U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Tuesday (Oct. 6) is scheduled to attend the Quadripartite Talks (QUAD) in Tokyo, Japan, a meeting of four foreign ministers from the United States, Japan, Australia and India to discuss pressing security issues in the Indo-Pacific region. Some observers have pointed out that the most important significance of Pompeo’s trip is to highlight China’s growing “self-isolation” and “friendless” dilemma.
However, they also say that while the “Four-Party Talks” are taking shape, they still face considerable challenges in further transforming them into a mechanism for “anti-China” action because of the different interests of the participating countries.
Most Chinese view the “Four-Party Talks” as a new Cold War mechanism initiated by the United States against China, and they badmouth it.
China has no friends?
Alexander Neill, a former senior fellow at the Shangri-La Dialogue Forum and now director of a strategic consulting firm in Singapore, told VOA in an interview that the “Four-Party Talks” are “a new Cold War mechanism initiated by the United States against China,” and that China has no friends. He expects that Pompeo’s trip to Tokyo, though only for one day, may be an alliance to highlight China’s growing “ego” and “self” as member states develop a shared vision of democracy in response to China’s threat of force and rising tensions in the South China Sea. Isolated” behavior.
In terms of the integration of the quadripartite talks, I think Pompeo will try to highlight the dilemma of China’s lack of allies (in the Asia-Pacific region) other than North Korea,” Neal said.
Neal said that while Russia and Pakistan are good friends with China, they are not yet security allies, so he expects that Pompeo’s trip will not only continue his usual critical tone of the Chinese Communist Party, but will also continue to reinforce to the international community that China is a member of the UN Security Council and a world power, but that China is “isolated and friendless.
The “Four-Party Talks” were first initiated by the four major democracies in 2007, but after a decade-long period of dormancy, they were speculated again in late 2017, but in the following three years, several meetings were held only with the participation of senior officials at the level of directors of each country, until 2019, following the U.S. Department of Defense’s “Indo-Pacific Strategy Report” in June, only in September for the first time the Four-Party Talks were upgraded to the level of foreign ministers, followed by the “Free and Open Indo-Pacific: Promoting a Shared Vision” report in November to further elaborate its strategic layout for returning to Asia.
Pompeo Playing the India Card?
This year, with the outbreak of the border conflict between China and India, India, which has always refused to take a position on the matter, has begun to move closer to the United States, in contrast to its previous scrupulous attitude toward China. Therefore, Neal said, at the second quadripartite foreign ministers’ meeting on Tuesday, Pompeo will not start to play the India card, and how will play the India card, it is worth watching.
As for China’s reaction to the quadrilateral talks, Neal said, it’s probably still not out of the strong backlash and positioning it as a Cold War mentality of the U.S. encircling and suppressing China, except that the previous deadly clashes between China and India will make it hard to justify such a narrative, because the focus of the quadrilateral members is no longer just on U.S. national interests, but on the real threat of force from China in the region. In particular, China’s increasingly aggressive diplomacy and military intimidation over the past year has almost annoyed most of its neighbors, with the exception of the Soviet Union.
However, Neil says, “The alliance in the four-party talks is not exactly a declaration of war against China, but rather a test of China’s bottom line or red line. I think China’s biggest red line is in Taiwan, because the issue is written into the Communist Party’s constitution and the anti-secession law passed by the National People’s Congress.”
As for whether the four-party talks will be branded as an Asian version of NATO? The possibility is low, Neal said, especially since India has always been an oscillator and not a fan of political alliances, plus, the formation of a NATO-type organization in Asia, its size and military expenditures, and how the countries will share in the future, are all uncertain.
The Asian version of NATO is difficult to produce
Zhu Feng, director of the South China Sea Collaborative Innovation Research Center at Nanjing University, also believes that the four-party talks will not become an Asian version of NATO, “unless China takes the initiative to militarily occupy Taiwan.
Unlike China’s hawkish thinking, Zhu said in an interview with the Voice of America that Taiwan is not worthy of China’s use of force, both because the Chinese don’t fight the Chinese and because Taiwan’s pro-Americanism didn’t just start today. But he said that China’s recent increase in military pressure on Taiwan is mainly due to the rise of Taiwan independence forces, coupled with the fact that the Tsai Ing-wen government is catering too much to the new Cold War strategy of the United States, China must express strong discontent and containment.
Since next year will mark the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party, Neil also believes that Chinese President Xi Jinping should not be prone to creating regional conflicts or waging war.
In addition, China has always believed that the United States is using the “Indo-Pacific strategy” to exaggerate the threat posed by China and advocate the creation of an exclusive regional bloc against China in order to contain China’s development on all fronts.
Pompeo’s visit is one of the recent steps in the U.S. policy toward China, according to Su Xiaohui, deputy director of the Institute of American Studies at the China Institute of International Studies, who was quoted by online media on Monday (Oct. 5) as saying that the “Four-Party Talks” will further complement the U.S. “Indo-Pacific Strategy”. “, negatively impacting China’s regional economic cooperation, maritime rights and interests, and many other aspects. “Although the U.S. does not appear to be highlighting the China factor, containing China is one of the important objectives of the U.S. trip.
He said that Pompeo’s China policy has been tantamount to declaring a new Cold War with China, so his arguments and diplomatic agenda “are all aimed at bringing together more allies and security partners to confront China and expand the anti-China bloc”. A united front, including, this Japan trip, is also to strengthen policy coordination with allies to combat and alienate China.”
However, Zhu Feng does not believe that Asian countries would be happy to see a new Cold War between the U.S. and China, as he believes that it would not be conducive to the security, stability and prosperity of the Asia-Pacific region, and that Asian countries have diverse interests and do not want to be forced to take sides between the U.S. and China, although, countries must also be prepared for the possibility of a worsening of U.S.-China relations.
Divergent Interests of Asia Pacific Countries
On the whole, Asian countries are unlikely to dance to Pompeo’s new Cold War policy with China, but on the other hand, they will more or less consider where their own interests lie in furthering the U.S.-China relationship toward conflict,” Zhu told VOA.
Zhu Feng said that Pompeo is trying to turn the four-party talks into a mechanism for the four sides to act together against China, but he believes that in the short term, this goal may be difficult to achieve, because the new Cold War means that China and the United States are economically decoupled, politically antagonistic, and strategically moving toward a policy of rejection or exclusion, which is contrary to the tone of Asian countries, which still emphasizes dialogue and cooperation.
Professor Eugene Gholz of the University of Notre Dame also told VOA that the four-party talks are still brewing, and that there are still big challenges ahead to further cooperate to “fight China.
He said: “There are indications that the member states of the Quartet are becoming increasingly disenchanted with China, and this may lead to some degree of cooperation. But how to translate that cooperation into meaningful or actionable action, I think, is still very much in question.” “
Neil, a strategic advisor in Singapore, agrees that China is rich and powerful in Asia, and that most of the countries in the East Asia Pacific, which are focused on the economic dividends of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, are reluctant to confront China, especially the two major military powers, the United States and China, in the South China Sea, which is their back door, and they are especially reluctant to see China and India continue to confront each other in the South China Sea, which is a source of tension.
However, Neal said, the Indo-Pacific countries outside of China have the biggest agreement, and that is, most of them have no choice but to have the United States as their long-term guarantor of security, as China is still less capable than the United States in terms of public safety interests, humanitarian relief, disaster relief, and crime fighting in the region.
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