Cai Xia, a former professor at the Party School of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) and currently a scholar in the United States, published a bilingual article at the Hoover Institution on Wednesday, pointing out that the Chinese Communist Party has the ambition of a dragon, but it is a paper tiger in essence, and there are many factors that could lead to unexpected situations or even the sudden collapse of the Communist regime.
In a lengthy article, Cai Xia analyzes that the engagement policy of the past half century has had multiple effects: on the one hand, this engagement has helped the Chinese people escape poverty and go global, and on the other hand, it has led to the rapid rise of the CCP’s new totalitarian rule.
In the article, Cai Xia points out that this U.S. engagement policy is rather “naive. According to her analysis, the CCP’s basic mentality of using the United States and being hostile to it has never changed since the resumption of relations between China and the United States. From Deng Xiaoping’s “hiding the light” to Xi Jinping’s “bottom-line thinking” and his more aggressive and arrogant posture, the CCP has always hidden its true goals and intentions in order to gain maximum benefit from the United States.
Cai Xia noted that many people do not realize that the CCP has transformed into a “neo-totalitarian” rather than an authoritarian regime. Cai Xia redefines the CCP as a highly sophisticated new totalitarian with “fear + ideology + digital technology control system. This new totalitarianism has “an adversary that does not follow common sense, does not follow rules, does not follow honesty, and is difficult to have normal expectations.”
Cai Xia’s analysis shows that China and the U.S. are inevitably heading toward confrontation and confrontation, and the CCP has always regarded the U.S. as its enemy because, on the one hand, the CCP fears that its regime will be overthrown, and it is unquestionably politically correct to oppose the U.S. both inside and outside the CCP, and, on the other hand, the CCP has always regarded “eliminating imperialism and liberating all mankind” and “planting the On the other hand, the CCP has always taken “eliminating imperialism and liberating all mankind” and “planting the red flag all over the world” as its political goals.
Xi Jinping has become more aggressive and has made no secret of his desire to replace the United States because he has misjudged the international situation and “risen in the east and fallen in the west. But Cai Xia, who has worked in the CCP system for more than 30 years, believes that China is superficially strong but full of contradictions and self-doubt, characteristics that have become more pronounced under Xi’s leadership. Cai Xia notes that the CCP has the ambition of a dragon but is a paper tiger, oppressive internally while expanding externally. The CCP’s new totalitarian regime has its vulnerabilities, including an unsustainable economic model and high debt, a dual-track system of conflicting market and state distribution, pompous ideological propaganda, a widening wealth gap, and fierce infighting and corruption among the top rulers for succession.
Caixia analyzes that just as the Soviet Union and Eastern European communist regimes collapsed suddenly, the CCP faces such risks. She noted, “A sudden and instantaneous collapse triggered by random events would almost inevitably bring about disorder and chaos within China, which would have serious consequences for the world outside of China, and therefore the United States would need to have a clear understanding and adequate response plans.”
The ‘Wall Street Journal’ also reported on Cai Xia’s article on Wednesday, which wrote that Beijing is using the party’s centennial as an opportunity to celebrate Xi Jinping’s efforts to make China a proud nation with a strong economy and military power. Some Western scholars, like Cai Xia, are timing their comments to point out that Xi’s authoritarian leadership style is leading China in a dangerous direction.