India outbreak spreads to Asia, second wave not yet over, third wave predicted

India’s new crown epidemic continues to burn and even spread to neighboring countries. The picture shows the scene of crematorium in Nepal.

Since March, India’s new crown (Chinese communist virus) epidemic continues to burn, and even spread to neighboring countries, while the epidemic in some countries in Southeast Asia and Central Asia also soared. Experts say that India may even rise a third wave after the second wave has passed.

India’s epidemic extended to Asia or related to the variant of the virus

According to the World Health Organization reported Tuesday (11), in recent weeks, India still accounts for half of the global number of confirmed cases, deaths accounted for 1/3. while the number of confirmed cases in neighboring countries also surged, worrying.

Countries surrounding India where the outbreak is currently on the rise include.

Nepal, Bhutan, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, Maldives, Thailand, Laos, Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia and at least 11 other countries.

Countries with rising epidemics around India include: Nepal, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, Maldives, Thailand, etc.

Among them, Nepal and India have a land border of about 1880 kilometers, the two countries are in close contact, the rising epidemic curve of the country, almost the same as India, known as the “second India”. According to the Red Cross, two out of five people in Nepal test positive for the disease.

Sri Lanka, Maldives, although the population and land area is small, but the new crown cases are surging, the magnitude of the curve also tends to India. (Recommended reading: Six Asian countries have a surge in cases worried about the epidemic out of control such as India)

Cambodia and Vietnam, which originally belonged to the countries with the least number of infections in the world, have also seen a recent upsurge in the epidemic.

Even remote Central Asian countries, such as Afghanistan, also seems to be affected.

Indian variant of the virus, may be one of the reasons for the surge of cases in countries such as Nepal.

The Indian variant, B.1.617, was classified by WHO as a “variant of special concern” (VOC) on the 11th.

Maria Van Kerkhove, WHO’s technical lead for the new crown, said, “There is some evidence of increased transmission of the Indian variant.” And because this variant has only been gaining attention in the last two months, other studies are still ongoing, and its lethality, and impact on vaccines, is not yet known.

The Indian variant and the British variant have been found in native cases in Nepal. However, many countries in South and Central Asia are not sure if the Indian variant is present because of limited virus genome sequencing and detection capabilities.

The decline in the number of confirmed cases in India in early May may be an illusion

The outbreak in India spiked almost linearly in April, declined in early May, but rose again on May 5.

However, it remains to be seen whether the drop in confirmed cases in India in early May was all due to a slowdown in the epidemic.

It is worth noting that the number of people tested in India was originally around 2 million per day. But in early May, the number of tests fell to 1.5 million. And on May 5, the number of tests rose again to 2 million.

Therefore, the drop in the number of confirmed diagnoses may also be related to the drop in the number of tests.

The drop in the number of confirmed diagnoses in India at the beginning of May could also be related to the drop in the number of tests.

The rate of positive tests in a locality, i.e., the proportion of confirmed infections, is more reflective of the local outbreak. Gautam Menon, a professor of biology at Ashoka University in India, said the rate of positive tests in India is still high and there is no reason to say that the second wave of the peak has passed. (Recommended reading: When will the epidemic peak in India? Seven questions to understand at once)

Is a “third wave” of the epidemic in India inevitable?

While the second wave of the epidemic is still spreading, K. Vijay Raghavan, chief scientific adviser to the Indian government, warned that “a third wave of the epidemic in India is almost inevitable.

He noted that this is because of the high levels of the virus currently spreading in India.

According to Our World in Data, a database from Oxford University in England, the average positive test rate in India is more than 20 percent. And in some areas, even higher, such as Goa, where one in two people have been tested for the new crown.

Raghuvan said the second wave of the epidemic in India is fierce, beyond anyone’s expectation. As for when the third wave will occur, it is not yet possible to predict, but he expects the government to be prepared in advance to reduce the loss of people.