The party has pinned its hopes of economic salvation on Mr Biden, in an unprecedented and difficult economic situation. But if Mr Biden turns out to be no good, the party will be no good. Trump’s unfavorable policies towards the Communist Party will not only continue, but also escalate, which will further aggravate the party’s difficulties.
First, the Party’s economic woes have worsened
The communist Party’s economy is in serious trouble and can’t be rescued by economic policies alone.
As wang xing, CEO of Meituan, famously said last year, “2019 was the worst year of the past 10 years, but the best year of the next 10.” That turned out to be true, and this year the Party saw an incurable economic crisis. Any country’s economy can only rely on domestic consumption, domestic investment and exports of the “troika” to support. China’s economy has been on a downward slope since 2018. The “three horses” driving the economy — exports, consumption and investment — have collapsed, and the only domestic investment that the Communist Party of China hopes for has also recently collapsed.
The Communist Party has long relied on blind export expansion to sustain a temporary boom in the domestic economy, but exports have been severely hampered this year. The outlook for exports next year remains bleak, though exports rose slightly in November as U.S. businesses stocked up to avoid a repeat of the epidemic in China and domestic exporters rushed to book shipping space at great expense in the face of soaring international shipping costs. Foreign companies have fled the country in droves, and the rest of the export business is getting harder to sustain. In the export industrial zones of Shenzhen and Guangzhou, a large number of factories have been left empty, and factories have even been demolished to make way for houses.
On the domestic consumption side, with unemployment rising sharply and wages starting to fall, the working families are having to tighten their belts and tighten their belts as their incomes are no longer guaranteed. After the outbreak of the epidemic in Winter and spring, the catering industry did not usher in “retaliatory consumption”, but ushered in the “retaliatory saving” of customers. Young consumers who used to be quite generous have obviously weakened their spending power and willingness. The prevailing mantra in the domestic restaurant business these days is, it’s all about survival. In the shopping districts of many cities, shops are closing and fashion shops are empty, replaced by vast stalls selling clearance goods struggling to survive.
Ii. Financial Risk “Grey Rhino”
There is little the Communist Party can do to boost exports and consumption, and the only remaining means of boosting the economy, continued property development, is self-harming.
Over the past decade or so, the Communist Party has used infrastructure investment to drive property development, with more than 40 per cent of bank loans going into the property sector. Combined with peer-to-peer lending, domestic investment has long been property-oriented. Now that the road has come to an end, there are fewer and fewer new real estate buyers, and many real estate enterprises are in a tight capital chain; But the real estate industry depression caused the real estate company’s bank bad debts to rise rapidly, has seriously dragged down the banking industry, the shadow of the financial crisis began to appear. In this parlous state, the Communist Party has had to tighten financial regulation to prevent banks from collapsing.
Last year the Communist Party began regulating P2P lending, and the Internet finance industry exploded. On November 28, The China Economic Network reported that “the number of P2P lending institutions in operation nationwide has gradually dropped from about 5,000 at the peak to zero by mid-November this year.” Many people invested their savings in P2P lending, only to lose all their money. On Nov. 30, the Shanghai Securities News reported that Guo Shuqing, chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, had published an article saying that real estate was the ‘gray rhino’ with the biggest financial risk in China at this stage. The term “gray rhino” comes from economist Michelle Walker’s Book, “Gray Rhino: How to Deal with A High-probability Crisis.” It refers to a high-probability and high-impact potential crisis.
Instead of driving the economy and motivating people to buy homes, China’s real estate sector has become the source of the financial crisis that authorities fear. Banks may be able to fend for themselves in the short term, but the housing boom is gone. It’s not yet a full-blown real-estate panic, but that’s the end of the road to investment and economic stimulus.
When a country’s exports are blocked, consumption is tightened, and investment has nowhere to go, its economy and employment will only decline day by day, and misery lies ahead. This is a tough time not only for the people, especially the middle and lower classes, but also for governments at all levels of the Communist Party. The Party faces many difficult years ahead that are still hard to imagine.
- Biden saves the Communist Party?
The Chinese communist Party is hoping that Mr Biden will get out of trouble by making a change in Us policy towards China. Recently, Chinese Communist Party diplomats have made three speeches in which they made a request to the Panda-hugging faction in the United States, hoping to draw a line in the road for future china-U.S. relations.
‘To get relations back on track and achieve real improvement, both sides must show goodwill and sincerity,’ the Chinese Communist Party’s ambassador to the U.S. said Dec. 3 at the Center’s annual conference. There is no reason for China and the United States not to cooperate and reject a win-win future, Vice Foreign Minister Le Yucheng said at the China Think Tank International Influence Forum on Dec. 5. On December 7, Foreign Minister Wang Yi had a video exchange with representatives of the US-China Business Council and put forward a 12-word policy, namely, “to restart dialogue, get back on track and rebuild mutual trust”, as the goal of the next phase of China-Us relations. Wang also made demands on the DEVELOPMENT of China-Us relations. First, the US should abandon its Cold War mentality and ideological bias. The COMMUNIST Party of China expects and believes that the US policy towards China should return to objectivity and rationality sooner or later. Second, China and the United States should open dialogue at all levels. Third, China and the United States can find entry points for cooperation in tackling the epidemic, promoting economic recovery and tackling climate change.
