Russian troops were heavily concentrated on the Ukrainian border and the Crimean peninsula earlier this month, making the conflict between Russia and Ukraine seem imminent, but Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered a partial withdrawal of troops and the crisis has been temporarily resolved. According to expert analysis, Russia’s move is intended to send a clear message to the West that Moscow remains a threat to Ukraine and even southeastern Europe that cannot be ignored.
The Financial Times reported that Kaufman, a senior research scientist at the Center for Naval Analysis, a U.S. nonprofit research organization, pointed out that Ukrainian President Zelensky invited Putin to meet in the conflict zone last week as a tacit acknowledgement that he cannot violate the Minsk agreements signed in 2015, but Russia hopes that the Ukrainian government will amend the constitution to give pro-Russian Ukraine’s eastern The region has an autonomous status.
Kaufman said, “Russia wants very much to convince Zelensky to change his policy course, so to make Ukraine feel nervous and to make Ukrainians understand that they will have to solve their problems on their own in the end, that’s a reality that Zelensky and his government need to face.”
According to Borov, a senior researcher at the Carnegie Moscow Center, Putin’s deployment of heavy troops around Ukraine is also meant to warn the West that “there is a price to pay for unfriendly language and heightened tensions, and that price is the risk of a real conflict, which no one is happy to see happen. The Kremlin’s message has fallen on deaf ears.”
U.S. President Joe Biden angered Moscow in March by calling Putin an “executioner” and imposing new sanctions on Russia. But weeks later Biden signaled that the U.S. was willing to talk to Russia by offering to hold a bilateral summit with Putin. Therefore, lowering the military threat to Ukraine shows that the Kremlin understands that this wave of threats has achieved its goal and therefore moderately withdraws to meet Biden’s demands. Bonoff said, “Putin also wants to meet Biden and strike a good relationship.”
Even if Russia partially withdraws its troops for now, there is still a possibility that it will regroup in the future to put pressure on Ukraine.
The withdrawal reinforces Putin’s claim that he has no intention of invading, and his usual military intimidation has gained him some diplomatic advantage,” said Aiyona Gaimanchak, director of the New Europe Center, a Ukrainian think tank. Putin has found this method works and will repeat it in the future.”
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