British and European leaders both say “no-deal” Brexit is very likely to occur

According to sources, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said at a meeting of the leaders of the 27 EU member states in Brussels on December 11 that the likelihood of a “no deal” Brexit in the EU-UK trade relationship at the end of this year is currently high. The EU’s trade relationship with the United Kingdom has a high probability of a “no deal” exit at the end of this year. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson also said, “It looks very, very likely.”

Von der Leyen opened the second day of meetings between EU leaders, which began Friday, with less than 10 minutes on the issue of Britain’s exit from the EU. She spent the entire evening last night negotiating with the British side, which included tackling climate change.

According to an EU official with knowledge of the situation, von der Leyen told the 27 leaders that “the situation is difficult. The main obstacles remain.” The official quoted von der Leyen as saying, “The probability of no deal (for Britain to leave the EU) is higher than the probability of a deal.” It went on to say that “it depends on whether the two sides are likely to reach an agreement by Sunday.”

The official also said the two sides in the negotiations made progress on implementing the earlier EU-UK Brexit deal, which has provisions on the Irish border after the U.K. leaves the EU. Britain left the EU in January, but remains an informal member until Dec. 31 – during which time it remains in the EU’s single market and customs union. Britain and Europe have said they want to reach an agreement on a post-Brexit trade relationship that would cover nearly $1 trillion a year in trade arrangements between the two sides. But negotiations are currently at an impasse and Britain may lose access to the huge European single market with zero tariffs and quotas.

In response, Johnson told the press on Friday, “It looks very, very likely that we will have to go for a solution, which I think would be fantastic for the UK, and we will be able to do what we want from January 1, which will obviously be different from what we set out to do.” Johnson’s presentation on the progress of the negotiations pointed out that “if there is a big offer, a big change in what they are saying, then I must say that I haven’t seen it.”