In February 2021, the USS Nimitz carrier battle group has entered the Indo-Pacific region, while the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier battle group has begun operations in the Indo-Pacific region late last year and the USS Ronald Reagan carrier is currently undergoing maintenance in Japan. Pictured is the aircraft carrier USS Nimitz
Since the inauguration of Biden, the Indo-Pacific waters have been “smoky” and tense. The Chinese Communist Party not only repeatedly sent military aircraft to disturb Taiwan, but also issued the Maritime Police Act to provoke. The Biden Administration was forced to reaffirm the U.S. commitment to security and stability in the Indo-Pacific. Experts believe that the U.S. commitment needs to be backed up by military power and rally alliances to encircle the Chinese Communist Party and ensure that red lines are implemented to be effective.
Biden was sworn in as president of the United States on Jan. 20. on Jan. 22 the Chinese Communist Party passed the Maritime Police Act, which allows the use of force against foreign vessels in its waters. on Jan. 23, 13 Chinese military aircraft entered Taiwan’s air defense identification zone; on Jan. 24, 15 more Chinese military aircraft entered Taiwan’s air defense identification zone. on Feb. 2, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby announced that Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has ordered the USS Nimitz carrier battle group into the Indo-Pacific region (note: broadly defined as the area between the Indian and Pacific Oceans, bordering Japan, India and Australia), and said the U.S. government values the Asia-Pacific region.
Hal Brands, a Bloomberg columnist, is a professor of international affairs at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies and a scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. In a Feb. 2 Bloomberg opinion piece, Blanz noted that the new U.S. administration is setting red lines against Chinese (Communist) aggression, but only if it is willing to act, and such action requires military might to ensure it.
U.S. Government Shines a Red Line
In his article, Branz points out that the Biden administration is working to build a strong base in the Indo-Pacific. Within days of taking office, Biden publicly reaffirmed the U.S. commitment to the three frontline states of Japan, Taiwan and the Philippines.
At the Time, Biden told Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga that the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty covered the Senkaku Islands (or Diaoyu Islands, as claimed by the Chinese Communist Party), which are administered by the Tokyo government. The Biden administration then affirmed that the U.S.-Philippine Joint Defense Treaty applies not only to the main islands of the archipelago, but also to Philippine armed forces and property located in the South China Sea. The U.S. government also declared its support for Taiwan to be “rock solid. The Biden administration has consistently said it will not tolerate a military challenge from Beijing along the so-called first island chain – the dividing line that separates China from the open Pacific Ocean.
While there is nothing new in these commitments per se, the Biden administration’s reaffirmation is aimed at getting rid of the Communist Party’s shockwaves of power in the Indo-Pacific, and also reflects how the new U.S. administration is approaching the challenge of deterrence in a dangerous theater of war, Blanz said. This approach includes carefully choosing red lines; clearly articulating them; and vigorously defending them.
Responding to Communist China Biden Administration Emphasizes Allied Policy
Since taking office, Biden has strengthened his foreign policy team by hiring several Asia experts to emphasize the importance of allies in dealing with the strategic competition posed by Beijing. Among these experts, Kurt Campbell, who served as the National Security Council’s coordinator for Indo-Pacific affairs, is widely credited with shifting the Obama administration’s normal focus to Asia, as he served as assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs during former President Barack Obama’s administration and is familiar with several Asian governments.
According to CNBC, Scott Kennedy, senior advisor and trustee chair for China business and economics at the think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), argues that the Biden administration’s China Policy could actually be called an alliance policy. So I think we’re going to see Secretary of State Antony Blinken,” he said in a recent CSIS Asia Forecast 2021 webinar. …… national security adviser Jake Sullivan and Kurt Campbell spend most of their time not engaging directly with China, but with allies in Asia and Europe on China.”
Prior to the Biden administration, Campbell, along with current National Security Council China director Rush Doshi, wrote that the Indo-Pacific region faced two “specific” challenges: the economic and military rise of China (the Communist Party) and a retreating United States. They write, “…… must begin to address each of these trends if the next U.S. administration is to preserve the regional operating platform that has produced peace and unprecedented prosperity.”
