Can China’s economy, battered by the epidemic and trade wars, be saved by boosting domestic demand and driving the “internal cycle”? Is eating tea eggs really a luxury for many Chinese? According to a poll released by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, 44.4 percent of respondents spent only 1,000 yuan on leisure and recreation in the past year, or an average of 83 yuan per person per month.
The findings, together with official figures released earlier this year, raise questions about the integrity of China’s overall poverty reduction and the credibility of its indoor-driven, dual-cycle development strategy. Foreign media bluntly say that China’s claim to double per capita GDP by 2035 is unrealistic. (Edited: China’s PER capita GDP is about one third of Taiwan‘s.)
The green Book on Leisure was released by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences’ Institute of Financial And Economic Strategy, the Tourism Research Center of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, and the Social Sciences Academic Press, VOA reported. The 2019-2020 China Leisure Development Report points out that in the past year, the average annual leisure consumption of Chinese people was 5647 yuan (about 24,302 Taiwan dollars), and the consumption expenditure was between 1,001 yuan and 3,000 yuan, accounting for 22.7 percent, 3,001 yuan to 5,000 yuan, 11.1 percent, and 11.8 percent, respectively, of more than 10,000 yuan. As for those who spend 1,000 yuan or less a year on leisure, a whopping 44.4% — or about 620 million people across China — have less than NT $360 a month to spend on fun.
Reports that if measured against China’s state council premier li keqiang may points out, China has a population of 600 million monthly income of only 1000 yuan, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences is shown in the survey, the vast majority of people in China not only earn less, less than basic overhead cost, and the gap between the rich and the poor problem can be quite serious. This is a denial of the milestone that Xi Jinping‘s regime has declared that “China has been lifted out of poverty and completed the building of a moderately prosperous society in all respects since this year”.
The scholastic research associate in the Taiwan Wu Mingze told the voice of America, can be seen from the survey, the majority of Chinese people is still mainly in the basic life consumption, rare leisure consumption, and low-income population proportion is still high, coupled with the gap between rich and poor is serious, it was hard to believe that China has done comprehensive poverty alleviation, and enter the stage of a well-off society in an all-round way. Instead, the gap between rich and poor in China is widening, and workers are feeling increasingly cut off.
According to Wu, the 333 principle is a basic guideline for a well-off society, meaning that a well-off family will spend a third of its income on basic food and clothing, another third on savings, and the last third on enjoyment of life and entertainment.
He said the poll showed that perhaps more than 60 percent of China’s population, or 940 million people, spend less than 3,000 yuan a year on leisure, which means they live from hand to mouth. It is hardly a well-off society. Therefore, China plans to enter the stage of medium-developed country by 2035, that is, to increase its per capita GDP from the current us $10,000 to US $20,000. Wu mingze also believes that it will be quite difficult for China to maintain its annual economic growth rate at around 5%. Given the size of China’s economy today, he says, the experience of large economies is that growth usually declines only year after year, unless the Communist party makes up for the shortfall by increasing government investment.
However, Wu stressed that “many of China’s data are based on embellishments or special calculations, and their credibility is questionable.” For example, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics, China’s surveyed urban unemployment rate has been falling this year, standing at about 5.3% in October, and unemployment has been gradually improving since the outbreak. But Wu Mingze thinks, this data is serious distortion.
“China’s unemployment rate cannot be only 6 to 7 percent, it should be at least 10 percent, 10 to 15 percent,” he said. “I think it’s all possible, because you can’t survey [migrant workers’ unemployment] exactly in rural areas like this. This is the first one.” Second, it is quite serious for a foreign businessman from the mainland to leave.”
Wang Changcheng, director of the Institute of Labor Economics at Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, calculates that China’s unemployment rate, even if migrant workers are added to the total, should climb only slightly to about 7 percent. He said China’s unemployment rate is moderate, the labor market is affected by the impact of a smaller number of children and an aging society, and the overall supply of manpower is increasingly short. In particular, the employment market is affected by the industrial transformation and presents structural challenges. In other words, after the transformation and upgrading of some industries, different skills are required, making it difficult for some jobs to find good ones and some unemployed people to find suitable jobs again.
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