[Heavyweight Quotes
Gold finally picked up in April, although the short-term trend is still tangled, but zoom in on the cycle, spot gold from the beginning of the month near $ 1700 on the way up, once approaching the 1800 mark, although the second half of the month obviously lack of upward momentum, currently fell back to near $ 1770, but the monthly total is expected to end the previous 3 consecutive negative; spot silver trend is similar, basically locked in a 6% monthly gain.
It is worth noting that several major domestic banks tightened their precious metals business in April, all “to prevent business risks” moved to the front of the head.
Gold’s rebound, thanks in large part to the dollar, U.S. bond yields softened. In the first quarter of this year, the U.S. debt market turmoil once the global markets riot, and in April, the U.S. bond yields have been extinguished, most of the time hovering under 1.70%; as for the dollar index is to reverse the trend, out of the one-sided down market, April had fallen below 93, 92, 91 three hurdles, mainly due to the return of risk sentiment in April across the board. However, on the last day, the U.S. index stabilized above the 91 mark.
It is believed that the U.S. debt market has been closely watched by U.S. regulation, after sources revealed that the U.S. Treasury Department is “highly concerned” about the status of money market transactions; and Fed official Daley also called for reform of the U.S. debt market.
The weakening of the dollar has benefited international oil prices, with the U.S. and Abu Dhabi maintaining an upward swing in April, with WTI crude standing firm above $63 and a monthly surge of more than 6%.
U.S. stocks also continued to revel, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting new all-time highs on the penultimate day of April and the Dow setting new highs in the middle of the month. Overall, growth stocks and technology stocks were more impressive this month.
But when it comes to the most eye-catching cryptocurrencies in April, cryptocurrencies had a seat at the table, with bitcoin moving extremely excitingly during the month, breaking the $64,000 barrier at one point and hitting an all-time high, as well as swooping below $47,000. In contrast, cryptocurrency “second” ethereum is much more stable, although there were also short term shocks, but the overall trend upward, as of this writing has recorded a 42% gain this month. In addition, dogcoin also performed well in April, April 16 dogcoin once soared 200%, the year price jumped more than 100 times.
April also has to mention the asset is commodities (other than crude oil), the London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices rose to $10,008 per ton on Thursday, approaching the record high set in February 2011; iron ore, aluminum prices, etc. are also located near several-year highs.
[This month’s theme]
①The Fed continues to sing “doves”, interest rate hikes are expected to steeply cool
April out of the U.S. employment, inflation and other aspects of economic data are very good.
Non-farm payrolls recorded an increase of 916,000 in March, far exceeding expectations of an increase of 647,000, the largest increase since August last year.
March quarterly CPI recorded a monthly rate of 0.6%, the highest since last July.
a monthly retail sales rate recorded at 9.8% in March, the highest since May last year
The preliminary annualized quarterly rate of real GDP for the first quarter was recorded at 6.4%, well above the previous value of 4.5% and also above the expected value of 6.1%.
After the economic data turned better, the market began to worry that the Federal Reserve would soon tighten its easing policy. However, surprisingly, the Fed’s dovish stance was extended in both the March and April interest rate resolutions, and Powell’s emphasis on reiterating the maintenance of accommodative policy eased concerns. So throughout April, market expectations for a rate hike were significantly cooler, with European dollar futures markets betting on a delay in the Fed’s rate hike. Powell had revealed that most Fed officials do not believe that interest rates will be raised before 2024, so everyone can rest easy on the issue of interest rate hikes for now.
However, before the interest rate resolution in April, the Fed officials spoke in public to reveal the “turn hawk” signal.
Dallas Fed President Kaplan said “but once it is determined that we have survived the epidemic, will advocate the start of the withdrawal of unconventional measures”. In today’s latest speech Kaplan mentioned, noting that the market excesses and imbalances, that the discussion should begin as soon as possible to adjust the amount of QE purchases.
St. Louis Fed President Bullard, on the other hand, said that successfully getting 75% of Americans vaccinated would be a signal that the new crown crisis is coming to an end, which is a necessary condition for the Fed to consider tapering its bond-buying program.
People can pay close attention to the US epidemic and vaccination status in the future to prepare for the Fed’s policy shift.
As for other head central banks, the Bank of Canada has announced QE tapering; while the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank remain unchanged in interest rates and bond purchases for now.
②Biden continues to peddle infrastructure plans, will eventually pay with tax increases?
In April, U.S. President Joe Biden continued to promote his massive infrastructure plan. The White House released details of Biden’s $1.8 trillion “American Family Plan” on its official website, including about $1 trillion in investments and $800 billion in tax cuts for American families and workers, covering education, childcare, paid leave and sick leave, among many other areas.
