India and China may clash again over Kra Canal project

A new round of border clashes between India and China broke out on August 29-30, with India blocking Chinese applications three times and tensions rising in the military and technology sectors. There is speculation that the “battlefield” for the next India-China conflict could be the Kra Canal project between China and Thailand.

The Kra Canal is a canal dredged from the Kra Isthmus region of Thailand to connect the Gulf of Thailand in the Pacific Ocean with the Andaman Sea in the Indian Ocean. The canal is a vital and strategic link in Beijing’s “One Belt, One Road” initiative.

The excavation of the canal will fill the weakest link in China’s Indian Ocean strategy, the Strait of Malacca, which is currently not only the lifeline of China’s maritime trade, but also the Chinese Navy’s main route to South Asia and westward.

With the opening of the Kra Canal, the ASEAN trade zone’s sea routes will no longer pass through the Strait of Malacca, shortening the voyage by 700 miles, eliminating two to five days of shipping time, and also saving significant shipping costs. It is estimated that the project will cost $30 billion.

It has been reported that the Kra Canal will be an important strategic asset for China, and that the Kra Canal is in line with China’s ongoing naval encirclement plans for India. The Chinese navy is actively pushing westward into the Bay of Bengal and the Indian Ocean, opening an East African military and logistics base in Djibouti and conducting joint exercises with the navies of Myanmar, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Iran, and even Russia.

The Times of India reported on August 25 that India is planning a major upgrade of its air and naval facilities in Andaman and Andaman to target China. The strategic archipelago intersects the sea route from the Strait of Malacca into the Indian Ocean.

Against the backdrop of the confrontation with China, the Indian Navy has been placed on high alert in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Malacca. The Indian Navy has been given explicit instructions to prepare for military operations.

The controversial Kra Canal project, which has been in the works for several years, now appears to have widespread support among the Thai political elite, and a Thai parliamentary committee is expected to give its opinion on the project this month. The normally critical Bangkok Post has also publicly published an editorial supporting the construction of the canal.

The Thai Canal Association, which is closely tied to the politically powerful Thai military, says that Thailand could transfer some of its prosperity to itself, and that building industrial parks and logistics centers at both ends of the Kra Canal could make the canal one of Asia’s major transportation routes.

Although Thailand is nominally an ally of the United States, the country has been heavily tilted toward the Chinese government since 2014, when the United States refused to recognize a military takeover of the Thai government.

On the other hand, Singapore and Malaysia are strongly opposed to the construction of the canal. These two countries are two that rely heavily on the Straits of Malacca for their benefits, and the opening of the Kra Canal would be a major blow to the shipping industry in the Straits of Malacca.