- On December 14, the UK health Secretary said that a new strain of New Coronavirus with a 70% increase in infectivity is spreading at an accelerated rate in parts of England. This super variant is the most infectious variant reported to date and is causing global concern.
The epidemic has led to “alienation” between countries and regions, and European countries have imposed travel restrictions on the United Kingdom since December 20, but this has only had a limited effect on controlling the spread of the new strain.
- On December 19, the Chinese Embassy in the U.S. website urgently adjusted the double negative test, again making it more difficult for Chinese to return home. Since China’s entry quarantine and isolation has been strictly adhered to, the chances of the UK variant virus spreading within China are minimal.
- The New Coronavirus has been mutating since the emergence of the New Coronavirus outbreak. The only way to avoid a catastrophe is to eliminate the epidemic as soon as possible.
The truth about the “super variant virus” in the UK.
Is the ban on flights from more than 20 countries an exaggeration of the virus threat?
China issues the strictest entry order in its history
On December 14, British Health Secretary Matt Hancock said that a new strain of a new coronavirus called VUI-202012/01 was spreading faster in parts of England.1 On February 19, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced that the UK would take stricter blockade measures because the new strain was 70 percent more infectious, and that London would be closed before Christmas. When the news broke, 300,000 people flocked out and performed a Christmas virus exodus.
Is the mutation of the virus that scary?
The New Coronavirus has been mutating since the emergence of the New Coronavirus outbreak. 270,000 data have been submitted so far by researchers to GISAID, a database that collects the genetic sequences of the New Coronavirus. The analysis of 3510 of these viral genomes has revealed that the viruses can be evolutionarily classified into 8 families: GR, GH, G, GV, S, O, L, V. The differences between the different families are not so much between human and ape, but between Zhao, Qian, Sun and Li.
Figure/ Evolutionary tree of new coronavirus variants (Source: GISAID)
As long as the epidemic exists, the virus will continue to mutate and there will be more and more clades of viruses, as expected. What was not expected, however, was that after the news came out, from December 20 onwards, European countries took action against the UK.
The Netherlands was the first to ban passenger flights from the UK, effective until January 1 next year. Belgium is not only stopping flights, but also trains. Italy will not only stop flights, but also ban travelers who have been to the UK within the next 14 days.
France, Ireland, Austria, and Bulgaria, have all announced travel bans, and Portugal has announced that it will not accept visitors from the UK, except for its own citizens and residents.
Germany and Switzerland have not only stopped travel to and from the UK, but have also restricted travel from South Africa, where a similar mutant strain called “501.V2” has emerged.
Outside of Europe, Israel and Iran have also announced some related travel restrictions.
Meanwhile, the United Kingdom has declared a “city closure” for London and the southeast of England, where London is located, due to the emergence of a new strain in that area. The “closure” currently affects 16 million people, or a quarter of the UK population. Because of this “closure” order, there are reports that the “Great Escape from London” is underway.
Of course, the British city closure is not comparable to the Wuhan city closure in terms of strength, but is actually just a restriction. In this “Level 4” restriction area, people are not allowed to leave their homes and go to Christmas parties elsewhere.
The epidemic changed overnight, and Hong Kong, China, announced that it would be closed to flights on the 22nd. There was speculation in the media that mainland China would also announce a ban on flights to the UK. However, the matter was not confirmed before press time. It is understood that from Nov. 1 to Dec. 16, there were about eight flights a week from the U.K. to mainland China, and since China’s entry quarantine and isolation has been strictly adhered to, the chances of the U.K. variant of the virus spreading within China should be minimal. Nevertheless, on December 19, the Chinese Embassy in the U.S. website issued an urgent notice to adjust the double negative test for the second time. 1. antibody tests must be taken from venous blood, 2. passengers going to China must be sampled at the departure point of the direct flight, 3. and must be tested at the designated location!
Most of the Chinese who are currently in the UK and are preparing to return home are watching the Chinese Embassy’s website closely to see if they will be issued with broken flights or new testing rules.
Photo/ New variant of coronavirus is spreading rapidly in the UK
The description “70% increase in transmission” is not difficult to ascertain.
