At present, 12 provinces in China have entered into deep aging, namely Liaoning, Chongqing, Sichuan, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Shandong, Anhui, Hunan, Tianjin and Hubei.
On May 11, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the main data results of the 7th National Population Census.
The data show that the national population, the population aged 0-14 is 25,338,938, accounting for 17.95%; the population aged 15-59 is 894,376,020, accounting for 63.35%; the population aged 60 and above is 264,018,766, accounting for 18.70%, of which the population aged 65 and above is 190635280 people, accounting for 13.50%.
By province, except for Tibet, the proportion of the elderly population aged 65 and above in 30 provinces is more than 7%, of which 12 provinces have more than 14% of the elderly population aged 65 and above.
Deeply aging and super-aging society
According to the international standard, when the proportion of population aged 65 and above in a country or region exceeds 7%, it means entering aging; reaching 14%, it is deep aging; exceeding 20%, it is entering a super-aging society. In other words, there are already 12 provinces in China that have entered the stage of deep aging, which are Liaoning, Chongqing, Sichuan, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Shandong, Anhui, Hunan, Tianjin and Hubei. These provinces are mainly located in Northeast China, North China and the Yangtze River Basin.
Among them, Liaoning ranks first in the country with 17.42% of its population aged 65 and above, moving toward a super-aging society. In addition, Jilin and Heilongjiang in Northeast China are both over 15%.
Yi Baozhong, a professor at Northeast Asia Research Institute of Jilin University, analyzed to CBN that due to the economic downturn, insufficient industrial development and reduced employment opportunities, the population in Northeast China has continued to exodus in recent years, and the exodus is dominated by young people and the working population, coupled with a low fertility rate, so the aging population accounts for a relatively high percentage.
This ratio also reached 17.08% in Chongqing, ranking second, and 16.93% in Sichuan, ranking third. Overall, Sichuan and Chongqing, as the most densely populated region in the western region, have a total population of 115.73 million people in both places. The total population is huge, and in recent years, with the rapid economic development of Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration, the pace of urbanization and industrialization has been accelerated, and many laborers stay in the local employment nearby. However, at the same time, there is still a considerable part of labor force flowing to the developed areas in the southeast coast, and the proportion is not small, and the degree of aging is also relatively high due to the outflow of young labor force.
The situation of Anhui, Hunan and Hubei, the big central provinces, is also similar to that of Sichuan and Chongqing. Because of their proximity to the developed southeast coastal regions, the youth population in these places flows more to Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai, and therefore the aging degree in these large population provinces is also higher.
Among the eastern coastal provinces, the degree of aging shows obvious differences. Shandong and Tianjin, the two northern coastal provinces, have both aged deeply. Among them, this percentage has reached 15.13% in Shandong, the third largest economic province. The population aged 65 and above in Shandong has reached 15.36 million, which is the largest total aging population in the country.
From the perspective of the three age groups, Shandong shows the characteristics of “high at both ends and low in the middle”, i.e., the working-age population is relatively low, while the old and young populations are relatively high, which is also related to the population outflow from Shandong in recent years. Ding Changfa, associate professor of economics department of Xiamen University, analyzed to the first financial reporter, Shandong’s traditional industries are relatively high, including heavy chemical industries such as coal and steel, and the gap between new industries and Guangdong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang is very big, so the attractiveness to young people is not as good as Jiangsu and Zhejiang.
Yangtze River Delta aging is deeper, the Pearl River Delta is still relatively young
In the coastal provinces, the degree of aging is deeper in the Yangtze River Delta, Jiangsu and Shanghai.
Jiangsu, the second largest economic province, has 16.2% of its population aged 65 and above, which is the deepest aging among the four economic provinces. The reason for the high degree of aging in Jiangsu is that, on the one hand, Jiangsu has industrialized and urbanized earlier and has long had a relatively low birth rate; on the other hand, compared to Guangdong and Zhejiang, Jiangsu attracts less net inflow of people from outside the province.
Tian Bo-ping, a researcher at the Jiangsu Academy of Social Sciences, analyzed to Firstrade that Jiangsu’s low foreign population is related to its economic development model. Guangdong and Zhejiang are market-centered, relying on a variety of national markets as a backing, vigorously develop the private economy, more room for foreigners to stay, more people employed within the market and the development of people around the market. In contrast, Jiangsu is mainly a manufacturing industry, a production center, not a market center, so that the inflow of people will also be less.
According to the statistics of the First Financial Reporter, the natural growth rate of the household population last year, including Wuxi, Changzhou, Zhenjiang, Yancheng, Yangzhou and Taizhou, was negative, among which, Wuxi, Changzhou and Yancheng were the first cities with negative natural population growth in many years. Only, for Wuxi and Changzhou, two cities in southern Jiangsu, although the natural population growth rate is negative, the household population in these two places is still growing due to the developed economy and the liberalization of the household registration threshold, so the inflow of population is high.
In contrast, Zhejiang, the fourth largest economic province, which is also located in the Yangtze River Delta, has a population of 13.27% aged 65 and above, which is lower than the national average due to the large inflow of population.
Guangdong, the number one economic province with the fastest growing population, has only 8.58% of its population aged 65 and above, ranking third from the bottom in the country and still far away from deep aging. In general, the demographic structure of the Pearl River Delta is much younger than that of the Yangtze River Delta, and the advantage of the “demographic dividend” is more prominent.
Peng Peng, the executive chairman of the Guangdong Institutional Reform Association, analyzed to the first financial reporter that one of the reasons why the PRD is younger is that the proportion of foreign population is higher, because the foreign workers are mainly young people. Although the Yangtze River Delta also has a large foreign population, the proportion of the total resident population is not as high as that of the PRD.
According to an analysis by the Guangdong Provincial Bureau of Statistics in May last year, the age structure of Guangdong’s resident population is “elderly” (static perspective) by international standards, due to the birth rate and population mobility and migration, especially the relatively large size of the migrant population, which makes the aging process of Guangdong’s population slower than The ageing process of Guangdong’s population is slower than that of other provinces due to the birth rate, population mobility and migration, especially the relatively large size of foreign population.
Recent Comments