Hongfan eight policies, food for the first political.
Throughout history, food security has been a top priority for the country and the state, and is the top priority for those in power.
Last year, at the height of the epidemic in February and March, some places began to rush to buy rice. Officials soon began to respond, reiterating the current state of the country’s food sufficiency.
China’s grain production has been bumper for five consecutive years, with an annual output of more than 650 million tons of grain and a staple food supply rate of more than 98%; – China’s imports of rice and wheat account for less than 2% of the total grain supply and are mainly for improved consumption; – China currently has grain reserves are very sufficient, with 120 million tons of rice in storage and 140 million tons of wheat in storage, which is enough to feed the whole country for a year just by storing grain.
It can be said that our country is basically self-sufficient in food.
But even in this context, the data released by the online query platform for customs statistics shows that in the first quarter of 2021, China’s grain imports reached the highest peak in recent years, with imports of corn alone increasing by 437.8%.
In the case of grain sufficiency, the reason behind the big purchase of food must not be simple.
01
Corn and other food imports surged
General Administration of Customs announced on April 13 the increase in imports of China’s major commodities in the first quarter of 2021, including a total of 37.606 million tons of grain imports in the first quarter, an increase of 62.3% year-on-year!
It is important to know that last year, despite the impact of the epidemic, but China’s grain production in general remained stable, basically able to meet domestic demand.
Food is part of the immediate needs, is a necessity of life, the demand generally tends to stabilize, how many people will eat how much food. Even if there is a group of people, this year’s appetite, crazy eating, will not cause a year of food demand soaring.
And specific breakdown, the largest demand for food imports is corn, China’s first quarter corn imports of 6.727 million tons, a surge of 437.8% imports! Soaring more than five times over the same period the previous year!
And quarterly wheat imports more than doubled over the same period last year, up 131.2%! to 2.295 million tons.
Even the lesser increase in imports of soybeans, in the first quarter, soybean imports 21.178 million tons, an increase of about 19%.
Major grain imports are surging, a phenomenon that shows that China is buying grain on the international market.
02
“Buying grain “at any cost
Many people will think it’s nothing, maybe the price of food has fallen and we are buying some in advance to stock up.
In fact, otherwise, China’s purchase of food this time, said to be regardless of cost.
From the perspective of international food prices, data released in January this year, global food prices have risen for nine consecutive months, the FAO food price index rose 26.5% year-on-year.
Food here mainly includes cereals, vegetable oils, dairy products, sugar and meat. Looking at the relevant indices measuring food prices, global food prices have been on the rise since the new crown epidemic, hitting the highest values in recent years.
Corn prices have soared from an initial price of about $1.88 per kilogram for tide grain all the way to $2.60 per kilogram for tide grain, up about 29% since November 2020, when Heilongjiang corn entered the buying season. International corn prices rose 11.2% in January from a year earlier, and if it is January 2020 from a year earlier they jumped 42.3%.
The international market for wheat is also at a seven-year high, compared to January last year is up 54%. That’s a rise of more than 50% in one year.
And, from April, international grain prices continue to rise, corn, soybeans, wheat broke through a new high in eight years, of which corn rose the most, up 38.6%, wheat rebounded to 14%, soybeans were up 17%.
International corn has now risen to $673.25 per bushel and has been up for five consecutive weeks.
In the first quarter, global food prices hit a record high in the history stage, the cost of food purchases rose significantly, but it is in this context, China’s grain imports increased exponentially, so regardless of the cost of food purchases, can not be described as perverse.
Here, many people may say is not part of the domestic grain sowing area becomes smaller, forcing imports to increase?
In fact, it is not, take a quarter of imports increased by more than four times the corn.
China’s corn sowing area is generally growing year by year, and the corn sowing area in 2019 is 44.968 million hectares.
China’s corn sown area in 2015-2019 period is generally growing year by year, in 2019 China’s corn sown area of 449.668 million hectares, an increase of 1.8%.
In 2020, China’s corn sown area is also basically stable, with a sown area of about 45 million hectares. And China’s corn consumption in general, there are no huge fluctuations, the overall is also very stable.
At the same time, the major grain-producing province – Heilongjiang, 2020 will be based on the market supply and demand research, Heilongjiang early that release corn, soybean producer subsidy policy signals, a clear “2020 soybean producer subsidy standard basically remain stable, corn producer subsidy standard appropriate increase The general principle of “2020 soybean producer’s subsidy rate remains stable and corn producer’s subsidy rate is increased appropriately” to guide farmers to determine their planting intention as early as possible.
Agricultural dispatch shows that the province’s 2020 grain crop area continues to expand compared to the previous year, and shows a trend of stable rice and increased corn and wheat.
In terms of expectations, grain supply is stable and rising, so why buy grain regardless of cost?
03
Prepare for future risks!
There are absolutely profound considerations for China to buy grain on the international market on such a large scale.
Food is one of the most crucial resources for human society. If a machine has no energy, it will at most stop, but if a person has no food to eat, he or she will die.
Behind food is the stability of society, and food security is a matter of survival.
According to a UN report, 130 million new hungry people will be added to the global population under the impact of the epidemic, and 690 million people will be starving worldwide, with 25 countries at serious risk of hunger.
Several major food exporting countries have introduced policies to restrict or even ban food exports in order to protect themselves. Vietnam took the lead in announcing a halt to rice exports; rice exporter India also came to a standstill due to a major outbreak, and wheat exporter Russia also restricted sales.
Even the United States, the most powerful country on the surface of agriculture, has been hit by a small impact. A recent study shows that about 34% of U.S. households are already in a state of “food insecurity”.
A food crisis is on the horizon!
China, the world’s most populous country, is facing a 50-year food crisis and must plan for it.
But these are not the key factors.
Seeing that China is now buying strategic goods like food on such a large scale and without regard to cost, it is preparing for a possible future conflict. Right now, China’s security environment and the international situation are changing rapidly.
And the communiqué of the Fifth Plenum mentions two points.
- to comprehensively strengthen military training and preparation for war
- To ensure national food security and improve the quality, efficiency and competitiveness of agriculture.
The soldiers and horses have not moved food and grass first, no need to elaborate you can guess the meaning of it. Whether it will break out or not, it is always right to do some preparation, the action is so obvious and frequent, proving that the atmosphere is getting more and more tense, the future may not really think so good. From the point of view of food, the top is already made the worst possible plan.
But in any case, there is no doubt that this century of unprecedented changes, by our generation to catch up.
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