Azerbaijan and Armenia are once again at war with each other. China maintains close relations with both countries, while expanding its influence in the South Caucasus. China’s approach to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, as well as its delicate relationship with Russia on the ground, is of interest.
Arms Sales, Investment, and Money China Maintains Close Relations with Both Sides of the Conflict
In the wake of the resumption of a large-scale armed conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia, China’s interests on the ground and how it will behave have raised concerns.
Years ago, some Azerbaijani politicians and think tanks noted that China had supplied weapons to Armenia. In recent years, Azerbaijan has similarly procured a missile-launching Polonetz heavy rocket system developed jointly by China and Belarus.
Like Russia, China has traded arms with both sides in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. However, China has kept a very low profile in this area. At the same time, China’s interaction and other cooperation with Azerbaijan and Armenia, respectively, is growing.
There are similarities between the political system of the strongman ruling Azerbaijan and that of China and Russia. Aliyev has been in power in Azerbaijan for many years after taking over from his father, a former Soviet communist leader. Aliyev also visits China regularly, and he participated in the Belt and Road Summit in Beijing last April. Similar to its treatment of Russia, China has been strengthening ties with Azerbaijan’s ruling party.
China is interested in Azerbaijan’s oil and gas resources and even wants to participate in some local energy projects. China is also trying to invest in the Caspian Sea port in the Baku region of the capital city of Kavanaugh. Although Huawei is facing increasing resistance in the West and other parts of the world, the Chinese telecom giant is increasingly active in Azerbaijan, where it is doing more and more business.
A number of Armenian leaders have visited China. Armenia’s current Prime Minister Pashinian, who came to power two years ago amid popular demonstrations and is considered pro-Western, visited China last May to participate in the Asian Civilization Dialogue conference in Beijing. China has also provided preferential loans and other assistance to Armenia over the years. China is interested in helping Armenia build a north-south railroad system in its territory and a railroad link between Iran and Armenia.
Armenia’s ties with China are more ancient than those of Azerbaijan. Armenian merchants were treated well by the Chinese court hundreds of years ago. Armenia is also the third European country, after Serbia and Belarus, to decide to grant visa-free treatment to ordinary Chinese citizens.
China’s interest in South Caucasus grows with the size of its embassy
Another interesting aspect of China’s relations with Armenia is that, although Armenia is a small and landlocked country, China has a very large embassy in Yerevan, the capital of Armenia. According to some Armenian journalists, the size of the Chinese embassy and the number of diplomats on the ground do not seem to be commensurate with Armenia’s international standing, and reflect the importance China attaches to Armenia and the South Caucasus. In addition, Armenia’s proximity to Iran, Turkey, and Russia, whose secret police and security agencies closely monitor Chinese activities there, makes Armenia a safe haven for Chinese activities in the South Caucasus.
In addition to Armenia and Azerbaijan, China is also increasing its interaction with Georgia, another South Caucasus country. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited Tbilisi last May, the first visit to Georgia by a Chinese foreign minister in many years.
Geography is Important: The Naka Conflict Helps Russia Limit Chinese Influence
The geographic proximity of the South Caucasus to Europe, the Middle East, Russia, and Central Asia makes it an important player in China’s push for its Belt and Road project. The ability of Chinese goods and commodities to cross the Caspian Sea through Central Asia to reach Europe and the Middle East via the South Caucasus is also seen as an important option for China’s overland Belt and Road project to reduce its dependence on Russia, and perhaps even replace it.
But the escalating conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia and the ongoing fighting there have undoubtedly seriously hampered China’s Belt and Road push there. Many political analysts have noted that China’s current stance on the Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict is very cautious, and it is trying to avoid the perception that it is taking sides in the conflict.
Russia also maintains close relations with both sides of the conflict. But Russia does not want to see China expanding its influence in its own backyard, the former Soviet Union, including the South Caucasus. The resurgence of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict undoubtedly provides an opportunity for Russia to prevent China from expanding its influence in the South Caucasus.
According to an Azerbaijani think tank, Russia does not want Azerbaijan to make full peace with Armenia, but it does not want the conflict to expand and get out of control, and it wants the confrontation and tensions between the two sides to continue. On the other hand, Russia has played a dominant role in the Nagorno-Karabakh issue since the collapse of the Soviet Union, but this position is now being challenged by its powerful neighbor Turkey.
According to pro-official Russian military analyst Kolotchenko, Russia should remain neutral in the Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict, take no sides, and promote a rapprochement between the two sides, while excluding Turkish influence on Nagorno-Karabakh but avoiding direct conflict with Turkey.
Russia is trying to defend its dominant position, and the conflict is extremely difficult to resolve.
According to Russian political scientist Salin, Nagorno-Karabakh is a former Soviet hotspot, along with Transnistria, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia. Similar to Kosovo, there is also less recognition of the independent status of these regions.
He believes that Russia and China can still coordinate their positions on the Kosovo issue. But the Nagorno-Karabakh issue is completely different from other conflicts.
At the beginning of the 1990s, Azerbaijan suffered a crushing defeat in the conflict with Armenia. In recent years, however, Azerbaijan’s power has grown, especially in the last few years due to high energy prices on the international market, the revenues of the Azerbaijani treasury have skyrocketed, and the voices of Azerbaijani society have become louder and louder in favor of revenge.
According to Salim, the significant increase in military power has led to Azerbaijan’s growing self-confidence.
If I remember correctly, Azerbaijan’s military spending can even exceed Armenia’s state budget, so there is a growing feeling in Azerbaijan that the time has come to solve the Nagorno-Karabakh problem.”
Both Azerbaijan and Armenia see Nagorno-Karabakh as their principled issue and core interest, and the conflict is extremely difficult to resolve, Salin said.
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