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Spot gold fell first and then rose this week, with the lowest drop below $1820 to $1819.03 on Monday, and then began to rebound with force, rising for three days in a row, even saber to the $1900 mark on Thursday, touching a weekly high of $1896.11, narrowing the volatility on Friday. As of press time Friday night, spot gold was hovering around $1,886.
Spot silver rose even more, up 4% on Wednesday to $25, and then took the $26 mark on Thursday, but as of press time Friday night, spot silver fell back to near this mark.
Some people in the currency market are happy, some people are sad, the dollar index performance is dismal, the first four days all the way down, Thursday lost 90 mark, a new low of more than two and a half years, but Friday a slight rebound.
The British pound against the U.S. dollar opened Monday jumped 130 points, Tuesday shock upward, overnight continued to pull up more than the daily low rose more than 180 points, Wednesday broke through the 1.35 mark, Thursday once above the 1.36 mark, but Friday turned back down, and lost 1.35 mark, and now continue to move downward under this mark. EURUSD began to stabilize on Thursday after breaking through the 1.22 handle at one point on Wednesday.
Concerned about the international oil prices, the U.S. and Bu oil this week happy to mention four positive, WTI crude oil on Monday and Tuesday to try to stabilize $ 47 unsuccessfully, finally succeeded on Wednesday, Thursday is to take down the $ 48 mark, touching $ 48.58 / barrel weekly high, Brent crude oil on Thursday also stood on $ 51 / barrel, the weekly high of $ 51.87 / barrel, approaching $ 52.
The domestic commodity market was crazy, and on Monday, the main contract for Zheng coal (power coal) futures fell quickly after the opening bell, while coking coal also fell more than 4%. By Friday the reversal of the market, commodity futures rose sharply across the board, with the main power coal futures stopping and the main iron ore contract eventually closing up 6.23%.
The cryptocurrency market got even crazier, with bitcoin breaking two $1,000 levels in a row in one day on Thursday, topping $23,777 before dipping overnight to the $23,000 mark, but returning above that point on Friday.
The three major U.S. stock indexes fell before rising to record highs on Thursday under the influence of optimistic progress in stimulus deal talks intertwined with poor economic data. Friday is the options expiration date “four witching day”, coupled with tesla will be officially “enlisted” in the S&P 500 at the opening of next Monday, the U.S. market on Friday need to be alert to volatility is magnified.
[Weekly Events
01 Fed cautiously put doves
The Fed’s interest rate resolution showed that the Fed did not issue specific guidance on bond purchases, saying only that it would maintain asset purchases until substantial progress is made toward full employment and price stability goals. And Powell later reiterated that the Fed may expand the size of the bond purchase program and change the duration of bond holdings, and will provide guidance before taking actual action to scale back bond purchases.
The Fed also extended its temporary dollar liquidity swap and temporary repurchase agreement tools until next September, helping to boost the international supply of dollars and the smooth functioning of the U.S. Treasury market.
02 U.S. citizens have no money to spend and look to the stimulus bill to “renew their lives”
U.S. retail sales in November unexpectedly recorded a monthly rate of -1.1%, the first time since April fell into negative territory, the United States to December 12 when the week’s initial jobless claims also unexpectedly increased significantly, recorded 885,000, a new high since the week of October 10, but has been 16 consecutive weeks below 1 million. The depressed U.S. economy is waiting for the stimulus bill to “renew” its life.
On Monday, the U.S. Congress divided the $908 billion stimulus bill into two, of which the first part of the $748 billion scale of negotiations is progressing well and is expected to be introduced on Friday or over the weekend, but the state and local government funding assistance bill, the liability provisions of this part of the bipartisanship is still controversial.
On the other hand, as the one-week temporary spending bill will expire at midnight on the 18th, Congress urgently needs to extend the short-term spending bill to avoid a White House shutdown, otherwise even the stimulus bill negotiations cannot be reached.
03 FDA gives go-ahead to Pfizer vaccine, Europe and US enter mass vaccination phase
Last Friday evening local time, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) officially approved Pfizer/BioNTech New Crown vaccine emergency use permit application. The FDA also recommended approval of the emergency use authorization for Moderna’s New Crown vaccine, which is expected to be formally approved later this Friday.
Another major pharmaceutical giant, AstraZeneca, announced that it will acquire Alexion for $39 billion, setting a new record for annual acquisitions in the pharmaceutical industry and creating the largest acquisition of the year, which will be dedicated to the development of drugs for rare diseases.
04 Britain and Europe continue intensive negotiations, both sides have prepared for both hands
The UK and EU agreed on Monday to cancel the scheduled 13-day “deadline” to continue intensive negotiations, with the British side having watered down a key demand for post-Brexit fishing rights and promising to withdraw all controversial internal market bills. The EU-UK Joint Committee meeting adopted a formal decision (on Brexit) and a practical solution.
The EU Parliament this week set another deadline of this Sunday for negotiations, saying that only if an agreement is reached no later than Sunday evening can the EU Parliament formally approve the deal before the end of the transition period on December 31. Both sides are now ready for a no-deal Brexit.
The Bank of England’s interest rate resolution on the 17th also hinted at acting quietly pending the outcome of Brexit, ready to accelerate the pace of asset purchases if needed, and stressed that the pound exchange rate could fall if EU trade talks fail to reach a deal.
05 crude oil supply and demand is still imbalanced, but can not stop crude oil bulls
OPEC’s monthly report noted that OPEC members implemented 104% of the production cut agreement in November; oil production increased by 710,000 barrels to 25.11 million barrels in November, driven by Libya’s economic recovery, while the IEA monthly report said that the crude oil supply glut will last until the end of 2021 due to tight demand.
An explosion occurred Monday when a tanker was attacked by terrorists while unloading at a port in the Saudi Arabian city of Jeddah. According to the Associated Press, it was the fourth attack on oil and gas facilities in Saudi Arabia in the past month. Saudi Arabia said the attack had no impact on fuel supplies.
[Risk Warning].
- There are several high frequency economic data to be released in the US next week.
Next Tuesday at 21:30, the final annualized quarterly U.S. real GDP for the third quarter will be released, with the expected and previous value both at 33.10%. Also released will be the final quarterly U.S. real personal consumption expenditures for the third quarter and the final annualized quarterly U.S. core PCE price index for the third quarter.
Next Wednesday will be released the U.S. initial jobless claims for the week of December 19, after three consecutive weeks of rebound. Also to be announced will be the U.S. core PCE price index annualized rate for November, expected to be 1.4%, in line with the previous value; the U.S. monthly personal spending rate for November, expected to be -0.1%, the previous value of 0.5%; the U.S. core PCE price index monthly rate for November and the U.S. monthly durable goods orders for November are expected to rise from the previous value.
In the oil market, API and EIA crude oil inventories will be released on Wednesday for the week of December 18. Last week, the two data “fought” again, with API recording an increase and EIA recording a decrease.
Due to the Christmas holiday, the total number of oil drilling wells for the week of December 25 will be released earlier on Thursday at 2:00 am.
NYMEX New York crude oil January futures are affected by the shift for the month, December 22 at 3:30 am to complete the last trading on the field, 6:00 am to complete the last trading on the electronic market, please pay attention to the trading venue expiration for the month announcement to control the risk. In addition, some trading platforms U.S. oil contract expiration time is usually one day earlier than the official NYMEX, please pay more attention.
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