CNBC reports that Biden and his team have already begun working to build ties with allies in the Asia-Pacific region. According to a White House statement, Biden has had phone conversations with the prime minister of Japan, the prime minister of Australia and the president of South Korea. And analysts at consulting firm Eurasia Group said Blinken has spoken with counterparts in Japan, South Korea, Australia, the Philippines and Thailand. The analysts said the Biden team’s top priority is to expand ties with U.S. allies and key Asian nations in a quest to strengthen U.S. Security and diplomatic commitments in the region.
The USS Roosevelt and USS Nimitz carrier battle groups conduct a joint exercise in the South China Sea on Feb. 9. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist Seaman Deirdre Marsac)
Lessons from the Obama Era Need to be Learned
Nonetheless, the question of whether the U.S. can keep its promises becomes critical. In his article, Blanz notes that the Biden administration’s statement of support provides a clue to Biden’s response to the threat and reflects the lessons of the Obama era and growing anxiety about China’s (CCP) intentions.
Branz notes that the lesson of the Obama administration is not to speak up and carry a small stick (note: the opposite of the “speak softly and carry a big stick” policy of advancing diplomacy with a military backdrop). The Obama administration is most notorious, he said, for declaring that Bashar al-Assad must relinquish power in Syria and for making a red line against the regime’s massive use of chemical weapons, but refusing to intervene militarily when that red line was blatantly crossed.
And in the South China Sea, Obama administration officials have repeatedly declared that China (the Chinese Communist Party) should not be involved in building artificial islands, coercing its neighbors, or increasing its military might, but have never stopped Beijing from doing so. The result drains the credibility the U.S. enjoys among allies and adversaries alike, while ultimately increasing the risk of a more serious challenge as all sides become confused about what exactly Washington is intolerant of.
Branz argues that a successful approach to dealing with the Chinese Communist Party must be based on the doctrine of deterrence, which holds that specific warnings with specific and credible consequences are the best way to deter aggression. He said the use of deterrence theory is particularly important as tensions rise and the potential for miscalculation in many parts of Chinese waters increases.
The Biden administration’s ability to keep the red line firm is under scrutiny as the Chinese Communist Party emerges from the gray area
But Branz also mentioned that Biden has not yet articulated how he will respond to Chinese Communist Party coercion near the U.S. red line. He noted that the Chinese Communist Party has been adept at using the “gray area” to its strategic advantage over the past decade.
Some officials have called for increased U.S. naval patrols in the South China Sea to show that Washington will not tolerate restrictions on freedom of navigation in that key waterway. But Blanz argued that naval patrols are not enough to stop the Chinese Communist Party from illegally building islands, deploying advanced military capabilities and taking steps to turn the South China Sea into a military lake. He noted that each step Beijing takes is not large enough to warrant a significant U.S. response, but cumulatively these actions can change the entire strategic situation.
To date, the USS Nimitz carrier battle group has entered the Indo-Pacific region, while the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier battle group began operating in the Indo-Pacific late last year and the USS Ronald Reagan carrier is currently undergoing maintenance in Japan.
The USS Roosevelt and USS Nimitz carrier battle groups are also conducting joint exercises in the South China Sea. And China, Russia and Iran are about to hold joint maritime exercises in the Indian Ocean in mid-February.
Carrier battle groups may be an effective deterrent to the Chinese Communist Party at the moment. However, Blanz believes there is still a question of whether the U.S. red line will remain credible as time goes on in response to the Chinese Communist Party. So far, Blanz’s analysis says, the CCP has largely avoided testing the U.S. red line because the CCP fears that it could fail if a major conflict were to arise. But as the CCP completes the modernization of its military, once it has the capability to deter U.S. forces and consolidate its military dominance in neighboring countries, it will become more confident about the outcome of waging a conflict in the Indo-Pacific.
Thus, Blanz said, U.S. strategy will place great emphasis on maintaining military superiority so that deterrence remains credible, which will require significant U.S. investment and new ways to make the United States strong enough to withstand a fiercely competitive environment and greater contributions from U.S. allies and partners.
Branz believes that only rock-solid military strength will keep the U.S. red lines firmly in place.
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