China’s census results are in, and the labor shortage continues to worsen

The latest census released by the Chinese government shows a further worsening of the population gap, which could cast a deeper shadow on China’s economic development prospects and population health and social welfare protection.

China’s State Council census team and the National Bureau of Statistics released their decennial census report on Tuesday (May 11, 2021), showing that China’s population reached 1.411.78 billion people and that the average annual population growth rate over the past decade was 0.53 percent, which is another 0.04 percentage point drop from the previous decade’s annual population growth rate.

The new census also shows that the working-age population of young adults aged 15-59 is 63.35 percent of the total population, down 6.79 percentage points from 10 years ago, while the population aged 60 or older is 18.70 percent, up 5.44 percentage points from 10 years ago.

China’s rapid economic growth has long relied heavily on an inexhaustible supply of cheap labor, but as the working-age population declines, many companies are having difficulty finding suitable employees, and overall labor costs continue to rise. At the same time, an aging population, especially one that is growing before it is rich, means that the burden of social welfare on the government will continue to increase.

Most developed countries around the world are experiencing an aging population, but observers say China’s demographic problems stem largely from the government’s population policies, particularly the imposition of a one-child policy.

For the past several years, the government has allowed a family to have a second child. The latest census reported that the percentage of the population under 14 years old was 17.95 percent of the total population, up 1.35 percentage points from 10 years ago. Officials say this is evidence of the positive results of the government’s adjusted fertility policy. However, analysts say it is not enough to change the situation of China’s young and aging workforce, as many people of childbearing age are choosing to have only one child as social and cultural changes and the cost of raising children increase after the government’s long-standing one-child policy.