Energy and technology stocks under pressure, U.S. stocks fell in the last trading day in April, but the whole month, the S&P index rose 5.24%, the most powerful since November last year, the Dow and Nasdaq also rose 2.72% and 5.4%, respectively. As the first four months of this year, the S&P index has accumulated more than 10%, itself has been on the expensive side, coupled with the financial markets have been “May sell goods”, some market participants believe that it is a warning sign. U.S. investment bank Stifel managing director and chief equity strategist Barnister warned that from May to October this year, U.S. stocks are afraid to fall 10%; management of more than $2.2 billion asset management company Toews Asset Management CEO Tevers more forecasts that a major sell-off is coming, the S&P index will soon be wildly more than 30% chance of very large.
Barnister recently predicted that the S&P will fall to 3,750 points by the end of October, 431 points lower than last Friday (April 30). He believes that the S&P index P/E ratio is in bubble territory, which was last seen in 1998 to 1999, and between 1928 and 1929. He predicted that in the next few months, U.S. bond yields will rise again, will constitute downward pressure on the stock market.
Telfs also warned that the current level of insanity in U.S. stocks like the 17th century “tulip mania”, the next 12 to 24 months at some point will be wildly dipped, investors should pay attention to the pre-crash precursors, that is, the standard index rose or fell by more than 3% in a single day to be alert, because the large fluctuations are the common phenomenon before the great plunge in 2000.
Rockefeller global family office investment director Jimmy Chang also said that the recent part of the indicator companies despite strong results, but the stock price back to the smooth, reflecting the many good news has been digested, so the market is expected to retreat in the next few months.
However, U.S. stocks are still supported by a number of positive factors, including strong corporate performance, so even if the May pullback is not a big drop. According to Refinitiv information, so far a record 87% have announced results of the S&P component earnings beat expectations, an average increase of more than 46%.
Credit Suisse U.S. stock strategist Golub also raised the S&P target this year from 4,300 points to 4,600 points, or about 10% more than last Friday, a 22.5% gain for the year; JP Morgan also called for a reflationary deal to prepare for a resurgence as the economy restarts at a faster pace.
The first most important data in May for the latest U.S. employment figures released on Friday, local non-farm job growth in April is expected to accelerate to 978,000 or more, the unemployment rate is expected to fall from 6% in March to 5.7%. However, the data is bright but unfavorable, because it may trigger the market to the Federal Reserve Board early water collection expectations. Not only that, the Indian epidemic also adds gloom to the global economic recovery. Performance, this week, a number of companies continue to send the results of the table, the more concerned about the production of the new crown vaccine pharmaceutical companies Pfizer and Modena.
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