Minxin Pei, a leading expert on Chinese politics and economics and a professor at Claremont McKenna College (CMC), wrote an analysis last Thursday (April 29) that China’s role in the global economy has led the Communist Party of China (CPC) to increase its aggressive actions by arrogantly asserting itself. And this approach will precisely push itself to the edge of danger, causing otherwise neutral countries to lean more towards the United States, thus increasing the existential threat to the CCP.
In addition, Pei believes that the CCP’s arrogance will also lead to the abortive implementation of much-needed domestic reforms, thus bringing the Chinese economy to a standstill.
In an April 29 article in the Nikkei Asian Review, Minxin Pei said that Biden’s term in office is just over 100 days old, but as of now, hopes for a thaw in U.S.-China relations are rapidly fading between Washington and Beijing. Indeed, the Biden administration also sees the Chinese Communist Party as the most dangerous geopolitical opponent of the United States.
Few Chinese Communist leaders would deny that the United States poses an existential threat not only to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) but also to the CCP’s ambitions for global domination. The only question is how to set a bottom line in an increasingly hostile bilateral relationship and avoid direct military collisions.
CCP’s Arrogance May Drive Neutral Countries to the U.S.
According to Minxin Pei, the CCP has a set of advantages over the former Soviet Union that it does not possess. China’s central position in the global economy is demonstrated by its position as both the largest supplier of manufactured goods and the second largest import market, at $2 trillion in 2020. In dollar terms, China’s economy is now close to 75 percent of that of the United States.
The Chinese Communist government feels that few countries can afford to decouple from the Chinese economy and thus dare not do anything to the CCP. Pei Minxin believes that this thinking by the CCP may drive it to act aggressively, thus pushing countries that were neutral between the U.S. and China to move closer to the U.S., an outcome that is also the result of the CCP’s own arrogance.
For example, the CCP’s recent aggressive behavior in the South China Sea and its build-up of more than two hundred Chinese fishing boats near disputed Philippine islands has angered the Philippines. If the CCP’s aggressive behavior continues, it will likely create a strategic window for the United States, said Minxin Pei. The return of the U.S. Navy to Subic Bay in the Philippines would be a game-changer.
Philippine Presidential Legal Adviser Salvador Panelo said the prolonged presence of Chinese Communist ships creates an unnecessary stain on bilateral relations and “could trigger hostilities that neither country wants. The two countries can negotiate on issues of common interest and bilateral interests, but make no mistake, Philippine sovereignty is not negotiable.
Reuters said that while a string of Philippine diplomats and top generals have recently strongly criticized the Chinese Communist Party, the comments from the presidential office were unusually strong, as President Rodrigo Duterte has previously sought to befriend Beijing rather than confront it.
The Philippines and the United States have been conducting a two-week “shoulder-to-shoulder” joint military exercise since April 12, amid growing Chinese provocations. The two defense ministers spoke on the phone and reaffirmed their mutual commitment to the U.S.-Philippine alliance.
Similarly, the EU can no longer remain strategically neutral due to the Chinese Communist Party’s brutal stance on human rights issues. Last month, the EU sanctioned several Chinese Communist Party officials responsible for the crackdown on Uighurs in Xinjiang. Instead of a low-key response, Beijing announced sanctions against 10 Europeans and four European entities, which prompted a strong response from the EU and put the China-EU investment treaty in jeopardy.
Manfred Weber, president of the European People’s Party (EPP Group), the largest party group in the European Parliament, said, “China’s (CCP) attack on freely elected members of parliament shows us that Beijing has contempt for democracy and we will not be deterred. The EU’s (sanctions) against the Chinese Communist Party have our full support.”
Assita Kanko, MEP, responded on Monday that “China [the Chinese Communist Party] has no respect for the EU. It is time for a strategic analysis of our relationship with China.”
CCP’s overconfidence could also kill economic reforms
Pei Minxin said the CCP’s overconfidence could even abort much-needed domestic reforms. Textually, Beijing has just laid out a blueprint – its new five-year plan – to reorient its economy and achieve technological self-sufficiency. But its success is far from assured.
Pei Minxin argues that China’s tough domestic reforms, especially those that require reducing the role of state-owned enterprises and mobilizing the private sector, will require less party control, which will challenge Xi’s core belief in state capitalism and Communist Party supremacy. But without reform, China could fall into stagnation, as the Soviet Union did from the mid-1970s onward.
The possibility of hubris leading Beijing to make a series of strategic mistakes is not only real, but the probability is very high, Pei Minxin concludes. The CCP’s decision-making environment is characterized by an excessive concentration of power and a lack of dissenting voices and countervailing information, which is fertile ground for making false assumptions.
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