First U.S. jobless claims under 400,000 for two weeks since epidemic

Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Thursday, June 10, showed that the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits in the United States fell to 376,000 in the week ended June 5, slightly higher than market expectations of 370,000, but lower than the previous value of 385,000 in the previous week.

This is the sixth consecutive week that initial jobless claims, a major market concern during the epidemic, have fallen for two consecutive weeks below the 400,000 mark and continue to set new lows since March 14, 2020, the early stages of the outbreak of the new U.S. crown.

However, the figure is still twice the pre-epidemic level, with the last low seen on March 14, 2020, when 256,000 were added. The number of first-time applicants soared to nearly 3 million the week after that, peaking at over 6.1 million applicants in early April last year as the economy continued to shut down.

Meanwhile, as of two weeks ago (week of May 29), the number of continuing claims for unemployment benefits fell significantly by 258,000, the largest drop since mid-March, to a total of less than 3.5 million, and the lowest since the epidemic, which coincided with the peak of the epidemic last year, when the total number of continuing claims reached 18.9 million.

The number of people receiving some form of government benefits fell by 95,100 last week to a total of 15.35 million, about half the number for the same period in 2020. The analysis notes that the number of people filing for unemployment benefits in the U.S. is expected to continue to fall as expanded anti-epidemic emergency relief expires in September and a number of state governments make early cuts to this unconventional benefit, in line with the trend of an improving U.S. labor market and economic recovery.

Zerohedge, a financial blog known for its venom, has repeatedly pointed out that despite the falling numbers, more than 15 million Americans are still receiving some form of government benefits, with more than 11 million of them preferring to take advantage of the special-period unemployment benefits rather than go out to work, clearly contradicting yesterday’s release of JOLTS job openings, which rose above 9 million in April and reached a new record high. This is obviously a serious departure from yesterday’s release of JOLTS job openings, which surpassed 9 million in April and hit a record high.

Wall Street News has mentioned that at the end of April, there were 9.3 million vacancies across the United States, a record high, especially in the manufacturing and government sectors and other demanding positions are the most short of labor, the same period last year only 4.63 million vacancies.

On the one hand, companies can not hire people may aggravate the imbalance between the supply chain and end demand phenomenon. The Fed’s Brown Book also acknowledges that strong labor demand but suppressed supply will continue, even forcing some companies to shorten working hours and curb output.

At the same time, while wages and prices have not yet shown clear signs of labor supply and demand imbalances, there have been some hints of them in the production and retail sectors. And higher inflation expectations may depress the performance of risk assets, and do not rule out forcing the Fed to tighten policy.