Every four years, after the U.S. presidential election, the intelligence community releases a report on the state of the world and provides a forecast for the next two decades. The 2021 edition highlights that the Covid-19 pandemic has caused “the greatest global disruption since World War II” in a year, and the global outlook describes a China-dominated international chaotic order.
U.S.-China competition dominates an increasingly unbalanced and divided world
The 2021 edition of the report notes that the New Crown (Chinese Communist virus) epidemic has caused the greatest disruption since World War II, amplifying and accelerating the effects of major upheavals. New-age features including the digital revolution, artificial intelligence, life engineering, global warming and declining birth rates have all combined to exacerbate current social tensions. These trends have also created a geopolitical backdrop of conflict and instability that will have to guide us for the next two decades.
The report characterizes the epidemic’s “post-world” as one of strong personal ties but fragmented communities, fragile individual identities, unprecedented migration pressures, an aging population, overwhelming debt pressures, a fragmented international system, generally richer but more unevenly distributed wealth… …and most importantly, globalization will continue in a chaotic manner and will be marked by competition between the United States and China.
The document envisions five possibilities for the world of the future. One of them is titled “A World Out of Control”. The speculation is that Western democracies will not fully recover from the Covid-19 pandemic, that their societies are increasingly divided and that the world is slowly descending into anarchy. The international order was described as “directionless, chaotic and unstable.
The Erosion of Democracy
The erosion of democracy is likely to continue for at least the next decade, if not longer. (……) The long-term legitimacy of democracy depends on two general conditions: the maintenance of a just, inclusive, and equitable political process, and the achievement of positive outcomes for the people. Responding to public concerns about corruption, elite monopolies, and inequality can help restore public trust and enhance the legitimacy of institutions. In addition, the provision of effective services, economic stability, and personal security – the historical strengths of democracies – can increase public satisfaction. (…)
Fragile Authoritarian Regimes
Authoritarian regimes will face the same risks as democracies, some of which will have difficulty adapting, and after a period of apparent stability, sudden and violent changes of government are more likely. Although authoritarian regimes from China to the Middle East have shown resistance, they still exhibit clear structural weaknesses: widespread corruption, over-reliance on raw materials, and individualistic rulers. (…)
International Chaos
Over the next two decades, the intensity of competition for global influence is expected to reach its highest level since the Cold War. (…) In this more competitive global environment, the risk of intercontinental conflict is likely to increase due to technological advances and the expansion of the number of targets, the variety of players, and the dynamics of deterrence; international treaties and standards will be weakened. The militaries of powerful nations may strive to avoid intense conflict or even all-out war by avoiding high human and material costs. However, the risk of such conflicts erupting due to miscalculations or refusal to compromise on fundamental issues may increase. (…)
The 2021 edition of the CIA report envisages, inter alia, a new international order of “chaos” dominated by Beijing.
In a related article in the French weekly La Point, author Luc de Barochez points out that geopolitical competition between the United States and China will dominate the next two decades. In its forward-looking report on the state of the world by 2040, the CIA brings together material from the CIA and other U.S. intelligence agencies to describe an increasingly uneven and divided world with competition at all levels.
Communist China Exploits the West’s Difficulties to Expand Its International Influence
China is at the forefront of this “runaway world” script, and it will exploit the West’s difficulties to expand its international influence. China’s growing aggression in Asia, the report’s authors write, “increases the risk of armed conflict with other regional powers, particularly over key resources.” At the same time, developing countries with young populations and high unemployment rates will have to meet China’s demands as they look to receive much-needed investment and aid.” An excerpt of the report’s section on China reads.
“Uncertainty over the crisis and erratic government responses have stifled investment and job creation, plunging North America and Europe into a period of sluggish growth, a situation many analysts have compared to Japan’s “lost decade” of the 1990s, when many developing countries stagnated. Some of these have shifted to China, and some governments have fallen, especially in Africa and the Middle East. “
“International challenges have escalated, including terrorism and the decline of human development. Flows of migrants fleeing conflict, environmental catastrophe and economic decline continue to flow to wealthier countries in Europe, Asia and North America.”
China is not trying to create a new world order, but rather focusing on promoting industrial development
“Indeed, China itself experienced many of the same environmental and social problems during this period, but was made more adaptable by its stronger social cohesion and confidence, flexible leadership, centralized authority, ability to provide jobs, goods and services, and a political system that suppressed competing voices.”
The report notes that “domestic demand has contributed to sufficient GDP growth rates to enable China to catch up with the United States and become the world’s largest economy by 2030, albeit at a much slower pace than during the boom years of the 1990s and 2000s. Huge infrastructure projects to address the effects of climate change, such as the Shanghai Protection Embankment, are being emulated globally. Similar infrastructure development programs and regular foreign aid and investment have helped China gain influence in developing countries.”
“Despite these advances, China continues to work to address security threats on its periphery and within its territory. Beijing has been wary of international disputes and leadership roles outside its immediate region. Rather than attempting to create a new world order, China has focused on promoting industrial development and establishing technological standards that advance its development goals.”
Many governments are content to take advantage of the vast Chinese market and reap other benefits, such as helping with domestic surveillance and security systems, but few are willing to live in an international order led by China. The United States tries to maintain ties with its allies in the region, but Japan and South Korea have pursued increasingly independent military modernization programs, even their own nuclear weapons programs, in part because they fear U.S. reliability against China and North Korea.
In 2035, China’s position in Asia becomes unassailable, especially after it succeeds in forcing the government of the Republic of China to sit at the unification negotiating table.
China’s ecological and military coercive victories mark a turning point in the region, demonstrating Beijing’s ability to intimidate America’s close partners and forcing China’s neighbors to worry about the PLA’s focus on solving other regional problems.
The report notes that no other country can challenge the rise of the Chinese regime in the region. Russia is generally aligned with it, but its importance has diminished over time. While India has benefited from Asia’s growth, it will take years before it can face, or even better, contain its more powerful neighbors […]”
It is worth noting that the 2009 version of the CIA report warned of a virus epidemic that could emerge in the Far East and subsequently spread to the global ball like wildfire
Recent Comments