An Analysis of Three “Misjudgments” in U.S.-China Relations

Why has the U.S.-China relationship evolved to this point today? Three “misjudgments” have appeared in the media in the past few days. This article is a brief analysis.

One of them is the “U.S. misjudgment theory”.

On July 9, the Chinese Communist Party held a high-profile event at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse to commemorate the “50th anniversary of Kissinger’s secret visit to China”. In his speech, Wang Qishan blamed the U.S. side for the tense situation between the U.S. and China, saying, “In the name of competition, the U.S. side has made China an imaginary enemy, deliberately creating an atmosphere of suspicion and confrontation, and a duel between victory and defeat, which may lead to strategic misdirection and induce strategic miscalculation.”

On the same day, Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Le Yucheng said in an interview: the decline of the United States is not strength (the United States is still the world’s number one power and power, and it will be difficult to be surpassed for quite a long time) but hegemony, as well as ideology; China and the United States together is two benefits, fighting is both, through 50 years of contact and cooperation, for the world to do a lot of great things, the relationship between China and the United States messed up, screwed up, so that the world’s two major It is precisely the greatest political incorrectness for the two major powers in the world to have confrontation and conflict.

If the above remarks of Wang and Le are to be judged by Chinese idioms, they are eight words: to take away the reasoning by strong words and to make a backhanded attack. First, it is true that the greatest challenge to the United States is not in foreign countries but in the United States itself, which is also the mainstream view of the United States; however, the Chinese Communist Party has already posed the greatest external challenge to the United States, and through long-term infiltration, it has integrated into the United States to a certain extent, and the Chinese Communist (communist) factor has become the greatest obstacle to the reorganization of the United States, which is much more dangerous than the former Soviet Union (which was always isolated from the United States).

Second, with the increasing “globalization”, the field of cooperation between countries is certainly expanding, especially between the major powers and between China and the United States; however, cooperation should be premised on universal values and common values, otherwise cooperation will inevitably result in one party being harmed, the “50th anniversary of Kissinger’s secret visit to China The history of “Kissinger’s Secret Visit to China” has long eloquently proved that the United States has been raising tigers and leaving tigers behind. This is also the reason for the historic turnaround of U.S. policy toward China.

Third, the “Kissinger secret visit to China” in 1971 was the big defeat of the U.S. policy toward China. From the establishment of the Chinese Communist Party in 1949 to 1971, the “movement” did not stop, and the Lin Biao incident in 1971 had already declared the bankruptcy of Mao Zedong’s thought and the Cultural Revolution, and China and the Soviet Union were on the verge of collapse. On the one hand, the Nixon administration seriously misjudged the Chinese Communist regime, and on the other hand, the Chinese Communist Party, through its strategic spy Jin Wuli in the United States, learned the thinking and cards of the U.S. authorities, so it started with “ping-pong diplomacy” (the so-called “small ball pushing the big ball”) and invited the United States into the jar. To date, the U.S. side still does not investigate this deeply, and the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations (NCUSCR), a U.S. non-profit organization, still cooperates with the official Chinese Communist Party’s Chinese People’s Institute of Foreign Affairs (CPIFA) to organize a commemorative event to mark the 50th anniversary of Kissinger’s secret visit to China. The second type of “demonization of China” is the “demonization of China.

The second “demonization of China (CCP)”.

On July 1, the bimonthly website of The National Interest published an article by Kishore Mahbubani, a former senior Singaporean diplomat, titled “Will the U.S. Lose to China? in an article by Kishore Mahbubani, a former senior Singaporean diplomat. The article begins by arguing that the United States does not “know its enemy” and that misunderstandings about China run deep in the subconscious, denying that the Biden administration’s Director of National Intelligence, Avril Haynes, said, “China poses a challenge to our security, our prosperity, and our values on a range of issues. ” Second, the key to winning or losing is domestic governance, and the best way to reinvigorate the U.S. economy is to work with other economically strong countries around the world, especially China (CCP); and again China (CCP) is increasingly respected by other countries.

