North Korea has apparently begun preparations for a major military parade next month, when experts believe it could unveil a major new weapons system, regional defense analysts say.
Satellite images from Aug. 31 show thousands of troops and hundreds of military vehicles parked near the Mirim Parade Training Ground, east of the capital Pyongyang. This is the usual location for North Korea’s military parade rehearsals.
According to 38 North, a U.S. think tank that publishes satellite imagery, North Korea’s military parades started later than usual this year, either because of the coronavirus epidemic or because of recent bad weather that has hit the North.
North Korea’s ruling Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK) is expected to hold a massive military parade on October 10, the 75th anniversary of the party’s founding. Such a commemoration is a major event in a single-party, quasi-Stalinist dictatorship.
Brand new weapons?
The annual celebration is also an opportunity for North Korea to showcase new weapons, which according to some experts could be new intercontinental missiles, a few weeks before the U.S. presidential election on Nov. 3.
Kim Dong-yub, a professor at Kyungnam University in Seoul and an expert on North Korea’s military, said, “The new solid-fueled ICBM may be on display during the military parade.” Some say the DPRK may display a new type of submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM).
Both technologies would add unpredictable new components to the DPRK’s military might. Solid fuel missiles are easier to transport and require less time to prepare for launch, while SLBMs are just as mobile and easier to conceal.
Earlier this year, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un said that he would soon demonstrate “a new set of strategic weapons.
New Crown and Other Concerns
But since Kim Jong-un’s comments, North Korea has had to contend with worse flooding than usual during the monsoon season, international sanctions that continue to hamper its economic development, and a new coronavirus pandemic that has spread around the world.
The DPRK has maintained for months that no one in its territory is infected with the coronavirus. However, the DPRK has quietly abandoned this claim, particularly in July, when a defector claiming to have returned to the DPRK may have brought the virus into the country after sneaking across the border from South Korea.
Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul, said that fears about the Sinocon virus and the recent flooding may be the reason why preparations for this year’s parade appear to be smaller than in previous years.
He said, “However, it could also be seen as a sign that the neo-coronavirus outbreak in the Pyongyang area is under control.”
Provocations Coming?
North Korea’s official media have vaguely hinted that the provocation was aimed at the U.S. election. However, Pyongyang may also be reluctant to risk jeopardizing the chances of an eventual resumption of nuclear negotiations.
Analysts believe that instead of a large-scale provocation, such as a missile launch or nuclear test, a military parade in which North Korea would display a new weapon would be less provocative on the surface.
U.S. President Donald Trump has warned Pyongyang to stop resuming long-range missile tests or nuclear tests, but he has brushed off smaller displays of military power, such as short-range ballistic missile launches.
It is unclear how Trump will respond to the display of new weapons at the military parade. However, Professor Kim Dong-yeol of Kyungnam University believes that the event is unlikely to be aimed directly at Washington.
He said, “In the U.S., they’ve been trying to link North Korea’s behavior to them, but it doesn’t work that way.” He said Pyongyang often uses the display of armaments to try to gain more leverage before negotiations. Kim Dong-yeol noted that North Korea has declared that it is not interested in resuming dialogue with Washington at this time.
President Trump and Kim Jong-un have met three times, including that June 2018 meeting when they signed a vague statement of commitment to denuclearization. However, working-level negotiations on actual implementation failed to make progress, and North Korea eventually left the negotiating table.
The U.S. president has said he would be willing to meet with Kim Jong-un before the November elections, but North Korean officials have said they are not interested in such a summit.
Kim Jong-un’s sister, Kim Yo Jong, said in July that she personally did not think the U.S. and North Korea would hold a summit this year.
But the increasingly powerful Kim said that the relationship between Trump and Kim Jong-un remains strong and may have prevented “extreme provocations.
She added: “We have no intention of threatening the United States. If they don’t touch us, if they don’t hurt us, everything will go on as normal.”
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