The Neue Zürcher Zeitung believes that although from a rational point of view, the CCP should not attack Taiwan immediately, Xi Jinping, who is wrapped up in nationalistic thinking, may well have a different perception of risk.
Chinese Communist Party aircraft carrier formations have recently appeared frequently in the waters around Taiwan
The Swiss newspaper Neue Zürcher Zeitung published a guest commentary by Dirk Schmidt, a China expert and professor at Trier University, under the title “Why the Chinese Communist Party may soon launch a war against Taiwan. According to the article, the biggest variable in the Taiwan Strait today is Xi Jinping himself.
The article notes that since the 1990s, all sides in the Taiwan Strait have believed that maintaining the status quo and strengthening cross-strait interdependence is the best solution.” All parties believe that the situation is in their favor. The U.S. and Taiwan were counting on China to open up political reforms, while the Chinese (Communist) side expected that the road to reunification would be automatically paved with the deepening of economic and trade ties. However, this historical phase is now a thing of the past, and all parties in the Taiwan Strait are the driving force behind the process.”
“In Taiwan, years of social change and democratic movements have created a particular ‘Taiwan identity.’ Young Taiwanese today see China as they see the Netherlands and Portugal, as former colonizers who once left their mark on the island but don’t have much involvement with the Taiwanese of today. As for the United States, some years ago it stepped up arms sales to Taiwan under Trump and raised the level of official engagement with Taiwan. The new Biden administration has more or less continued this policy, but with a different set of rhetoric.”
“The most important change, however, is clearly taking place in China under Xi Jinping. A few short years ago, the Communist Party’s policy toward Taiwan was pragmatic, but that has become a thing of the past. Today’s China is full of nationalistic cries, and the ideological sphere is in reverse. The Chinese economy is on the rise, and the attractiveness of the Chinese market to Western companies in particular has caused the leadership in Beijing to change its risk assessment. Xi Jinping has put forward the perception that the ‘East is rising and the West is falling’, a perception based on the Marxist materialistic view of history, that the CCP has a natural advantage in the institutional race with the West.”
“All of this is not so far as to necessarily lead to a military conflict between the CCP and Taiwan. In the short term, Beijing’s strategy toward Taiwan will continue to be one of military provocation, diplomatic isolation, economic incentives, cyber attacks, and political infiltration. The key player, however, is Xi Jinping personally, which includes both positive and negative aspects. The positive element is that Xi Jinping, who is firmly entrenched in power, is the only one who can restrain the expanding nationalist aspirations of Chinese society. But on the other hand, there are indications that Xi Jinping sees himself as the only guarantee of the rise of the Chinese (Communist) state, and the reunification of Taiwan is considered one of the key symbols of the rise of the Chinese (Communist) state. Thus, in a political system with totalitarian tendencies and tailored around Xi Jinping, the level of Xi’s own willingness to take risks will be a key variable going forward.”
“Outside analysts would expect that those in power in Beijing would rationally avoid unconditionally inflaming the situation because of the high cost of military adventures. However, this perspective is only one aspect of the CCP’s calculus. We must likewise note that those in power in the CCP are constantly emphasizing the sacrificial spirit of the Chinese people, and Xi Jinping himself is capitalizing on this heroic sentiment…. This ideological propaganda has the potential to spawn a deadly dynamic.”
“The Taiwan Strait is also a central issue for European well-being. Both China and Taiwan are key links in the high-tech transnational industrial chain. A severe drought could have a major impact on the output of TSMC, the global chip foundry giant, and the subsequent tightening of chip supplies for Western companies. If a military conflict breaks out in the Taiwan Strait that involves the United States, the consequences are even more predictable.”
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