The author believes that the article’s selective use of factual evidence and views are specious. First, the article argues that the United States has “two major misconceptions” about the CCP: first, because China is ruled by the Communist Party, it must be committed to proving the superiority of communism over so-called “Western democracy” as the Soviet Union was; second, when China (CCP) replaces the United States as the world’s top economic power as the world’s top economic power, it will seek to popularize and export the Chinese (CCP) “model” just as the United States exported the American “model. These so-called “two major misunderstandings” are, in my opinion, precisely the historical summary of the U.S. dealings with the CCP, and are “correct”. (See the author’s article “The United States Misjudged the CCP for 80 Years”)

Second, the article says, “As long as China (CCP) takes care of its own people and does not disrupt the world order, the rest of the world can live in harmony with China (CCP).” This is correct. However, the CCP’s industrialized internal organ harvesting of Falun Gong practitioners and others, the massive human rights violations in Xinjiang, the reversal of the “50-year no change” pledge in Hong Kong, the destruction of “one country, two systems,” and the widespread suppression of democrats, and the use of state power to create lies –Can this be called “taking care of its own people”? The military threat to Taiwan has been repeatedly increased, and the Taiwan Strait has been called the most dangerous place in the world; the militarization of the South China Sea has challenged regional security and global strategic stability; the economic coercion of Australia and the “hostage diplomacy” of Canada have been readily adopted; the “One Belt, One Road” has exported corruption, the “digital surveillance system”, and the “debt trap”. The “Belt and Road” exports corruption, digital surveillance system, “debt trap” – can this be said to “not undermine the world order”? Can the rest of the world get along with the Chinese Communist Party on such a basis?

Ma Kai Shuo, former Permanent Representative of Singapore to the United Nations and former Dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore, unfortunately has a major misunderstanding of the Chinese Communist Party, confusing the term “Chinese Communist Party” with “China. China has a civilization with a history of several thousand years, but the CCP is the destroyer of traditional Chinese civilization. It is really confusing to deduce the international strategy of the CCP from the history and civilization of China.

In fact, Ma Kai Shuo should know the following three historical facts: first, after the founding of Singapore, Lee Kuan Yew was known as an “anti-communist”; second, certain policies of the Chinese Communist Party after the founding of the government led to the “Great Exclusion of China” in Southeast Asia; third, among the ten ASEAN countries, Singapore was the last country to establish diplomatic relations with the Chinese Communist Party. Third, among the ten ASEAN countries, Singapore was the last to establish diplomatic relations with the Chinese Communist Party (on October 3, 1990). Why is this so? Does Makai Shuo not know why? (Of course, the Singaporean authorities later became closer to the CCP, that is a different issue.)

The third, the “CCP misjudged the ‘U.S. decline’ theory.”

In early July, a report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a Washington think tank, titled “How Beijing’s Narrative of U.S. Decline Leads to Strategic Overconfidence,” noted that Beijing’s assessment that U.S. power and international influence are deteriorating since the 2008 financial crisis and that the Western world is in decline has led the CCP to This has led to the misperception that the U.S. is “rising in the east and falling in the west,” which has led to strategic misjudgments and a tendency toward confrontation and proactive “war-wolf diplomacy” as the best proof.

The authors of the report argue that the “decline of the United States” is becoming a single narrative for the CCP. They and some scholars also argue that in the realpolitik of the CCP, it is difficult to correct the radical course, which will lead to more serious strategic failures.

The author believes that these views are valid. In fact, after June 4, 1989, the West sanctioned the CCP, but it was soon broken by the CCP. As a result, the Chinese Communist Party despised the West from the bottom of its heart, believing that the West could say one thing but actually do another, and that it could use money to make it do what it wanted. The financial crisis in 2000 and the pandemic in 2020 were seen by the CCP as two historic opportunities to “overtake” the West. Since 2008, there has been a proliferation of Chinese language articles extolling the superiority of the socialist system and decrying the financial strength and democratic governance of the United States. In particular, over the past year, Communist think tanks have trumpeted that the American people are mired in epidemics, donkey fights, and social unrest to prove that “the U.S. democratic and political system has stopped working” and that “as America’s power wanes, so will the values it promotes. “The East is rising, the West is falling”.

It is true that the West’s appeasement policy has allowed the Chinese Communist Party to take advantage of the situation, with its economy growing exponentially and becoming the world’s second largest economy in 2010. However, the appeasement policy not only made the West fall into the ditch, but the CCP also fell in, thinking that such days could last for a long time until the CCP succeeded in turning the West back. What the Chinese Communist Party did not expect was that since Trump became president of the United States in 2017, the United States and the West have begun to wake up and are stepping out of the pit of the appeasement policy. This is a manifestation of this awakening.

Now, the international environment for the CCP has been reversed, but the CCP is still clinging to the dream of spring and autumn. In the face of the reality that resistance to the CCP has become an international trend, the CCP’s dream is bound to be shattered. However, not only does the CCP not turn back until it hits the South Wall, but also because of its rigid ideology and rotten system, it is difficult to turn back even after hitting the South Wall. Everything it does can only be considered as “the last run”.