Why is the virus mutation making so many countries so nervous?
Where did it come from and how many times did it mutate?
The new strain has 14 mutation sites, seven of which occur in the S protein of the new coronavirus-infected cells, but what is making countries around the UK nervous is the 70% increase in the spread of this new mutant strain. A point mutation N501Y (the amino acid at position 501 of the S protein changed from N to Y), which this new strain has, has previously been shown to increase the binding of the S protein to receptors on cells, increasing the efficiency of the virus to invade cells.
Because of the increased transmission, an increasing proportion of people diagnosed with the infection are being infected by this strain. The proportion of new infections in London is now over 60% of new viruses, compared to 28% in the last month.
If left unchecked, the super-contagiousness of the new strain will infect more people and an increasing percentage of the infected population will carry the virus.
Viral mutations are occurring almost daily, with different new coronavirus variants reported in more than 10 countries so far this year, including China, South Africa, the United States and the United Kingdom, but the super variant in the United Kingdom is causing global concern, mainly because it is rapidly replacing other versions of the virus as the most infectious variant reported so far.
The WHO is collecting traces of this variant in various countries as a way to model its global infection.
Figure/The super variant has been named “VUI-202012/01. Scientists currently believe that the vaccine has some inhibitory effect on this virus
But is there really a need to panic about this strain? Or will the current travel restrictions imposed by these countries on the UK be able to contain the spread of the new strain?
Unfortunately, these travel restrictions do not stand up to this soul-crushing question.
If you think about it, you will understand that since 28% of the people infected in London last month had the new strain, it has already spread to other countries due to the lack of travel restrictions. In fact, the new strain was collected from patients in the UK as early as September.
The current viral nucleic acid test, which is only a qualitative test, can confirm that the patient is infected with the virus, but the specific genetic sequence of the strain is not known. To know exactly what the sequence is, genetic sequencing is required.
“If you don’t test it, you won’t know it”, researchers in the Netherlands also found this new strain in samples collected in early December, and Denmark, and even Australia, have detected this mutation.
Waiting a few more days, the phenomenon that is sure to occur in countries around the world, probably the list of countries where this virus appears, will become longer and longer.
In addition, the expression “a 70% increase in transmission” is not clear. The new coronavirus keeps changing, so which strain of virus is used as a reference?
The D614G mutant that appeared in Europe before was already said to have increased infectivity by 3 to 9 times. Today’s mutation should be a further 70% increase on top of that 3 to 9 times. 70% sounds like a lot, but the increase is less than a factor of 1.
Thinking about it another way, the virus is not currently reported in the United States, but there are over 200,000 confirmed cases every day. What strain is circulating in the United States right now? Is this strain in the UK spreading well, or is it the US strain?
The Danish government ordered the culling of 15-17 million mink in the country, but a few days later, the Danish Prime Minister apologized in parliament and withdrew the culling order, and the Danish Minister of Agriculture resigned because he “ordered the cull without a legal basis.
These current travel restrictions on the UK are also an overreaction to the tensions of the epidemic.
The fear, so to speak, is not so much that a new strain has emerged, but why the virus is still prevalent.
Photo/ Nearly 300,000 people fleeing London as the city is closed at midnight on December 19, this is the crowd waiting to leave in front of Paddington station
Photo/ 11 countries and regions, including Germany and France, have announced a ban on flights to the UK
The New Coronavirus, a virus that “alienates” people.
The flight ban may not be able to control the spread of the super-alien virus
The movement of people is a major cause of the spread of the virus, and by limiting the movement of people, the spread of the virus will be limited. Although the travel restrictions on the UK are “excessive”, they will have some effect on controlling the outbreak.
It is also understandable that countries are currently looking for an excuse to tighten travel restrictions. But if you’re looking for an excuse, you can find one at your fingertips, because if you look hard enough, you can find a variant in any country with an outbreak that has a high rate of transmission at a particular time.
In February of this year, Biogen had a meeting in Boston and there was a cluster of infections, with more than 100 people attending the meeting, but these people brought the virus home and spread it to 29 states in the United States, as well as to Australia, Sweden, Slovakia and other countries, resulting in 300,000 related infections worldwide.
