DoubleLine Capital Trader Jefferey Gundlach, known as the new bond king, predicts that the rally in large tech stocks will end in 2021, with smaller stocks lagging the broader market. In addition, he predicts that the U.S. inflation rate will bottom out and could rise above 2% in the coming months.
Heavyweight technology stocks, including Microsoft (MSFT-US) and the pointy-toothed stocks of Facebook (FB-US), Apple (AAPL-US), Amazon (AMZN-US), Netflix (NFLX-US), and Alphabet (GOOGL-US) (FAANG), no longer appear to be leading the market’s upside, Gonak predicts.
In contrast, the declining trend of U.S. small caps lagging the broader market (Russell 2000 underperforming the S&P 500) is finally coming to an end.
In addition, U.S. inflation will bottom out and could rise above 2% in the coming months, falling at 2.25-2.4% in 2021.
His view that inflation will remain high is at odds with most analysts on Wall Street, and according to a Bloomberg survey of 51 economists, U.S. inflation is likely to fall again next year after rising above 2% in the 2nd quarter, making it difficult to sustainably exceed the inflation target set by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed).
However, market participants expect vaccines to be widely administered, which will help unleash consumer power and accelerate the economic recovery.
Gonack also has the following predictions for 2021.
Neutral” on gold; but willing to buy gold at current prices if forced to do so.
The copper/gold ratio indicates that the yield on US 10-year bonds should be higher than it is today and that economic fundamentals and yield levels do not match.
The spread between bonds rated BBB and U.S. government bonds has narrowed. For investors, the payoff difference between buying BBB-rated bonds and 30-year U.S. bonds is small.
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