As the Chinese Communist Party intensifies preparations for a possible military invasion of Taiwan, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has accelerated the militarization of its southeastern coastal region, upgraded its missile bases, and begun deploying its most advanced ballistic missiles.
A source in Beijing, who asked not to be named, said the PLA has begun deploying new Dongfeng-17 hypersonic ballistic missiles in the southeastern coastal region, gradually replacing the decades-old Dongfeng-11 and Dongfeng-15 missiles, the English-language South China Morning Post reported Sunday (Oct. 18).
The Dongfeng-17, which is more accurate and has a longer range of up to 2,500 kilometers, was first unveiled on October 1 of last year at a military parade marking the 70th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party.
The report also quotes military commentator Pingkov, founder of the Hanho Defense Review, as saying that satellite imagery shows that PLA Marine and rocket bases in Fujian and Guangdong have been expanding in recent years, with missile bases in the eastern and southern theaters even doubling in size, while a missile base in Puning, Guangdong province, has been completed. Upgraded and deployed a new ballistic missile. However, Pinkov would not confirm the model number due to the sensitivity of the issue.
Pingkov said that the missile bases in Puning are responsible for attacking southern Taiwan, but that neither the Dongfeng-11 nor Dongfeng-15 missiles have sufficient range to cross the Central Mountains and hit the bases in Taitung and Hualien in eastern Taiwan.
He said that all of this indicates that the PLA is strengthening its war preparations against Taiwan.
Taiwan’s Central News Agency (Taiwan’s Central News Agency), relaying the SCMP report, said that Su Zi Yun, director of the Institute for National Defense Strategy and Industry, Taiwan’s National Defense Security Research Institute, analyzed that the Dongfeng-17 does have the ability to attack Taiwan, but its range is longer, and if it were to attack Taiwan alone, “the extra range would be wasted.
According to Su Ziyun, based on the range and flight characteristics of the Dongfeng-17, the PLA should deploy it to attack U.S. military bases and aircraft carrier battle groups, and use it as a tactic to “surround and fight” the U.S. military reinforcements in Taiwan.
Su Ziyun said that the Dongfeng 17 was only commissioned last year, and the number is still limited, estimated to be no more than 100, and that the PLA will not rule out increasing the number of deployments year by year in the future.
The last time the PLA deployed missiles on a large scale off the coast of Fujian and Zhejiang province was during the administration of Taiwan’s former Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) President Chen Shui-bian from 2000 to 2008. Beijing views Taiwan, which has been fully autonomous since the 1949 communist civil war, as a province to be reunified and has vowed to invade by force.
After the DPP’s Tsai Ing-wen became president in 2016, Taiwan’s relations with Beijing deteriorated sharply as she did not recognize the so-called “1992 Consensus” of the previous Ma Ying-jeou administration’s “one China, two separate formulations,” and Beijing continued to suppress Taiwan’s international space, poaching several of Taiwan’s diplomatic allies and punishing Taiwan for trade and travel.
Taiwan’s relations with the United States have been heating up since Tsai Ing-wen’s re-election as president in 2020, at the same time that bilateral relations between the United States and China have been deteriorating at an accelerating pace due to factors such as trade and the neo-coronavirus epidemic.
U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar’s visit to Taiwan on August 10 formalized the U.S.-Taiwan public health partnership of the past 20 years. Azar was the highest-ranking Cabinet official to visit Taiwan in the 41 years since diplomatic relations between the U.S. and Taiwan were severed, sparking strong resentment and protest from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
Subsequently, the Chinese Communist Party significantly increased its military pressure and intimidation against Taiwan, sending military aircraft to fly over the centerline of the Taiwan Strait and holding successive large-scale combat exercises in the Taiwan Strait and the waters north and south of the Strait.
U.S. Undersecretary of State Keith Krach, the highest-ranking official in the State Department, visited Taiwan on September 17, causing the Chinese Communist Party to be dissatisfied, sending several military aircraft across the centerline of the Taiwan Strait and announcing Taiwan naval exercises in the Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea, East China Sea, and South China Sea. Within 48 hours of Klatsch’s arrival in Taiwan, the PLA launched 37 sorties to disrupt Taiwan, and several sorties crossed the “Taiwan Strait Centerline,” reaching a peak in the number of disruptions. Since the beginning of this year, the number of PLA sorties in the Taiwan Strait has reached 221.
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has accused China of “military intimidation” for its military exercises in the Taiwan Strait. U.S. Presidential Adviser for National Security Affairs Robert O’Brien warned China on October 7 against attempts to seize Taiwan by force, and called on Taiwan to increase its defense budget in response to China’s growing military expansion.
O’Brien also said on Oct. 16 that China’s current limited amphibious warfare capabilities would not make it easy to attack Taiwan, and that it might be possible to do so in the next 10 to 15 years. He added that while the United States does not comment publicly on whether it would assist in the defense of Taiwan, the United States has the tools to respond, which would increase the risk of Chinese action. The United States does not want to be China’s “enemy,” he said, but for now, the United States must stand up to some of China’s practices.
O’Brien also said that if China were to take military action against Taiwan, China would be isolated from the international community, especially the Indo-Pacific region, which would find China’s actions repugnant, and the United States could easily build alliances against China. He believed that Chinese strategists would not do that.
In addition, the Chinese Maritime Administration announced that the PLA will conduct live-fire training in the western part of Hainan Island for two consecutive days starting from the 18th, during which it will be prohibited from entering the relevant waters. According to the announced coordinates, the exercise will take place in the Gulf of Beibu.
The U.S. Navy’s Pacific Fleet previously announced that the Nimitz-class nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan strike group was deployed to the South China Sea for the third time this year. According to the press release, the goal of this deployment is to demonstrate forward deployed naval capabilities that are committed to maintaining security agreements between the United States and its regional allies and partners, and to provide a rapid response to any contingency in the region.
The USS Reagan carrier strike group is conducting maritime security exercises, including fighter and helicopter flight drills, maritime attack drills, and coordinated tactical training for surface and air forces, the release added.
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