The Sino-Indian border conflict is now making some progress after much negotiation. In a statement released late Tuesday (September 22), senior Indian and Chinese military commanders agreed that there would be no more troop deployments in the recently rapidly militarized disputed border area in the Ladakh region. The statement did not, however, mention any breakthrough on the troop withdrawal issue, to which both sides had previously committed.
Chinese and Indian commanders and the Indian foreign ministry held 14 hours of talks in Chushul-Moldo on Monday, and a joint statement was issued by the two defense ministries on Tuesday. The two sides also agreed to strengthen ground communications to avoid misunderstandings and miscalculations along the disputed Line of Actual Control (LAC); to hold a seventh round of commander-level talks as soon as possible; and to “work together to maintain peace and tranquility in this border region,” the statement said.
The joint statement said the two commanders agreed to “seriously implement this important consensus reached by the leaders of both countries.
Less than two weeks ago, the Chinese and Indian foreign ministers met in Moscow on September 10. That meeting resulted in a five-point consensus, including the disengagement of the two militaries at a necessary distance, and continued dialogue to prevent disagreements from escalating into disputes, but no timetable was set for the disengagement of the two militaries.
While Tuesday’s joint statement eased tensions on the tense border conflict, no consensus was reached on the key issue of troop withdrawal.
The Indian Express reported Wednesday that at the meeting in Murdoch, India again put forward its central demand for a full Chinese withdrawal at the site of the conflict and a de-escalation of the situation throughout eastern Ladakh, but the Chinese demanded that Indian troops first be withdrawn from key high ground south of Lake Bangon and the area below Chushul.
India’s English-language media, the Hindustan Times, reported Wednesday that while India and China have agreed not to send additional troops to the Ladakh frontline, New Delhi is preparing for the withdrawal issue to take a long time to resolve, which will require multiple rounds of military and diplomatic negotiations to reach a firm political understanding on full troop withdrawal on both sides.
According to the Hindustan Times, Chinese observers believe that the situation in Ladakh will require a series of dialogues before China and India can reach an understanding on how to maintain calm along the Line of Actual Control (LoC) following the PLA “incursions” in May of this year. The report goes on to say that the PLA is now in a better position than the Indian military to rapidly deploy troops along the Line of Actual Control (LOTC), given the PLA’s increasing infrastructure upgrades in the areas it controls in Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh (China’s southern Tibetan region). In other words, the Indian military must remain vigilant along the Line of Actual Control until a greater political understanding is reached that the PLA will not act.
In June of this year, Chinese and Indian troops clashed in Ladakh, killing 20 Indian soldiers, but the Chinese have not released the number of Chinese casualties. After this incident, the two countries deployed tens of thousands of troops in the conflict zone, backed by artillery, tanks, and fighter jets.
Since then, the Sino-Indian border conflict has escalated, with India’s Economic Times reporting on September 2 that tensions are high in the Chusur region and that Chinese troops are within range of Indian soldiers. The Global Times, a Chinese media outlet, reported the news under the headline “Indian media clamor”.
On September 7, gunfire was also heard near Pangong Tso, a disputed western section of the border between the two countries, and Beijing and New Delhi accused each other of firing warning shots in the air.
Military experts have repeatedly warned that the slightest mistake or miscalculation on either side of the border could lead to catastrophic consequences.
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