The principles, guidelines and requirements for US diplomacy put forward by Chinese diplomats all focus on one point: the two sides must return to the Obama-era bilateral relationship, which is the so-called “objective and rational” model endorsed by the Chinese Communist Party; In this context, the Communist Party demands that dialogue be limited to epidemic prevention and control, the resumption of large-scale exports to the United States, and talk about climate change.
The Chinese communist party didn’t say it out, but obviously included in the above principles and requirements the essence of the idea behind this is that the United States must be abandoned completely trump all aspects of the policy toward China, such as do not pursue the responsibility of the spread, is not allowed to keep tariffs on China, the removal of China technology controls, cancel the limitation on the officials and China’s communist party member’s entry into the United States, cancel the limitation on the American investment to buy the company stock, give up the communist party of China on military preparedness, cancellation, spying on the Chinese communist party’s defensive, and so on. In a word, the Chinese Communist Party only accepts U.S. policies that are beneficial to the Chinese Communist Party, while Trump’s China policy must be completely corrected.
Why is the CCP’s list of u.s.-China relations so strong that it is tantamount to a complete reversal of the Trump administration’s China policy over the past four years? Because it assumes that Biden will come to the stage, and that Biden will certainly turn against China and be on the same side with the Chinese Communist Party on China policy. This year, however, the Chinese communist Party’s hopes for Mr. Biden have been in a tough spot.
The result of the US presidential election is not until January 6
In this presidential election, the count was seriously questioned after Revelations of massive electoral fraud, represented by several swing states. On December 7th the Texas attorney-general filed a lawsuit before the US Supreme Court challenging electoral procedures in Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, arguing that they violate the constitution. Nineteen state attorneys general followed suit. But on December 11th America’s Supreme Court refused to hear the case. At this point, the possibility of using the Judicial process of the United States Supreme Court to hear election disputes disappeared.
On December 14, the electoral College of each state legislature will meet separately to vote for the president and vice president designated by each state. But the outcome of the electoral College in several swing states, where state legislatures have serious doubts about the results submitted by state governments, is unclear. Regardless of who each state’s Electoral College votes for president, everything will have to wait until a joint session of Congress certifies each state’s electoral college results on January 6.
On December 16th America’s Senate Homeland Security Committee will hold a hearing on vote-rigging, the first in Congress on the subject in 2020, which will shed light on voter fraud in several states. The chairman of the committee, the state of Wisconsin republican senator Johnson (Ron Johnson), points out that a majority of americans believe that the outcome of the election in 2020 was illegal, obvious violations and has not yet been fully review, “the only way to solve the doubts is sufficient transparency and let people know, that will be the goal of hearing. The purpose of the hearings is to identify major issues in the election, ask questions, hope to provide some answers, and identify areas that need strengthening. “It’s not just about this election, it’s about future elections.” The hearing will have major implications for a joint session of the House and Senate on January 6.
On January 6, 2021, at 1 p.m., the President of the United States Senate will preside over a joint session of the U.S. Congress, and the 50 states will report to Congress on their electoral college electors for president and Vice president. At the statutory meeting, the United States constitution gives congress members a power, as long as members of congress have argued that the election in the state of a state or certain system is very bad, so can’t believe that these states to the United States congress election results, so the congress will not admit to submit the results of the state, they therefore have the right to overthrow any state level of the electoral college vote. When a member of the House of Representatives and a senator object to the electoral College results presented by any state, a separate full vote in the House and Senate is immediately triggered to accept or reject those electoral college votes presented by that state. Under federal law, debate in the House and Senate is limited to two hours.
- Biden and the CCP may not wait
In the afternoon of January 6, 2021, if the electoral College results of certain states are not acceptable, under the 12th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution, it will be up to the Federal House of Representatives to vote on the president and the United States Senate to decide the Vice President. In this case, the house of Representatives votes not on individual members as voters, but on a state-by-state basis, with state delegations voting. Each state delegation has one vote, and the person who wins a majority of the state delegation’s votes becomes president. Republicans control at least 26 of the 50 U.S. state delegations, giving Trump a majority of the votes he needs to win re-election.
If such an outcome occurs, the CCP will be very sad to have to continue to face President Trump, and all the current negotiation and negotiation between the CCP and the Panda hugs faction will be lost. As a result, the Party’s wishful thinking will be completely dashed. The party’s hopes of getting the economy out of its hole are pinned on Mr Biden. But if Biden turns out to be a white horse, so will the Chinese communist Party, and so will expectations of economic salvation. Trump’s unfavorable policies towards the Communist Party will not only continue, but also escalate and exacerbate the party’s difficulties.
The Party miscalculated from the start and is likely to face further pressure from the Trump administration on all fronts. However, the characteristic of the Chinese Communist Party is that the weaker and more aggressive it is, it will continue to expand its military and prepare for war, and such a strategic approach will only divert limited economic resources into endless military expenditures, further aggravating the people’s suffering.
Recent Comments