Data show India’s second wave of the epidemic may have peaked and there is still a long way to go before it ends

India’s 2019 coronavirus disease (Chinese communist virus, COVID-19) outbreak data over the past 2 weeks all point to a second wave of the local outbreak that may have peaked, or will do so in the coming days, but there is still a long way to go before the outbreak ends.

“The Indian Express” (The Indian Express) reported that after reaching a peak of 414,000 new cases in India in a single day on the 6th, the number of confirmed cases has dropped significantly in the past week. The Indian Ministry of Health reported yesterday that the number of confirmed cases in the past 24 hours came to 362,727.

Although this is not the first time the phenomenon, for example, on April 30, the first single-day confirmed cases crossed the 400,000 threshold, then decreased in the next few days, but then climbed again.

This time, however, the 7-day average number of new diagnoses, adjusted for daily fluctuations, has also begun to decrease for the first time since the second wave of the outbreak. The 7-day average number of confirmed cases in India reached a peak of 391,000 on the 8th, but fell to 375,000 on the 12th.

According to the report, the average number of new cases in India on a single day has decreased for five days, which may not be enough to determine the trend; however, there are other data showing that the epidemic has cooled down.

For example, Maharashtra province, which once accounted for more than 60% of the new cases diagnosed in India on a single day, is definitely showing a downward trend. Since the province reported a record high of 68,631 people infected in a single day three weeks ago, the figures hovered at 50,000 or 60,000 for the next two weeks and have now fallen to more than 40,000.

Reuters reports that Bhramar Mukherjee, a professor of epidemiology at the University of Michigan, also tweeted that most predictive models show that the second wave of the epidemic in India will peak this week and that India may be showing signs of a cooling trend.

However, India reported 4,120 cases of the disease in a single day yesterday, the second day in a row that the number of cases was above 4,000. As the number of new infections declines and the vaccine is in short supply, Indian authorities have extended the interval between doses of the two-dose vaccine from British pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca (AZ) to a maximum of 16 weeks.

Mukherjee cautioned that the number of confirmed patients in India is increasing daily, still more than enough to overwhelm hospitals, so the “key word for the epidemic in India is cautious optimism”.

In the Northern Province (Uttar Pradesh), which has a population of more than 240 million and is the top province in India, the lack of proper treatment for rural patients is particularly serious. Television footage shows people in rural hospitals crying as their family members die of the epidemic, or staying temporarily in wards to care for patients.