After The Economist magazine called Taiwan “the most dangerous place on earth,” some U.S. scholars and figures called on the U.S. government to make clear its willingness to defend Taiwan against Chinese aggression, but Kurt Campbell, the White House NSC’s Indo-Pacific coordinator, disagreed, saying that doing so would be “very detrimental.” He noted at a forum held by the Financial Times that maintaining some level of status quo in Taiwan would be in the best interest of both the U.S. and China.
Campbell, who served as assistant secretary of state for Asia-Pacific affairs in the Obama administration, was selected by then-president-elect Joe Biden in January to be the National Security Council’s coordinator for Indo-Pacific affairs.
Reuters reported that Campbell, attending a seminar held by the Financial Times, said it is right to be concerned about the Taiwan situation, but he believes that both the United States and China recognize that maintaining some degree of the status quo in Taiwan is in the best interest of both sides.
Some prominent U.S. scholars and others called on the U.S. government to give Taiwan a clearer security assurance, a question that was raised at the conference, to which Campbell replied, “I think there are some very negative (consequences) of what you talk about in terms of so-called strategic clarity (strategic clarity).
The United States is required under the Taiwan Relations Act to assist Taiwan in maintaining adequate self-defense capabilities. But Reuters mentioned that the U.S. has long followed a policy of “strategic ambiguity” and has not made clear whether it would take military action to defend Taiwan in the event of Chinese aggression.
Campbell noted that any conflict between the U.S. and China over Taiwan would not be limited to one corner; “I think (the conflict) would soon expand and fundamentally destroy the global economy, and I don’t think anyone can predict what that would be.
He also said there are concerns that China thinks it can get away with suppressing democracy in Hong Kong and “may draw the wrong conclusions” from it when dealing with Taiwan.
Campbell believes that the best way to maintain peace and stability is to combine diplomatic and U.S. defense innovation to send a comprehensive message to China.
According to him, given the proximity of U.S. and Chinese military deployments, the real short- and medium-term risks are from “accidents and inadvertence. He added that building mutual trust between Washington and Beijing ensures that they can communicate with each other in times of crisis. These precautions are similar to the inspections and safeguards used during the Cold War, although China has been reluctant to use them.
Campbell revealed, “So, we do have a hotline (hotline) and have used it a few times, but it just rings for a few hours in an empty room.” However, he did not cite specific examples to illustrate.
According to the Financial Times, Secretary of State John Blinken denied that the U.S. and China were engaged in a “cold war.
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