No more balanced diplomacy? The True Meaning of Japan’s War for Taiwan

Recent frequent statements and actions by key members of the Japanese government concerned about Taiwan’s security have caused discontent and protests from the Chinese side. The change in Japan’s foreign policy, the extent of mobilization of the Self-Defense Forces to maintain security in the Taiwan Strait, and the differences in attitudes toward China within the Japanese government have raised concerns from all walks of life.

Japan has repeatedly raised the “importance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait” at important international meetings such as the Japan-US 2+2 talks in March, the US-Japan summit in April, and the G7 summit in June, and key government officials have frequently expressed concern about security in the Taiwan Strait, especially Japanese Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Taro Aso, who said on July 5 that if China infringes on Taiwan, it would be a violation of the Taiwan Strait. In particular, Japanese Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Taro Aso said on July 5 that if China infringes on Taiwan, Japan should consider this as a “existential crisis situation” and exercise its right to collective self-defense to defend Taiwan together with the United States, which was strongly protested by Chinese officials.

On July 5, the official Chinese media Global News accused the “core six” of Japan’s ruling party of taking the lead in provoking China and meddling in Taiwan’s affairs. Later, Hu Xijin, editor-in-chief of the Global Times, even posted an article on Weibo saying that he wanted to “destroy the Japanese Self-Defense Forces that are participating in the war”. So, is Japan, which has always been known for its “balanced diplomacy”, changing its policy towards China and Taiwan?

National Security Crisis Leads to Strategic Clarity

In an interview with the Voice of America, Kawashima Shin, a professor at the University of Tokyo Graduate School of Integrated Cultural Studies, said that it is not sensitive for Japan to discuss the issue of “peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait” at important international conferences.

He said, “The last time the Taiwan Strait issue was included in a joint summit statement was 52 years ago at the summit between President Nixon and Prime Minister Sato. The term ‘peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait’ was also used at the Japan-China summit, especially since it has not changed since 2005. Therefore, the Japanese government does not necessarily have a special interest in mentioning tensions in the Taiwan Strait, but its recent actions are being watched because of tensions in the South China Sea and East China Sea.”

China’s maritime police law, implemented on February 1, clearly jeopardizes the maritime lifelines in the South China Sea and East China Sea, making Japan feel threatened. Analysts say this is the reason why the Japanese government, especially increasingly senior officials, has recently made frequent references to “Taiwan Strait security.

According to Professor Chen Wenjia, an expert on Japan-China-Taiwan relations and advisor to Taiwan’s Institute of Japanese Studies, Japan’s policy has shifted from “strategic ambiguity” in the past to “strategic clarity” that firmly follows the U.S. and resists China.

He told the Voice of America, “Taro Aso is a former prime minister of Japan and has long served as deputy prime minister and finance minister to former Prime Minister Abe and current Prime Minister Kan, and is the head of the Aso faction, the second largest faction in the LDP, and a member of the Nine Ministers’ Council, Japan’s national security council. Although Aso is known in the Japanese community as the ‘Devil of Lost Words’, this time his speech was taken seriously by the major Japanese media, and it is believed that the Japanese government’s second-in-command should have revealed the Japanese government’s long-standing flexible U.S.-China relations ‘security by the U.S., economy by China ‘ ‘strategic ambiguity’, currently facing the critical issue of national security threatened by China, will certainly produce the ‘watermelon effect’ (defer to the strongest), and rightfully need the military, technology and The support of economic aid.” .

Self-Defense Forces fighting for Taiwan?

If China were to use force against Taiwan, Japan would decide what kind of measures to take depending on the type of invasion and the degree of impact on Japan’s security, Madoka Fukuda, a professor at the Faculty of Law at Japan’s Hosei University, told the Voice of America.

She said, “Japan’s security law previously set the premise that the deployment of the SDF in the application of the Japan-US security treaty was based on the ‘Peripheral State of Affairs Law,’ but has recently been amended to make the SDF take the necessary and minimal military action based on several different scenarios. Of course, if the U.S. military base in Okinawa is attacked, it is Japanese territory and the issue would fall under the individual right of self-defense, but outside of Japanese territory, if it causes a ‘state of existential crisis’, that is, a situation that threatens the survival of Japan, Japan can also activate the right of collective self-defense to cooperate with the actions of the U.S. military. But the scope of this ‘existential crisis situation’ has to be judged according to the situation at the time, and as Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Kato Katsushin said on July 6, it is very difficult to decide and take a position in advance.”

