Wall Street usually refers to the last five trading days of the year and the first two trading days of the New Year as the “Christmas market”, when the stock market is often very strong.
But this year, U.S. stocks performed very well in November, and the Dow’s November rally was the largest monthly gain in 30 years.
The “Christmas Market” may be weakened
Lately, there have been many warning signs that the record rally in the U.S. stock market has been overdone. There are five major signs that the so-called “Christmas market” in December may not be so easy to achieve.
01 The upper Bollinger Bands are broken
November’s strong performance saw the S&P 500 close above its upper monthly Bollinger Bands, a sell signal that indicates a possible consolidation period for stocks in the coming period. Looking back at the past three times after similar occurrences, the S&P 500 has declined for at least the next two months.
02 U.S. Stock Sentiment Indicators at Extremes
The put/call ratio for all individual stock options on the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) has shown that investor optimism is at an extreme level, as the five-day moving average of this indicator has reached its lowest level in 20 years.
As an inverse indicator, when the put/call ratio reaches a stage of minimal value, it means that investors have previously bought more call options, a large number of speculators are bullish on the market, and after this sentiment reaches a stage of extreme value, a reversal is about to occur, and thus a bearish signal.
03 The upside potential of U.S. stocks may be limited
The rally in U.S. stocks has been broad-based, with nearly all of the U.S. benchmark indexes in a technical uptrend. This week, 93% of S&P 500 constituents are trading above their 200-day moving averages, the highest level in seven years, signaling that the upside potential for U.S. stocks may be limited.
04 Tech stocks’ rally may be limited
Although technology stocks haven’t contributed much to the recent market movement, the Nasdaq 100 still managed to reach a new all-time high last Thursday. Year-to-date, the tech index is up 43% and is currently about two standard deviations above its 50-day moving average, suggesting that the index may have overshot the mark.
05 U.S. stocks are overvalued
Under the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratios used by Yale professor Robert Shiller, U.S. stock valuations have returned to their pre-Depression peak of 1929, although they are still well below their Internet-era highs.
U.S. Stocks May Not Be Flat in December
Despite fears of a weakened “Christmas market,” analysts at leading Wall Street investment bank Jefferies said, it doesn’t mean that U.S. stocks will be flat in December after a record November rally.
Based on our analysis over the past 30 years, when U.S. stocks outperform in a given year, they tend to do well in December, and even do better in the following 12 months, Jefferies analysts wrote in a report last Saturday.
Jefferies’ analysts also point out that when the S&P 500 outperforms the calendar year average of 7.6% from January to November, the average December return will be 2.74%, compared to an average December gain of 1.38% for U.S. stocks in other years.
It’s also worth noting that most studies of monthly stock trends have found that the true king of seasonal trends in U.S. stocks is the “January effect,” not December, especially for value stocks, which see generally good returns in early January. Compared to January, December’s performance of U.S. stocks is less pronounced.
As the research suggests, U.S. stocks may have had better than average returns in December, but much of that upside was likely concentrated in the first and last days of December. To some extent, the positive trend in late December may be due to holiday effects, such as Christmas and New Year’s Day.
Therefore, in terms of seasonal trends, now may be a reasonably positive time to invest, but “Christmas market” may not be the best way to describe it.
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