U.S. Marine Corps Commandant David Berger said during an appearance May 18 that he has been studying China for the past decade and that while war between the United States and China is not inevitable, the rivalry between the two countries will continue on a daily basis. According to Berger, forward deployment of U.S. Marines may slow the Chinese Communist Party’s willingness to expand its borders and bully its immediate neighbors.
I’m not like those who think war with China is a foregone conclusion,” Berger said that day at an online forum hosted by the Brookings Institution. I’m not in that camp. I think there are steps that both sides can take that don’t make war an inevitability. Its not so. I don’t think its inevitable.” Berger said, “Nonetheless, the Chinese clearly have a strategy. They have a plan. They are providing resources for that plan. They have a coherent government, and that gives them an advantage. It also has disadvantages. I believe they are marching to achieve their goals. It’s very clear that they are open about those goals.”
In terms of the U.S.-China relationship, Berger said, “I do think it’s going to be an active day-to-day rivalry for the foreseeable future. They are continuing to expand.” He said, “We’re trying to sort out how we should adapt (to this situation) but not allow either country to rewrite a very good set of rules that have served everybody well for 70 years …… And that’s certainly a conundrum.” The U.S. Naval Research Institute (USNI) reports that Marine Corps officials have emphasized the service’s force design efforts, which include making heavier equipment lighter by reducing it so that Marines can move easily between Pacific islands. This is to keep pace with the U.S. defense strategy’s response to potential conflicts with countries such as China and Russia.
In addition, Berger described Taiwan as an “asymmetric problem” and noted that Taiwan must defend itself, so the U.S. should find ways to assist Taiwan in doing so. You can’t talk about global competition, or strategic competition; and not talk about Taiwan and its place in it,” he said. But on this issue, I think it would be too simplistic to look at Taiwan, China and the United States through a symmetrical lens.” He added, “In terms of security, it’s an asymmetrical issue, and it’s not just regional. So, first of all, we have to open our minds to the idea that it’s not just a question of how much firepower they have with us and Taiwan, right. It’s not that simple.”
Berger said if and when the Chinese Communist Party chooses to seize control of Taiwan, then the U.S. should be prepared for the possibility of the conflict expanding beyond all areas and the Indo-Pacific region. “The old-fashioned approach of how you contain, how you prevent the seizure of Taiwan will probably not (apply) in the future, because there are capabilities in other areas that were not there before,” he said. He spoke of “other things frankly to be determined, like space, how far any country will go because the relevant rules haven’t been written yet, the international rules (that) deal with how things will work in the space domain.”
Berger said, “I think we have to and are adjusting the way we look at any potential conflict in Taiwan. And I agree with you 100 percent that it has to go into all areas, well beyond the military, well beyond the U.S. versus (the Chinese Communist Navy). It has to be a much broader conversation than that.” He sees two possible scenarios for the CCP’s actions in the region. Berger explained, “One is what we’re seeing in areas like the South China Sea and other areas, moving forward inch by inch, yard by yard, and I’m just using a martial arts analogy, if you back off, he moves forward closer.” Berger said, “It worked in their favor because there was no fighting in this situation. They just move, move, move forward a little bit at a time.”
Berger continued, “But the other part is a more dynamic, more dynamic situation like Taiwan, which is clearly in their interest, and they have so publicly stated that they want to put Taiwan under the umbrella.” He added, “That would run counter to our U.S. policy to date.” He said, “I think you should look at them through a different lens: there’s the daily, weekly competition, but also the range of scenarios where (the Chinese Communist Party) might move toward Taiwan and what that might look like.” Beijing’s ambitions could also come in the form of providing humanitarian aid ahead of the United States in the event of a natural disaster, he said.
Berger said, “Typically, the U.S. has been around and very quick to provide help. Well, there’s a reason that the Chinese Communist People’s Liberation Army; the People’s Republic of China is downsizing their military and increasing the size of their Navy and Marine Corps.” According to Berger, “We’re going to have to consider if they get medical supplies first and have the ability to help (aid) ashore without having to take the whole force ashore. How do we factor all of that in? Because relationships with allies and partners are also built on how we respond to a distress call in a natural disaster.” He said, “What if we’re not the first? That’s never been the case before.”
Berger noted that while U.S. military training with allies and partners is a key element in building and sustaining those relationships, humanitarian assistance is also critical. He said, “Going back to how you use the force to your advantage, how you develop relationships with allies and partners; some of that is obviously in terms of training and interoperability and motivation.” He added, “But some of it frankly is using their tools plus your tools in a way that can help humans when they need it. That’s not the number one issue that most people talk about in the military, but my experience is that when a country needs help and they need it now, then every day, every hour counts.”
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