Analysts believe that if the vaccine works, China’s supply of the new crown pneumonia vaccine to Indonesia and the Philippines could strengthen Beijing’s image in those countries, although both are currently unhappy with China’s expansion in the South China Sea.
Both countries have begun ordering vaccines produced by Sinovac Biotech, according to Asian media reports and information on the website of Beijing-based Sinovac Holdings Biotech. China’s official Xinhua news agency said in October that it was “crucial” to distribute vaccines “around the world, not just in rich countries.
Nationals of Indonesia and the Philippines are disgusted by China’s expansion in the 3.5 million square kilometer South China Sea. Several Asian countries and regions have overlapping territorial claims to the South China Sea, which is rich in fisheries and undersea energy reserves. China, which has the most powerful military in Asia, has reclaimed islands claimed by the Philippines, and Chinese ships sail through waters that Jakarta says fall within Indonesia’s exclusive economic zone.
Analysts say China is eager to be seen as a good neighbor by other countries and wants to minimize U.S. geopolitical influence. If the vaccine works, reaches remote areas of each archipelago at the right time and is not too costly, China could win favor in Southeast Asia’s two largest countries. Indonesia and the Philippines have a combined population of 375 million.
If vaccines prove to be good, effective, safe and affordable,” said Aaron Rabena, a researcher at the Manila-based Asia-Pacific Pathways to Progress Foundation. Then I guess that might change the perception here to some extent.” He believes that China wants to “make up for their distorted image.
In 2012, the Philippines and China confronted each other over Scarborough Shoal (known in China as Huangyan Island) in disputed waters. Since then, Filipinos, including some in the military, have been distrustful of China. Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has sought to repair relations since taking office in 2016. Duterte said last year that he would prioritize Chinese vaccines and potential imports from Russia.
As of mid-December, the Philippines was aiming to conclude negotiations with Kexing Biotech to get 25 million vaccines by March.
On its website, KXB promised to provide “bulk materials” to PT Bio Farma, Indonesia’s state-run vaccine producer, to produce at least 40 million doses of the vaccine by March. According to the Jakarta Post website, on Dec. 6, KXB shipped 1.2 million doses of vaccine to Jakarta for storage at a nearby PT Bio Farma warehouse.
The Jakarta Post added that Indonesia has placed a “firm” order for about 160 million doses of vaccine, of which 140 million doses were produced by Techking Biologics.
Paramita Supamijoto, a lecturer in international relations at Bina Nusantara University in Jakarta, said anti-Chinese sentiment is currently running high in Indonesia and some Indonesians fear the vaccine is unsafe.
“At the beginning, there was a heated debate about why we needed to order (vaccines) from China, there was a strong sense of mistrust, and that anti-Chinese sentiment is still very strong,” she said.
The Jakarta Post said Indonesia’s Food and Drug Regulatory Agency plans to visit Kexing Biologics’ facility in Beijing to ensure that “drug production is in line with good manufacturing practices.” The report quoted PT Bio Farma officials as defending the expected price of $13.57 per dose.
China’s official Global Times website said in November that Southeast Asian leaders praised Chinese vaccines as “easily available and affordable.
Supamijoto said it may be the most appropriate vaccine for Indonesia’s situation. Indonesians are scattered across 13,000 islands.
However, Eduardo Araral, an associate professor at the National University of Singapore’s School of Public Policy, said Duterte might wait for a vaccine made by U.S. company Pfizer Inc. if the vaccine from Coxin Biologics is only 50 percent effective. A study in Brazil last month showed that the Coxsone product was at least 50 percent effective. Pfizer said in November that its vaccine candidate tested more than 90 percent effective.
Alaral argued that “Duterte is hedging his risk at 50 percent, so why would anyone choose Coxin Bio’s if Pfizer’s (Pfizer) vaccine is also going to be available?”
The Philippine Star website reported on Dec. 27 that Duterte threatened late last month that the Philippines would cancel the Visiting Forces Agreement with the U.S. if the U.S. failed to provide at least 20 million doses of the vaccine. Duterte has repeatedly threatened to cancel the agreement, which allows U.S. troops to enter the Philippines with virtually no restrictions.
The Duterte administration said about a year ago that it would cancel the 21-year-old agreement, a process that has been suspended twice. Analysts say Duterte wants to renegotiate the broader defense relationship and focus more on suppressing armed rebel groups. The Philippines has seen the United States as a key defense ally since the 1950s.
Cases of coronavirus infection in the Philippines have declined since peaking in August. However, a quarantine quarantine order for Metro Manila and nine other regions in the Philippines is in place until Jan. 30 due to the discovery of a variant of the virus from the United Kingdom. The Philippines has recorded about 474,000 cases and more than 9,244 deaths.
Cases of NCCP continue to grow in Indonesia. The populous Southeast Asian country has reported about 743,000 cases and more than 22,000 deaths from New Coronary Pneumonia. Indonesia is also looking for sources of vaccine outside of China.
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