Analysts who follow China-Malaysia relations say the two countries have reached another quiet but prolonged impasse in waters where claims overlap, and each side is showing greater resolve to fight the other.
Earlier this month, the Chinese coast guard vessel 5402 was anchored near Luconia Shoals in waters north of Borneo, which Malaysia claims as its maritime exclusive economic zone, according to the Washington-based Asian Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI).
Beijing says the waters lie within its boundary line, which covers about 90 percent of the South China Sea. Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam all claim partial or full sovereignty over 3.5 million square kilometers of the South China Sea, which is rich in fisheries and energy.
The Asian Maritime Transparency Initiative, which is part of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a U.S.-based think tank, said the Chinese vessel harassed a Malaysian drilling rig and supply ships operating 44 nautical miles (81.5 kilometers) off the coast of Malaysia on Nov. 19. The agency’s Nov. 25 report said Malaysia deployed a naval vessel in response, which is currently tracking the Chinese vessel.
Malaysian scholars say such incidents are becoming commonplace and usually go unnoticed as the two governments have mostly chosen to get along and play down disputes.
Hu Yishan, a senior fellow at the Singapore Institute of International Affairs, said Malaysia is now keen to take “effective steps” to defend its sovereignty claims through the use of its maritime areas.
Malaysia submitted documents to the U.N. Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf in December 2019 regarding plans to extend its rights in the South China Sea beyond 370 kilometers from the baseline. The documents relate to applications made by Malaysia and Vietnam 10 years ago. The Chinese Mission to the UN raised objections.
Shahriman Lockman, senior analyst for foreign policy and security studies at the Malaysian Institute of Strategic and International Studies, said Malaysian vessels regularly engage in verbal protests with Chinese vessels.
He said the location of the Chinese coast guard’s presence this month and the Malaysian tracking made this incident notable.
Similar incidents occur once a week, he said.
Lockman said, “It’s rare for this to happen so close to the coast.” He added that Malaysian officials find the incidents disturbing, “but what can they do?”
Scholars say Malaysia is silent on its dispute with China because of the strong economic ties between the two countries. Malaysia views China as its largest export market, and China became Malaysia’s largest source of foreign investment in 2016. Malaysia’s Foreign Ministry announced on Nov. 18 that the country has signed a vaccine development agreement with China.
Over the past decade, Vietnamese and Philippine officials have often spoken out against China, especially when it has reclaimed some disputed waters to build islands for military use. Under President Trump, the U.S. government has stepped up military support for Southeast Asia and Taiwan as a way to counter China’s efforts.
The Asian Maritime Transparency Initiative also said that Chinese vessels sailed near the Malaysian site of operations in October 2019, targeting two specific oil and gas areas. It said the Chinese coast guard then patrolled near a drilling vessel owned by Malaysian oil and gas giant Petronas.
Hu Yishan of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs said the current stalemate has neither worsened nor prevented new Chinese ships from reaching the same waters. He said the Chinese ships near Malaysia “are usually there to make sure they have a presence there at all times”.
“We’re essentially just tracking them,” the Malaysian Hu Yishan said. “It’s not that we’re really trying to drive them away. If you’re asking whether it’s going to have a long-term deterrent effect, frankly, I don’t think so.”
Sun Yun, a senior fellow at the China Program at the Stimson Center, a Washington think tank, said it is unclear where U.S. President-elect Biden stands on China and domestic change in Malaysia, which would reduce the likelihood of an escalation of the conflict now.
Malaysian Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin only took office in March, and Malaysian media say he is considering a cabinet reshuffle.
Sun Yun said, “I don’t think the current events will get out of hand, but what we are more likely to see is that such events will become more common in the future.”
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