Beijing time tonight at 20:30, known as the “scary data” of the United States June retail sales rate was released, recorded 0.6%, higher than the widely expected -0.4%, the previous value of -1.70%; core retail sales rate recorded 1.3%.
Spot gold rose slightly after the data was released, and the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note rose to 1.327%.
Retail sales data is an important guide in determining the current state and outlook of the U.S. economy, as retail sales directly reflect changes in consumer spending increases or decreases. Retail sales are primarily goods, while services such as health care, education, travel and hotel accommodations make up the remainder of consumer spending.
The data show that nine of the 13 retail categories saw sales increases in June, including strong growth in electronics and appliance stores, apparel stores and restaurants.
During the epidemic, demand shifted to goods such as electronics and motor vehicles as millions of people worked from home, took online classes and avoided public transportation. Currently, at least 160 million Americans are vaccinated. The reopening of the U.S. economy helped boost sales, especially for businesses that were hit hard by a lack of social activity during the epidemic.
Some analysts noted that U.S. retail sales unexpectedly increased in June, supported by government stimulus, increased savings and a new crown of vaccinations. Consumers are beginning to shift more of their spending to services, and coupled with retail demand remaining strong, economists expect household spending to expand strongly in the second quarter.
According to analyst Kevin Cummins.
“As the economy reopens, services spending has begun to pick up, likely pulling some spending away from goods spending toward some services spending not covered in the retail sales report.”
According to statistics, residential consumption accounts for 60% of U.S. GDP, meaning that 60% of U.S. economic growth is driven by residential consumption, and thus residential consumption is seen as an important pillar of the U.S. economy.
During the epidemic, households accumulated at least $2.5 trillion in excess savings, which is expected to drive spending this year and beyond. From July through December, some families will receive income under the government’s child tax credit program.
Michael Hewson of CMC Markets said.
“U.S. consumer spending has largely been up and down this year, with a large fiscal stimulus helping to drive a rebound in spending, but the recovery has been mixed as a significant number of U.S. consumers have chosen not to spend all the windfall they received in the stimulus package.”
Starting the week of June 12, states are reported to have exited the federal unemployment insurance program early. Some states have eliminated an additional $300 a week in unemployment benefits, some have eliminated benefits for the long-term unemployed, and some have offered “back-to-work” bonuses in lieu of benefits. This may be an important reason for the previous spending disincentives.
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