At a time of heightened tensions in the Taiwan Strait, a new poll in Taiwan shows that as many as 66.3 percent of Taiwan’s respondents believe that it is unlikely that China will achieve reunification with Taiwan in the next 10 years, and more than one-third of the public’s overall impression of the mainland has worsened, with the percentage of worsening increasing by three percentage points.
Taiwan’s “Vision Magazine” released on Sunday evening (Nov. 29) the latest results of a poll it conducted in November. According to the magazine, with the U.S. presidential election largely decided and international relations entering a new normal, this annual survey of Taiwan’s public sentiment focuses on Taiwan people’s views on the economy and cross-strait relations.
This year, China has been a constant threat to Taiwan, with military aircraft frequently entering Taiwan’s southwestern airspace, overflying the centerline of the strait, and other disturbing actions becoming commonplace; the two sides of the Taiwan Strait have repeatedly confronted each other on issues such as Hong Kong and Taiwan independence, and Taiwanese people have repeatedly marched in solidarity with Hong Kong’s pro-democracy activities.
In this climate, the latest poll shows that 66.3% of the people surveyed believe that it is impossible for China to reunify with Taiwan in the next 10 years. The percentage of those who believe that China will likely reunify with Taiwan within 10 years is 17.6%.
As for the overall impression of the mainland, 33.7% of the respondents felt that their impression of the mainland has become worse, which is an increase of 3 percentage points compared to last year, while the percentage of those who felt that their impression has become better has decreased by 1.6 percentage points to 24.3%.
The survey also found that Taiwan people’s position on unification and independence has fluctuated. The proportion of those who “support Taiwan’s independence” increased to 29.8% from 25.5% last year; the proportion of those who “support reunification with the mainland” increased slightly to 6.3%, and the proportion of those who “maintain the status quo forever” increased to 6.3%. The proportion of “maintain the status quo” is 25.1%, an all-time high.
If the options of “maintaining the status quo first and then looking” and “maintaining the status quo forever” are combined into “maintaining the status quo”, the percentage of “maintaining the status quo” is more than 50%, much higher than the percentage of “supporting Taiwan’s independence”.
However, it is noteworthy that, despite the recent frequent friction between the two sides, 64.2% of Taiwan people believe that the two sides should increase interaction, which is 0.6 percentage points higher than last year, and only 21.1% believe that the two sides should reduce communication, which is slightly lower than last year.
However, according to an October poll commissioned by the Taiwan Election and Democratization Survey (TEDS) and conducted by the Electoral Research Center of National Chengchi University, 63.4% of respondents support “peaceful independence” for Taiwan, while those who support “war independence” support “peaceful independence” for Taiwan. Both figures are at 16-year highs, with 44.2% of the total.
On the other hand, according to this latest poll by Farsighted, 39.3% of respondents are not optimistic about Taiwan’s overall economy next year, while 52.2% believe the mainland economy will be more competitive.
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