You are in the greenhouse in the north in four seasons, while I am in the south but frozen into a dog, which sounds like a paragraph, but is in the real occurrence.
Recently, Hubei Zhejiang and then the electricity restriction storm, some Yiwu citizens said, because the air conditioner can not open, has frozen into a dog, in the street street lights are not available.
Electricity is the most critical indicator of a country, if the demand for electricity is not enough supply, a country’s economy is affected. Generally in the summer there will be a shortage of electricity, but in this year is different, winter are beginning to pull the plug on electricity.
The production of any product can not be separated from electricity, let people did not expect that the electricity shortage but suddenly appeared.
High-speed growth of China’s electricity
China’s electricity demand before the founding of New China was only 1.76KW, after the reform and opening up of 1982, when the electricity demand was 1.8 million KW, but after China’s accession to the WTO, the electricity demand is growing at an average annual growth rate of about 10%.
By 2009, it exceeded 800 million KW, and under the implementation of the “Belt and Road” strategy, China’s electricity demand had reached 1.6 billion KW by the end of 2016, ranking the 2nd in the world.
The high growth of electricity demand is a rare phenomenon in the history of world electricity development.
To ensure the stability of China’s electricity demand, China carried out three power market reforms from 1982 when the power market was established to 2002, gradually developing from a market in which power generation, transmission, distribution and supply are integrated to a power supply market and a power demand market in which power generation and transmission, distribution and supply are separated.
From 2000 to 2002, there was a high growth of electricity demand, which may be related to China’s accession to WTO.
In 2002, China’s power demand management started to develop towards intensification, and with the implementation of the policy of separation of plant and network, the market of power demand was put under the operation of power grid companies.
After that, with the full opening of China’s economy, the rapid economic development, as the economic development “pioneer” of the electric power industry is lagging behind the situation, the lack of power demand, in order to ensure that the residents of life with electricity, the state had to take measures to industrial power pulling restrictions.
In 2002, the number of provinces (cities) with power cuts was 12, but in 2004, it was expanded to 24 provinces (cities), and the shortage of power demand would bring huge losses to China’s economic development. Although the power demand spent a smooth period in the following years, the alarm of power demand shortage was sounded again in 2010, when the power demand shortage reached 31 million kWh.
At the beginning of 2011, the country began to advocate “green power”, to ensure the supply of electricity demand on the basis of transforming the structure of the electricity market, to promote the implementation of a low-carbon economy and energy saving and emission reduction. The country’s energy consumption and pollution measures are also beginning to bear fruit, with smart grids, automated grids, low energy consumption and clean power generation units, and China’s power demand structure tends to rationalize.
The improvement of grid transportation speed and grid quality, cross-regional and national networking projects and the development of ultra-high voltage ensure the stability of power demand. The “One Belt, One Road” has also enabled China’s power industry to go global, while China has also strengthened its cooperation with international exchanges. The country has also opened up international trade in the power industry.
Foreign capital is encouraged to enter the Chinese power market to promote the rational allocation of resources in the Chinese power market. The international cooperation and exchange in the power industry has also allowed China to learn from the management experience of the international advanced power demand, and with the implementation of a series of national measures, no major power pulling and restriction has occurred in China after 2014.
The 2008 Beijing Olympic Games, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit, the G20 Hangzhou Summit, and the Xiamen BRICS Summit were held with smooth electricity demand, and the country’s industrial production and residential electricity consumption were not affected, indicating that the country’s regulation and control policy on electricity demand received initial results.
According to the report “China’s Medium and Long-term Power Generation Capacity and Electricity Demand Development Forecast”, it is estimated that China’s total social electricity demand will reach about 8 trillion kilowatt hours by 2025, and the electricity demand will grow at an average annual rate of more than 7%, and China’s electricity demand will take about 30 to 35 years to reach saturation, and the saturated electricity demand will be about 14 trillion kilowatt hours. At present, China’s electricity demand is still in a rising state.
China’s electricity demand has embarked on a comprehensive, stable and high-speed development path. It is only a matter of time before China becomes a world powerhouse, and the amount of electricity demand can guarantee the high speed development of China’s social economy and escort the rapid development of China’s social economy.
Under the current series of policies adopted, the power supply has improved, but the power demand is still in a relatively tight state and has not been completely solved.
Electricity demand of three major industries
In 2006, China’s electricity consumption structure in the secondary industry accounted for about 71% of the total social electricity consumption, the tertiary industry only accounted for 11.19%, from the urban and rural electricity demand structure, rural electricity demand for 4.9%, much lower than the urban electricity demand 8.04%.
In terms of industry classification, light industry in the secondary industry accounts for the majority of electricity consumption, accounting for 68.6% of the demand for electricity in the secondary industry.
After 2006, the country encouraged the development of high-tech industries and national entrepreneurship. In this context, the proportion of China’s industrial structure has also changed, and the proportion of electricity demand for residential use is growing.