At the meeting on July 6, Taro Aso did not take a position when asked again about the “existential crisis”.

Chen Wenjia pointed out that Taiwan is at the core of the first island chain, and is also located in the forefront of the United States to counteract China, naturally becoming the most important strategic stronghold of the U.S.-Japan alliance to encircle China. Therefore, in the recent years when the confrontation between the United States and China has intensified after the rise of China, it is natural for the United States and Japan to shift from a vague ‘something around the periphery’ to a clear ‘direct reference to the Taiwan Strait’ on the issue of Taiwan Strait. He added that Taro Aso once said that the Taiwan Strait is a necessary place for oil and many Japanese imports and exports, and if there is a change in the Taiwan Strait, it would constitute a ‘state of crisis’ in the security-related law, and the Self Defense Forces could activate the right of collective self-defense to counterattack when the United States and other countries are attacked.

The official light in the protection of Taiwan has become a trend

The Globe and Mail pointed out on July 5 that the reason for the change in Japan’s attitude toward China is related to the gradual formation of a “hawkish team” at the core of Japan’s ruling party, naming the current Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi, Vice Defense Minister Yasuhide Nakayama, Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Taro Aso, the chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party’s tax investigation He said that they often take the lead in provoking China and interfering in Taiwan affairs in an attempt to confuse the public.

According to Kawashima, the number of politicians in the LDP’s foreign affairs and defense subcommittees who have shown a clear affinity for Taiwan is extremely large, and is not limited to these six individuals. It’s just that these six people speak more often in the media and have more influence in the international arena. Kawashima Shin says that a deeper look at the LDP will reveal that many politicians are no less anti-China or Taiwan-friendly than these six, especially since Japanese lawmakers who express their identification and closeness to Taiwan are in the majority, and the Diet as a whole has a harsh attitude toward China. As for the pro-China faction in politics, Kawashima says there are almost no so-called “pro-China” politicians left on the issue of value identification.

He said: “The so-called ‘pro-China’ politicians are only manifested in the close economic relationship between Japan and China, and are related to the politicians’ own political background. For example, the familiar LDP Chairman Toshihiro Niiji is backed by Japan’s tourism industry, which depends heavily on China, and his House of Representatives constituency is Wakayama Prefecture, which has close relations with China. Nowadays, politicians who are relatively friendly to China are almost always because the industry or constituency they support behind them is related to China, which is different in nature from the previous ‘Japan-China friendship faction’.”

Chen Wenjia agrees with this view. He even mentioned that the Japan Federation of Economic Organizations (JFEO) is the key pro-China faction that cannot be ignored. This is an industry group composed of Japanese companies, which was formed in May 2002 through the unification of the Keidanren and the Japan Business Federation.

Chen Wenjia said, “The Keidanren, together with the Japan Chamber of Commerce and Industry and the Keidanren, are known as the ‘three economic groups’ in Japan, and its president is also known as the ‘Prime Minister of the financial sector’ in Japan, and has a pivotal role in the Japanese industrial sector. The president of the association is known as the ‘Prime Minister of Japan’ and has a significant position in the Japanese industry. Since most of the members are large enterprises and have investments in China, and the LDP is now a political party supported by zaibatsu, especially when the financial assistance of the consortium is needed at the time of election, the effect of political and business co-existence will arise. In this way, the consortium, as the owner of the money, will exert some pressure on the Japanese Diet members and even the government on China issues. Therefore, the Japanese government is inevitably influenced by the Keidanren when formulating its China policy.”

Chen Wenjia stressed that the observation of Japan’s official behavior cannot be only from the perspective of the political circles, the influence of zaibatsu on Japanese politics is very important.

Dialogue in Japan-China confrontation

However, Fukuda Yuan pointed out that Japan’s policy toward China has basically not changed a lot.

Although it feels as if Japan’s policy toward China has shifted now because of special concerns about security issues such as the Taiwan Strait, on the whole, the policy toward China has not changed much, she said, “but it is just a clear statement when it should be adhered to. In addition to economic factors, on security issues, Japan still hopes to resolve differences with China through dialogue. Including the Taiwan Strait and equal security issues, Japan believes that the most important thing is to solve the problem peacefully. I think this coincides with the Biden administration’s ultimate goal as well.”

