the pension system in China is in the midst of a bankruptcy crisis.
Professor Xie Tian said that the life expectancy of the mainland population in the last two decades is indeed growing, part of the reason for the growth is that the domestic people pay more attention to health, Chinese Medicine, Chinese herbal medicine, qigong health care exercise these more attention, so the life expectancy of mainland people gradually catch up with the United States, there is about a gap of one or two years, this is very natural. However, the problem now is that the mainland has indeed entered a low-fertility trap, and the one-child Family planning implemented by the Chinese Communist government for 40 years has led to the current rapid aging of the population.
Xie Tian said, “This is in fact related to the rule of the Chinese Communist Party. First of all, the Chinese Communist Party has been promoting the one-child policy for a long Time, a very evil and life-cruel one-child policy, and the number of babies killed by the Chinese Communist Party in the past decades may be tens of millions or more. There are three reasons for this: one is that wage income, in fact, does not increase purchasing power that fast, and prices are rising too fast. Another is that modern mainland young people, like young people in other countries, tend to have fewer children and are reluctant to have children or get married. There is also the cost of raising children is now particularly high, because the cost of housing, medical care and Education on the mainland makes them afraid to have children.”
Professor Xie Tian recently received a piece of information about the low fertility rate on the mainland, which reads: On January 1, 1990, 2,784 people were born in Shanghai that day; on January 1, 2000, 1,148 people were born in Shanghai that day; on January 1, 2010, 380 people were born in Shanghai that day; on January 1, 2020, 156 people were born in Shanghai that day; on January 1, 2021, only 27 newborns were born in Shanghai. On January 1, 2021, there will be only 27 births in Shanghai. China’s current fertility rate is about 1.4, indicating a trend of declining fertility and births across the mainland.
Xie Tian said: “With the total population on the mainland declining and life expectancy now increasing, pensions are definitely going to be a problem, as it would be in any normal country. In addition, in mainland China, we know that there is the problem of misappropriation of pensions, the problem of corrupt Chinese officials misappropriating pensions. When these factors are added together, the pension system in the mainland will definitely not be able to make ends meet. Various reports predict when he (the mainland’s pension system) will go bankrupt!”
The current retirement system of the Chinese Communist Party stipulates that men can only retire at the age of 60, female cadres at the age of 55 and female workers at the age of 50. Professor Xie Tian particularly emphasized that the pension problem on the mainland that is being talked about now generally refers to urban residents, while the vast number of farmers and migrant workers lack protection.
Xie Tian said: “Another point that must be pointed out is that the mainland pension system does not really include farmers, the vast number of farmers, more than 500 million 600 million farmers, these people may claim to have a little pension, maybe only a few hundred dollars a month, less than a thousand dollars, which is actually almost the same. And most of those low-income urban residents, including many part-time workers or migrant workers they are also not under this coverage system. Unlike normal countries, like the United States, the social security system is truly universal. But even a non-universal coverage, only partial coverage, mainly to protect the urban residents of this pension system, now will be in a state of bankruptcy, there are several reasons in it.”
Professor Xie Tian believes that the next step of the Chinese Communist Party will certainly use the practice of postponing the retirement age to save the huge gap in pensions, making the younger people are now, the retirement age will be postponed again, to take a sub-age to delay the time of retirement, this time the Chinese Communist Party once again put the news out, is to test the water ah, had to do.
Xie Tian said: “Because he can not let the population out rate growth up or more young people to pay pensions. But I think it is likely to introduce a step-by-step deferral approach. Let’s say if you are now fifty-five years old, give you push to sixty years old to retire, if you are only fifty-two years old fifty years old, may postpone the retirement of sixty-five years old, younger pushed even later, will not be a sweeping retirement age from sixty years old at once to seventy years old. Rather, the number of people in different age classes, different age groups are given different retirement ages, and I think this is probably the way the Communist Party will do it and have to do it.”
According to official reports, the mainland’s pension system does not include the thousands of couriers, cab drivers and domestic workers, among others, who have very low or no social security at all.
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