Hong Kong looks for a bottoming out after falling to its lowest point since reunification

November 25 was an unusual day for Hong Kong, as Chief Executive Carrie Lam read out the new Policy Address for the new year. She said that the primary objective of the Policy Address is to help Hong Kong get out of its predicament as soon as possible and to restore public confidence. Meanwhile, an opinion poll has found that Hong Kong people’s confidence is at its lowest point since the handover. People have failed in five core social indicators, namely, “freedom”, “prosperity”, “rule of law”, “stability” and “democracy”.

Continued Failure in Five Social Indicators

On November 24, a pollster, POP, released a public opinion survey, which shows that Hong Kong people’s ratings on five core social indicators, on a scale of 0 to 10, continue to fail, with all ratings below 5.

The poll was conducted in mid-November by random telephone interviews with 1,005 Hong Kong residents. The ratings of “freedom”, “prosperity”, “stability”, “rule of law” and “democracy” were 4.60, 4.57, 4.15, 4.05 and 3.74 respectively, with a score of 4.60, 4.57, 4.15, 4.05 and 3.74 respectively. All five indicators are close to their record lows since 1997.

Compared to one month ago, “Prosperity” has registered a significant increase of 0.27 marks, while “Freedom” has dropped further by 0.01 mark. However, the failure has lasted for 3 months.

HKPRI’s Deputy Chief Executive Officer, Mr. Kimmo Chung, said that although some indicators have risen slightly, they are still close to their historical lows. The recent slight rebound does not mean that the government has regained public confidence. He also pointed out that all five core social indicators are below 5 points, saying, “There is no need to be too happy.

Of course, Hong Kong people’s lack of confidence is not only reflected in the social indicators. On the 24th, the organization “Youth Research Hong Kong” released a survey on people’s opinion on the government’s anti-epidemic policies and measures, showing that about 80% of the respondents were dissatisfied with the government’s anti-epidemic performance, while 90.5% of the respondents supported the government’s implementation of more stringent anti-epidemic measures.

However, with confidence at an all-time low, Hong Kong actually has a chance to bottom out, and it is up to the Hong Kong government to seize this opportunity in the future. Unlike previous policy addresses, the Chief Executive began to talk at great length about the implementation of the National Security Law with the support of the Central Government, which has brought opportunities for stability to Hong Kong. This policy address is different from previous ones in that it emphasizes maintaining the “prosperity and stability” of Hong Kong. The most important feature of this policy address seems to be the word “stability” and that only a stable Hong Kong can have prosperity. The emphasis is on “stability and prosperity”.

The most important thing is freedom in a stable Hong Kong!

Hong Kong people often talk about core values, what exactly are the core values of Hong Kong, the opinions vary. According to a survey conducted by the Hong Kong Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies of the Chinese University, relatively more respondents chose the rule of law (22.9%) and freedom (20.8%).

Because of freedom and the rule of law, Hong Kong was once prosperous and stable, attracting global foreign investment, a world-class financial center, with economic growth of 3% in 2018, per capita GDP of $48,700, good social norms and social order, civilized and qualified citizens, and a concentration of talents from around the world. However, the dual impact of the anti-amendment storm and the epidemic has disillusioned all the aura that once surrounded Hong Kong. The first to be affected are freedom and the rule of law.

Among them, the discussion around freedom and the rule of law has never ceased, on the basis of stability, the most important thing for Hong Kong is freedom. Hong Kong is a capitalist free market, the loss of freedom is the loss of the meaning of the existence of the capitalist market. But there are different opinions about freedom, with some saying that Hong Kong’s freedom is constantly being eroded and others saying that it is irrelevant that the SAR government has been caught in a neoliberal trap for a long time.

The Basic Law stipulates that Hong Kong should adopt a capitalist system within 50 years after the handover. Capitalism is characterized by private ownership, market economy and distribution according to capital, and freedom under capitalism should be all-embracing. In fact, the National Security Law of Hong Kong also emphasizes that “social stability will be restored without changing the status of Hong Kong as an open and free society”.

Under “one country, two systems”, Hong Kong is of course premised on a high degree of autonomy and freedom. The Hong Kong government has been intervening less, hoping to enjoy more economic freedom, but social inequality, wealth gap, high property prices, low social mobility, etc. have also emerged. However, there are also problems of social inequality, wealth disparity, high property prices, and low social mobility. It seems that the persistence of laissez-faire has led to the accumulation of structural contradictions in society, which in turn has led to politicized confrontation. Freedom is freedom under a certain rule of law. How to preserve Hong Kong’s freedom, make good use of its advantages, and actively plan for a new direction, including a proactive and integrated understanding of “one country, two systems”, are the challenges and opportunities that Hong Kong will face in the future.

The government hopes for social stability, but the prerequisite for stability is freedom, and Hong Kong cannot prosper without freedom.

Hong Kong may have the opportunity to rebound

In September this year, the Fraser Institute, Canada, released its 2020 Annual Report on Economic Freedom of the World, again ranked Hong Kong as the world’s freest economy, followed by Singapore. Among the five major assessment categories, Hong Kong ranked first in “freedom of international trade” and “regulation”, but the report questioned the possible weakening of the rule of law in Hong Kong.

Recently, Hong Kong people’s confidence in freedom has also rebounded. According to HKUPOP, in early September this year, the freedom index score was only 4.13, but now 4.6 is already an improvement.

Outside of the epidemic, there is still a chance that Hong Kong will rebound from the bottom.

By today, Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor read out a new Policy Address at the Legislative Council, introducing about 200 new initiatives, including the provision of 316,000 public housing units over the next decade, the announcement of the Hong Kong Smart City Blueprint 2.0, the injection of 1 billion yuan for the CreativeSmart Initiative to promote creative industries, the provision of employment opportunities for young people in the Greater Bay Area, etc. Mrs. Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor said that the 30,000-word long Policy Address Based on the unswerving implementation of “one country, two systems”, “Hong Kong people ruling Hong Kong” and “a high degree of autonomy”.

On the economy, Mrs. Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor also said that Hong Kong’s economy has rebounded from the bottom in recent months, hoping that the worst is over and the economy gradually recovered.

However, the real rebound inseparable from freedom and the rule of law, as the core values of Hong Kong, the future of how to pursue, to ensure that it does not deteriorate in the development, not gone, for Hong Kong society is still a long way to go, and this is also related to the stability and prosperity of Hong Kong.