Biden told a group of bipartisan lawmakers in mid-month that he was willing to compromise on a $2 trillion infrastructure bill, and officials expect the infrastructure plan to come out as soon as mid-July. At the same time, Biden acknowledged that the biggest problem is “how to fund this infrastructure plan.
The most likely means is to raise taxes – the news that President Biden plans to implement a capital gains tax of up to 43.4 percent on wealthy people was previously circulated in the foreign media. The U.S. Treasury Department later also detailed the tax proposals in Biden’s $2.25 trillion economic plan, saying that through these changes, some $2 trillion in corporate profits would be brought back into the U.S. tax net over a decade.
Another viable measure is to take advantage of partisanship – the U.S. Senate ruled that the budget reconciliation process will be available again within the year, opening the way for more stimulus packages to land within the year.
Biden has gone out of his way to sell the infrastructure plan, but it’s not easy to get the bill passed in Congress, as it has already been opposed by certain forces in both parties, one of which is the budget – the U.S. Treasury Department released a report showing that the federal government’s budget deficit in March had hit a record high for the month. The report shows that the federal government’s budget deficit for March has reached a record high for the month.
In response, moderate U.S. Senate Republicans are reported to have been drafting a scaled-back infrastructure plan proposal that is only one-third the size of Biden’s proposed U.S. jobs plan.
③ OPEC+ agreed to gradually increase production, the oil market has two more short lurking
April was not a peaceful month for the oil market. At the OPEC+ ministerial meeting in early April, delegates agreed to gradually resume monthly production increases, agreeing to increase production by 350,000 barrels per day in May and June, and 450,000 barrels per day in July. There was little reaction from the oil market at the time, with Goldman Sachs commenting that this was a reasonable response to the gradual rebound in oil prices since the beginning of the year and that the demand side of crude had been recovering.
However, in the second half of April, the severe Indian epidemic became the biggest black swan in the oil market, with analysts saying that the spread of the epidemic in India could weigh heavily on local crude demand, thus clouding the demand side of the oil market.
Next, the crude oil market may have one more bearish attack to meet. The U.S.-Iranian negotiations took a turn for the worse this month, with the U.S. likely to lift sanctions on Iran’s crude exports of about 1.5 million barrels per day, which could hit the supply side of crude, a risk also warned by the latest IEA monthly report.
On the other hand, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has shown signs of heating up since April, such as repeated attacks on Iranian vessels; the situation in Eastern Europe has also taken a sharp turn for the worse, with the EU having threatened to cut off the Russian SWIFT system and stop oil and gas imports from Russia; and there have been repeated armed clashes in the border areas of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.
④ Global Outbreak Worsens in Many Places, U.S. Vaccination Speeds Up
The new crown outbreak tended to rise again in April. At the beginning of the month, Italy, France and other European countries re-imposed an outbreak embargo; while in the middle of the month, the Japanese government will declare a state of emergency for Tokyo, Osaka and Hyogo prefectures for the new crown virus; and at the end of the month, outbreaks in India, Thailand and other developing countries also spread rapidly, triggering market concerns about global outbreak prevention and control.
The latest White House vaccine advisor said 100 million U.S. people have completed vaccination against New Crown.
④The first cryptocurrency stock goes public, but some countries still won’t let go of regulation
April has been a historic month for the cryptocurrency market. On the one hand, Coinbase, the digital currency exchange known as the “first stock of cryptocurrency”, was officially listed on the NASDAQ exchange, which greatly boosted the market’s confidence in cryptocurrencies and encouraged bitcoin bulls to push the price to new highs; on the other hand, several institutions also extended an olive branch to cryptocurrencies, for example, Germany announced that it would allow institutional funds to come down and buy cryptocurrencies.
But on the other hand, it cannot be ignored that countries such as Turkey still hold a conservative attitude towards cryptocurrency regulation, and it is reported that Turkey banned the use of cryptocurrency payments from April 30; in addition, there are rumors that the U.S. Treasury Department will also strengthen the regulation of cryptocurrencies, focusing on combating money laundering in the cryptocurrency market, and in the middle of the month, some big V posted similar information in social media, which once triggered the collective collapse of the cryptocurrency market.
Conclusion
The overall market in April is still remarkable: the gold market has finally picked up, but the upward momentum is not enough; the crude oil market is in consolidation due to the negative pressure, and the cryptocurrency market has repeatedly staged a roller coaster market ……5. Will there be more market feasts in the next 21 trading days? We’ll see.
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