Economists at Peking University estimate that more than 100 million people are unemployed in China.
The National Bureau of Statistics maintains the surveyed unemployment rate at around 6 percent, but Yao Yang, director of the National Institute of Development Studies at Peking University, has calculated that the national unemployment rate in China is as high as 20 percent, or more than 100 million people, because Chinese small and medium-sized enterprises have been seriously affected by the outbreak of the Communist Party virus. He disputes that the official unemployment figures are only for urban residents, and that the main group of unemployed is non-urban residents.
In an interview with Tencent, Yao Yang said that due to the impact of the epidemic, China’s economy has declined significantly, and many small and medium-sized enterprises, especially service enterprises, have to close down. For these small and medium-sized enterprises, whose profits are already very thin, it is difficult to recover after closing down. Some service companies may disappear forever, exacerbating the employment situation in China.
So far this year, the NBS has kept its surveyed unemployment rate at around 6 percent, but Yao said the figures refer to the urban population, while the main group of unemployed is the non-urban population. No official figures are available. In an online survey of more than 6,000 people conducted by Yao and his team in late June, the unemployment rate was 15%, with a further 5% of respondents being underemployed. As there are more than 700 million employed people in China, according to the 20% unemployment rate according to the survey, there will be more than 100 million unemployed people in China.
Yao Yang also pointed out that although the government has taken measures such as issuing consumption vouchers, the effect and retention are not enough, and the government’s policy support for the demand side is far less than that for the supply side.
The recent defaults by aaA-rated soes are a sign that regulators are deliberately “tentatively releasing risk” and sending a strong signal to the market that “the belief in soes is gone,” Yao said. Another advantage is that it has been difficult to reform soes for many years. The biggest problem is that they have too much debt. Several companies that defaulted this time, such as Shenyang Machine Tool and Huachen Group, owed astronomical amounts of debt, so it was much easier for such companies to go bankrupt and reorganize after they defaulted.
As for the suspension of ant Financial’s listing, Yao Yang believes that ant Financial has played a direct financial role by using the risk control system to lend money to banks. This is after all a kind of innovation, can not be denied completely.
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