The leaders of the United States and Japan emphasized the importance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait in a joint statement issued after their meeting last week. Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga said Tuesday (April 20) that Japan will not intervene militarily in the conflict in the Taiwan Strait.
At a plenary session of the Japanese House of Representatives, a member of the opposition party asked whether Japan would become militarily involved in Taiwan Strait-related issues in line with the U.S. military strategy to confront the Chinese Communist Party, according to Jiji press. Suga responded that the U.S.-Japan statement mentioning Taiwan “is not premised on military involvement.
Another opposition lawmaker said the joint statement’s call for a “peaceful resolution of cross-strait issues” could change the situation, according to the Japan Broadcasting Association. Kan said Japan hopes that the Taiwan issue can be resolved peacefully through direct dialogue between the parties concerned.
Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post reported that analysts see Kan’s latest comments at the Diet as a way to draw a line in the sand with suggestions that the government could use a different interpretation of the Constitution to send troops more freely.
Ben Ascione, an assistant professor of international relations at Waseda University in Japan, told the newspaper that Kan is in a difficult position on the Taiwan issue.
Ascione said, “If he doesn’t say anything, it could have a negative impact on the U.S.-Japan security alliance, but at the same time, Kan needs to make it clear to the domestic public that Japan will not go to war over Taiwan.”
He told the newspaper that there could be “many different scenarios” around Taiwan in the coming months and years, but that in an armed conflict around Taiwan, Japan’s level of involvement would likely be limited to rear support and maintaining the status quo under the constitution.
Asoni added: “For now we cannot expect Japan to do more than make incremental changes.”
The South China Morning Post also reported that Yuko Ito, a professor of international relations at Asia University in Japan, believes Kan is currently hamstrung by the “renunciation of war” clause in Japan’s constitution, which only allows him to deploy troops to defend the country and its allies. But she also said there is growing concern in some areas that the Japanese government is “too naive.
Yuiko Ito told the newspaper, “Under the constitution, it is not allowed to engage in military activities involving Taiwan, but tensions in the region are clearly rising, and if we only start talking about amending the constitution after the Chinese Communist Party attacks on Taiwan, it is already too late.”
A report in the Nikkei Asian Review said the threat of sanctions by the Chinese Communist Party could test Japan’s resolve toward Taiwan.
The report quotes Bonji Ohara, a senior fellow fellow at the Sasakawa Peace Foundation, as saying that since the U.S.-Japan leadership meeting, the CCP has come to see Japan as a partner of the United States and believes they are mounting a joint challenge to Beijing, adding, “The CCP is still weighing its options, but will likely increase all kinds of pressure against Japan taking further action.”
The Chinese Communist Party has recently been taking retaliatory measures against other countries. South Korea was retaliated against by the CCP after it decided to deploy the SAD anti-missile system several years ago. South Korea’s tourism and entertainment industries have been hit, and Korean products have been boycotted throughout China.
Australia’s request last year for an international investigation into the source of the New Coronavirus, a Chinese communist virus, was followed by a series of economic “punitive measures” against Australia, including restrictions on imports of some products and punitive tariffs, with Australian products such as beef and wine bearing the brunt.
The Nikkei Asian Review said retaliation against Japan could help Xi’s government increase pressure on the U.S. and its partners while satisfying hawks in a growing power struggle at home.
The report also said Japanese companies could bear the brunt of a Communist Party crackdown on Japan. How Kan will communicate with Japanese companies to face the political risks together is one of the many challenges facing the U.S.-Japan alliance.
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