By the end of 2016, the proportion of electricity demand in the tertiary industry in China increased to 32%, while the demand for electricity in the secondary industry decreased to 64.1%, and the demand for electricity in industry decreased significantly, but industrial electricity is still the main body of China’s electricity demand.
As China’s urbanization accelerates, a large number of farmers go to work in the cities, so the proportion of rural electricity demand further decreases to 3.9%.
The primary industry of the three industries, agriculture, accounts for the smallest proportion of electricity demand, agriculture is mainly manual and mechanized, and the power of mechanization is mainly fuel.
Industry is the main driving force of China’s economic development, and is also the main industry of electricity demand, in a pivotal position.
China’s industrial electricity demand reached 64.1% in 2016, down from 66.3% in 2013, 66% in 2014, and 65.3% in 2015, and a significant downward trend compared to 84% in 1997 and 71% in 2006.
The overall industrial electricity demand in China shows a decreasing trend, but the share of light industry in the overall industrial electricity demand shows an increasing trend and heavy industry shows a decreasing trend.
The period from 1997 to 2002 was a period of comprehensive economic opening in China, during which China’s economic development was dominated by industry and the rapid development of heavy industry, with some state-owned enterprises mainly in heavy industry in the expansion stage of production scale.
However, after China’s accession to the WTO, from 2002 to 2008, foreign trade developed rapidly, China also gradually transformed its industrial structure, and the demand for industrial electricity grew, some private enterprises developed rapidly, and the growth rate of light industry was significantly higher than that of heavy industry.
From 2008 to 2016, under the pressure of environmental protection, China gradually shut down some heavy industrial enterprises with high energy consumption and pollution, and strongly supported some light industries with low energy consumption and no pollution. Although the overall proportion of secondary industry has decreased, the overall industrial electricity demand in China is growing, indicating that China’s economy is now growing trend, the economic growth is still dominated by industry, and industry is still the industry with the highest electricity demand in China.
At present, the development of China’s industry to the tertiary industry, the proportion of tertiary industry electricity demand gradually increased.
In the process of social electricity demand growth, residential life electricity demand also maintains a consistent growth trend. Since 2002, the electricity demand of residential life has been growing at an average rate of 7% per year, which is significantly higher than the 3% growth rate of the whole society’s electricity demand.
Electricity is not only about the industry, but also about the living experience of the residents.
Outstanding structural contradiction problem
Before 2002, the electric power industry has been the implementation of the government unified management, the government and enterprises in a unified mode of power, power production and marketing management are unified management by the government, unified funding, is in an absolute monopoly position.
After 2002, the country began to market-oriented, the implementation of the power industry system reform to separate the government and enterprises, plant and network. The power industry was transformed into an enterprise, with the separation of power generation and supply, and the Electricity Supervision and Administration Commission was established.
Although the state has reformed the power industry system, the power enterprises are still under state control and some private enterprises are allowed to enter the power industry, but the state still has absolute control over the power industry.
China’s electric power industry is still developing, and all aspects are still not perfect, so some measures of electric power price protection have been formulated before, and nowadays, in the face of the electric power market reform, the unreasonableness of electric power price setting has been exposed.
Because the electricity price mechanism has not been straightened out for a long time, resulting in the situation of power pulling, in addition to hydropower to the water is not good, the main reason is not the lack of installed power caused by the “hard” lack of electricity, but the power price mechanism caused by the “soft” lack of electricity or called “system” lack of electricity.
Due to the price mechanism for a long time did not straighten out, thermal power enterprises large losses, production enthusiasm is suppressed.
From the current monitoring situation, some of the production capacity of the central and western provinces due to the low price of thermal power, coal prices, and other problems in the shutdown state.
China’s management of coal has been completely market-oriented, the price of coal is adjusted accordingly under the changes of the market environment. However, China’s electricity market has been under a planned economy system before. Due to global inflation, coal prices have risen, and the price of coal directly affects the interests of power companies.
In the case of soaring coal prices, the price of electricity will remain unchanged, leading to serious losses for power companies and concentrated conflicts between coal and electricity, which is the trigger for a new type of power shortage.
In the future for a long time, coal is still the main source of energy for electricity, the focus of the conflict between coal and electricity in the price, that is, the “plan electricity” and “market coal” problem. If the coal problem is not solved as soon as possible, the balance of power supply and demand will be very fragile, “power shortage” will be triggered by different reasons and continue to appear.
China’s power consumption is basically in the eastern economically developed provinces, such as: the coastal provinces of Jiangsu and Zhejiang, Chongqing, Hunan and other provinces of rapid economic development, these places are also varying degrees of power shortages.
The east can not supply enough electricity due to some of the above reasons, while the west can not meet the supply of electricity due to transmission problems.
Therefore, China’s power supply and demand is a structural contradiction problem, perhaps will always exist.
Recent Comments