The year 2022 is the year of the change of the Chinese Communist Party, and the personnel arrangement of the new Politburo has triggered many speculations. Some Hong Kong media said that Xi Jinping has broken many personnel rules since he came to power, so the 20th Congress personnel changes may have stone shattering changes.
The 20th Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held next fall, when the members of the CPC Central Committee, Politburo members and Politburo Standing Committee will change. The Chinese government is now preparing for the 20th Congress, and Xi Jinping is preparing for a third term.
The Hong Kong newspaper Ming Pao published a commentary on the 19th, saying that there may be big changes in the personnel of the 20th National Congress. The first possible change is that the “seven up eight down” may become “seven down eight up”, which mainly refers to the age of the line of hard indicators may no longer exist.
The situation of “older up, younger down” has a precedent in the 19th Congress, such as the retirement of Vice Chairman Li Yuanchao, who was born in November 1950, and the promotion of Li Zhanshu, who is slightly older than him, to the Politburo Standing Committee; and the entry of Zhang Yuman, a member of the Military Commission, who is over 67 years old, while Liu Qibao and Zhang Chunxian, who were 64 years old at the time, are both out. to the Chinese Communist Party’s CPPCC NPC retirement.
Even in the 1980s, when the CCP emphasized the youthfulness of its cadres, 81-year-old Yang Shangkun succeeded 79-year-old Li Xiannian as the CCP president at the seventh session of the NPC, the commentary said. And the only criterion for these changes was the trust of the top leaders.
According to the commentary, some senior officials who seem bound to retire at the 20th CPC Congress, such as CPC Vice Premier Han Zheng, Liu He, and Chen Xi, head of the Central Organization Department, may not retire or may not retire altogether, but may continue their political lives in some form or even go to the next level.
The same 67-year-old Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, CPPCC Chairman Wang Yang and Wang Huning, the Standing Committee member in charge of party affairs, may not all stay in their posts next year. In the past 30 years, no member of the Politburo has served more than three consecutive terms, except for the top leader, Li Tieying, who served three consecutive terms at the age of 66 at the 16th National Congress in 2002, and became vice chairman of the NPC.
The commentary said that the second possible change in the 20th National Congress is mainly reflected in individual second-tier NPC and CPPCC officials, who may move up to the next level. Recently, rumors of He Lifeng, vice chairman of the CPPCC and head of the National Development and Reform Commission, entering the next term to replace Liu He have been persistent and may come true.
As for the third possible change in the 20th Congress, the commentary says that it is the personnel adjustment before the CPC Party Congress, the so-called mid-session adjustment, but the personnel card is only in and out.
In addition to the CPC Central Military Commission, the last mid-session adjustment of the Politburo or the Secretariat was the Fourth Plenary Session of the 14th Central Committee in 1994. Wu Bangguo, then a member of the Politburo, and Jiang Chunyun, then secretary of the Shandong Provincial Party Committee, were both transferred to Beijing as secretaries of the Secretariat, and both became vice premiers at the National People’s Congress the following year, while Shanghai Mayor Huang Ju was appointed to the Politburo as his successor as secretary of the Shanghai Municipal Party Committee. In the past 20 years, there has not been a similar mid-term adjustment at the top of the Communist Party.
According to the commentary, after the NPC amended its organic law this year, the NPC Standing Committee has expanded its power to appoint and dismiss personnel, and there is speculation that there may be important personnel adjustments at the NPC Standing Committee meeting before the 20th National People’s Congress, or at the Sixth Plenary Session this fall, or as in the case of Zhu Rongji, who was first transferred to a government post (from Shanghai Party Secretary to Vice Premier), and then to the Politburo at the Central Committee Plenary Session or Party Congress.
Xi Jinping and other members of the Standing Committee attend an event at Tiananmen Square in Beijing on Sept. 30. (Noel Celis/AFPvia Getty Images)
Beijing-based Dovetail said on May 1 that the Politburo, the core of power in the Communist Party, is basically fixed to consist of 25 members. The list of the next 25 members of the Politburo will not be revealed until the first plenary session of the 20th Central Committee is held, according to the usual practice. But the indications are that Xi’s re-election to the 20th Congress is almost beyond doubt.
As for Xi’s partner, Li Keqiang, who was born in 1955, may have to be “reassigned” according to the rules of the Communist Party of China, even though he has not passed the red line because he has already served two consecutive terms as premier of the State Council. Li Zhanshu, who is currently the chairman of the National People’s Congress, was born in 1950 and is the oldest, and is expected to leave politics with Han Zheng, the first vice premier of the State Council, who also crossed the age line at the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China.
The other three members of the Standing Committee are Wang Huning, born in 1955, Zhao Leji, born in 1957, and Wang Yang, born in 1955, all of whom are under age and have only been “in the Standing Committee” for one term.
The situation of the 18 members of the Central Politburo is more complicated. According to the report, the 20 members of the Central Politburo who retired due to overage are Xu Qiliang, Wang Chen, Liu He, Sun Chunlan, Yang Jiechi, Chen Xi, Yang Xiaodu, Zhang Yuman and Guo Shengkun, a total of nine.
The nine members of the Central Political Bureau who have not passed the age red line are difficult to predict precisely their future career paths. six local powerhouses should not stand still according to tradition, but “entering Beijing” does not mean “rising high”.
The report mentioned that Hu Chunhua, currently the third-ranking vice premier in the State Council, is now at the “ceiling” position, either “into the permanent” or “flat transfer” to other party and government systems, will be the most likely destination. The probability is that he will be transferred to another party system.
Radio Free Asia has also analyzed that Li Keqiang’s biggest possibility is to retire voluntarily. The current Politburo members younger than Li Keqiang, Li Qiang, Chen Miner and Ding Xuexiang, three of Xi Jinping’s old minions, are all nine times more likely to join the Standing Committee, plus whether the next premier will be Hu Chunhua or not, Hu’s promotion to the Standing Committee at the 20th Congress is still a possibility.
According to the report, one of the possible lists of the new Standing Committee of the Central Politburo that will emerge from the 20th CPC Congress is: Xi Jinping, Zhao Leji, Hu Chunhua, Wang Huning, Chen Miner, Ding Xuexiang and Li Qiang.
However, some analysts believe that it is difficult to predict whether the 20th CPC National Congress can be held as the CCP is facing internal and external problems.
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