Fukuda round said that in recent years, the Japanese people in fact for China’s goodwill are very low, but in the country’s strategy, the government still holds to dialogue to achieve the goal, and the people will also support its strategy, so the current Xi Jinping visit to Japan as a state guest has not been canceled, but postponed.

Chen Wenjia defined the current Japan-China relationship as a “competition”. He said that Japan must work closely with the United States to contain China on geo-security issues, but must also engage closely with China on economic and trade development and the North Korean nuclear crisis. Therefore, it has formed a competing relationship of “containment with contact”.

As for China’s attitude toward Japan, he said, “On the other hand, China also sees that Japan is in need of China. Therefore, China is cooperating closely with Japan politically and economically, especially since the two countries recently hosted the Tokyo Olympics and the Winter Olympics in Beijing, respectively, and both sides are mutually supportive in the tone of hosting the Olympics. Even Japan hopes that the United States will not boycott the Winter Olympics in Beijing in addition to the Tokyo Olympics, so that Japan and China can hold the Olympics smoothly. On the other hand, China also needs to create a breakthrough through Japan under the U.S. ‘world around China’ siege, so it can gain geo-strategic space, thus forming a competitive relationship of ‘dialogue in confrontation’.”

Adhering to the “one-China policy” and maintaining a balance between Taiwan and China

On the one hand, Japanese Vice Defense Minister Nakayama Yasuhide questioned the “one-China policy” adopted by the U.S., Japan and other countries since the 1970s, and called Taiwan a “democratic country” in a June 28 think tank speech. “. On the other hand, Kurt Campbell, coordinator of Indo-Pacific affairs for the White House National Security Council, made it clear on July 6 that “we do not support Taiwan’s independence.

In response, Fukuda said that Japan’s position of continuing its “One China” policy will not change. But like the United States, Japan wants to develop its relationship with Taiwan within the framework of the “One China” policy.

She said, “Japan wants to support ‘peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait,’ which is also an important basis for maintaining its ‘One China’ policy. First, there is some overlap between the ‘One China’ principle that the Chinese government upholds and what the U.S. and Japan call their ‘One China’ policies, but there is also some room for different and separate formulations. In other words, countries continue to adjust and develop their own ‘One China’ policies on a case-by-case basis, to the extent that they do not undermine the overlap between the ‘One China’ principle that China adheres to, and that has been the case so far, and I think such adjustments will continue. “

In response to questions from Japanese Vice Defense Minister Yasuhide Nakayama about the appropriateness of the definition of the “One China” policy, Fukuda argued that the Japanese government will continue to uphold the position of the so-called “four political documents” signed with China since the normalization of diplomatic relations between Japan and China in 1972. However, as an individual, Yasuhide Nakayama’s position is not a good one. However, it is understandable that Yasuhide Nakayama, as a personal thinker, raised this question because the international environment in East Asia and the situation between China and Taiwan are very different in the 1970s and now. According to Fukuda, the mission of politics is to strike a balance between the passage of history and the changing situation, and to find a “one-China” policy that best suits the status quo.

Makoto Kawashima pointed out that the United States has been adhering to the one-China policy during the Trump era, and the Biden administration has not broken that line since. Japan has not broken its own one-China policy either. However, even under the one-China policy, there is still much room for enhanced cooperation in Japan-Taiwan relations, including working together on a common concept of a democratic state to counter China’s infiltration in Japan-Taiwan society and possible semi-official military and economic dialogue.

Japan and Taiwan can engage in dialogue on military security and economic security,” he said. In terms of security dialogue, if Taiwan can participate and cooperate with the Japan-U.S. alliance in the defense of the South China Sea and East China Sea, it will be beneficial to all three parties, Japan, the U.S. and Taiwan. On the economic front, Japan can help Taiwan join the CPTPP under the established regulations, or reach a Japan-Taiwan FTA, etc., to promote substantive relations between the two sides.”

Chen Wenjia stressed that Taiwan needs patience and rationality to assess the situation in order to gain a foundation for survival and development in the international game.