So, the epidemic of the virus not only leads to social estrangement between people, but also to “estrangement” between countries and regions.
In fact, it is not even necessary to check the genetic sequence of the virus, as long as there is an epidemic in one area, travel restrictions will be imposed in the surrounding areas.
In China, where there is no serious outbreak, travel restrictions are imposed for localized outbreaks because of the fear of a large-scale outbreak. These restrictions do not necessarily involve city closures or flight cuts, but sometimes just more nucleic acid testing and quarantine requirements, but anyone who has been to the affected area feels somehow “stigmatized”.
Moreover, because of the fear of viruses, human beings not only become alienated from each other, but also become afraid of the environment and food because of “environment to human” and “food to human”.
For example, when we heard that there was contamination in imported seafood, some people were calling for a ban on imported seafood!
Later, when it was discovered that not only seafood, but also frozen food, could easily bring viruses, some people were calling for: Please ban the import of frozen food!
Photo / With the closure of Wales, all non-essential stores have been closed. Stores empty before Christmas
What kind of mutation is a disaster?
How to prevent “environmental transmission” on New Year’s Day and Spring Festival holidays
If viruses are mutating every day, does it mean that there is no need to worry about the new mutations that appear? Actually, it is not true.
The current mutation of the new coronavirus is a quantitative change, and it should be said that there has not been a qualitative change that would bring disaster.
When is the qualitative change?
If the virus was mainly transmitted in animal hosts, but the mutation has resulted in the ability of “animal-to-human” transmission, then this mutation is a qualitative change.
Usually this “animal-to-human” ability is not likely to lead to a huge outbreak and is relatively easy to control. However, if the virus mutates further and the ability to pass from human to human emerges, that is a qualitative change. This is exactly why in January this year, when academician Zhong Nanshan told the media that there was a “human-to-human” epidemic in Wuhan, the national epidemic prevention measures were immediately upgraded.
As for “environmental transmission”, it is actually on the same level as “animal transmission”, if it was known 11 months ago that the new coronavirus has the ability of “human-to-human transmission”, there is no need for it to be “environmental transmission” nowadays. If it was known 11 months ago that Neocoronavirus has the ability to be “human-to-human”, there is no need to assume that the virus has undergone a qualitative change just because it was found to be “environmentally transmissible”. Of course, the necessary caution should be exercised.
These “qualitative changes” in the virus have already occurred, but what qualitative changes in the future will bring greater disasters?
Disaster 1: Increased pathogenicity
If the mutation of the virus, the proportion of infected people with serious illnesses increases, and the death rate also increases significantly, then it means that the disaster is coming.
At present, however, there is no indication that the rate of severe illness and mortality has increased significantly with the new UK mutant strain. On the new UK strain, there is a deletion in the ORF8 gene, and previous studies have shown that viruses with this deletion have less severe disease in patients after infection. However, because the new strain has 15 mutation sites at the same time, it is not known what the overall effect on symptoms will be.
If the mutation of the virus resulted in only asymptomatic infection, although much more infectious, it would be equivalent to giving humans a natural vaccine. Unfortunately, while this possibility exists, it is not something to expect too much of, otherwise it would be like expecting the new crown to disappear in the summer and ending up just desperate.
Disaster 2: Development of drug resistance
There are currently no specific drugs for the new crown virus. There are some drugs that work more or less well, but there is no evidence that the mutation has led to drug resistance at this point.
The UK just gave emergency approval to Pfizer’s mRNA vaccine earlier this month, and there is no evidence that this new UK strain will cause the vaccine to fail.
So while the virus is currently mutating all the time, the bigger catastrophes are yet to happen.
The only way to avoid these catastrophes is to eliminate the outbreak as soon as possible. But globally, it is currently impossible to force down the epidemic by non-medical means, and the only thing to count on is a vaccine.
So, in this sense, if the restrictions on travel, under any pretext, are worthwhile if they buy time for the vaccine to be rolled out.
The worst thing that can happen is that the person who cries “the wolf is coming” will not react when the wolf really comes, and then the disaster will really come.
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