The Economist analyzed that the strategic ambiguity has become ineffective and the US is worried that it is no longer able to effectively deter the mainland, fearing that the Taiwan Strait will become a fuse for war. The picture shows the USS Muscatine (DDG 89) crossing the Taiwan Strait.
According to the British “Economist” will be released on May 1, the latest article, the title of the article not only directly to “the most dangerous place on the surface” to describe Taiwan, and use the island of Taiwan as a picture. The article analyzes that although the U.S. has long managed the situation in the Taiwan Strait through “strategic ambiguity,” allowing the small island to maintain peace for decades, with the expansion of Beijing’s military power, strategic ambiguity is no longer viable, and Washington and Beijing must work harder to avoid Taiwan becoming a fuse for war in the future.
The Economist uses a radar map on a black background as its cover image, with Taiwan in the center of the radar map and the U.S. and mainland Chinese flags on the left and right. Interestingly, both flags are surrounded by bright spots, embracing Taiwan, seemingly symbolizing the fierce tug-of-war between Washington and Beijing in the region, thus increasing the risk of war.
Taiwan, a small island of 24 million people, is just 160 kilometers off the coast of mainland China, the article said. Beijing has long insisted that there is only one China, of which Taiwan is a part, while the United States has managed the Taiwan Strait through strategic ambiguity, recognizing that there is only one China on the one hand, and maintaining exchanges and relations with Taiwan through the Taiwan Relations Act on the other, allowing for the maintenance of two Chinas in essence and peace in the Taiwan Strait for the past 70 years.
But the long-standing strategic ambiguity of the operation is now feared to have failed, making the U.S. worried that continuing this approach will not deter Beijing from using force to forcibly unify. Therefore, the U.S. Indo-Pacific Commander Philip Davidson (Philip Davidson) recently said in a congressional hearing that Beijing may take military action as soon as 2027, and Taiwan will bear the brunt of it.
However, the war will undoubtedly become a catastrophe, not only because of the bloody extent of the war, but also Beijing and Washington as a nuclear power, the war fears the end of human civilization; even, the economy is also a major consideration. In particular, Taiwan is the center of the global semiconductor industry, about 84% of the world’s most advanced chips are produced in Taiwan.
The war caused TSMC to stop operating, meaning that the global electronics industry will face the risk of breaking the chain. Taiwan’s advantage is even more costly because TSMC’s technology and experience are more than a decade ahead of the industry, and even Beijing and Washington have taken several years to catch up, making the war even more costly.
Taiwan’s capture by the mainland has created a domino effect on the global chessboard. Although the U.S. has no black and white treaty protection obligations, Beijing’s unification of Taiwan will not only test U.S. military power, but will also have political and diplomatic effects. If the Seventh Fleet does not catch up in time, Beijing will not only become the dominant player in all of Asia, but will also cause U.S. allies around the world to lose their trust in the United States, causing the “Pax Americana” to collapse.
In fact, while the status quo in the Taiwan Strait has been maintained over the past few decades, the United States and the mainland have been secretly at war; over the past five years, the mainland has produced 90 warships and submarines like dumplings, four to five times the number of U.S. warships deployed in the Western Pacific. Beijing produces more than 100 fighter jets each year and develops missiles with ranges covering Taiwan and U.S. bases in Japan, South Korea and Guam. This growth in military power has made Beijing more confident in its use of force.
Nevertheless, the article points out that Beijing has not prepared the mainland population for the massive casualties and economic losses that would result from war; moreover, the main themes of the Communist Party’s centennial are wealth, prosperity and stability, and a more important role in global and regional issues, and war threatens to postpone these interests.
That said, Xi Jinping may want to set the tone for his own historical status by reunifying Taiwan; he and his successor may also run out of patience and go to war. If Taiwan and the U.S. want Beijing to believe that the cost of force is too high, they must think farther ahead and develop more strategies and tactics to stop Beijing from attacking Taiwan.
For its part, the United States needs to develop weapons to deter Beijing’s land and water attacks, prepare Japan and South Korea psychologically, and send a clear and credible message to Beijing about U.S. strategic plans. Of course, there is a delicate balance between convincing Beijing that it does not support Taiwan’s independence and letting Beijing know that changing the status quo in the Taiwan Strait by force will come at a steep price.
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