Get ready, global economic inflation has arrived and China is bearing the brunt of it! See the experts’ analysis and interpretation.
Chinese and American indebtedness compared to each other! According to a U.S. think tank, the federal government is $123.1 trillion in debt and each taxpayer is burdened with $796,000 in debt. The situation is even worse in China, where residents are leveraged at 72.5 percent and have grown at an average rate of 22.2 percent over the past five years, far outpacing Western economies such as the United States, Japan and Germany.
Kudlow, a former White House economic adviser, noted that it was the Chinese economy that the Biden administration was stimulating by giving money to the people.
Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping pushed “One Belt, One Road” at Boao Forum for Asia, and scholars say a new Cold War has begun.
Xi Jinping pushes “One Belt, One Road” again, scholars say the new Cold War has begun
The Boao Forum for Asia annual meeting held in Hainan, the Communist Party of China General Secretary Xi Jinping said in his speech, in the era of economic globalization, artificial “building walls”, “decoupling” is against the laws of the economy and market rules, to the detriment of others.
In response, independent Chinese scholar Cha Jianguo said in an interview with Radio Free Asia on the same day that the new U.S. President Biden has inherited Trump’s new Cold War deployment against China, and Xi Jinping is trying to raise the banner of “win-win cooperation” to counteract the negative effects of the U.S. encirclement of China.
According to Cha, a new cold war between China and Western democracies, including the United States, has begun. And it will be a comprehensive and long-lasting strategic duel with confrontation as the main focus and cooperation as a supplement.
For his part, Jiang, a scholar of literature and history in Zhejiang, said this is a typical double standard. Because of his (the CCP authorities’) efforts in building walls and decoupling, such as his Internet firewall, some of the most popular applications such as Google, Facebook and Twitter are unable to enter China.
According to other scholars, Xi Jinping’s proposal reaffirms that China wants a Chinese version of globalization, neo-liberal globalization, which is Xi’s biggest strategic attempt to revise globalization into a China-led version. The core of course is the “Belt and Road”.
China’s personal debt is growing at the highest rate in the world, and its bank card debt exceeds that of the United States
When it comes to China’s debt, people’s first reaction is generally to government and corporate debt, while personal debt has not received much social attention for a long time. But some experts recently pointed out that China has been one of the fastest growing countries in terms of leverage among its residents over the past five years, and that China’s bank card debt ratio has surpassed that of the United States.
China’s central bank said last week that China’s macro leverage ratio has seen a phase increase due to the new crown epidemic, with the resident leverage ratio reaching 72.5%, up 7.4% year-on-year. The resident leverage ratio is total resident indebtedness divided by gross domestic product (GDP).
The degree of indebtedness can also be measured by the household gearing ratio, which is total resident indebtedness divided by total household assets. The Credit Suisse Global Wealth Report shows that in 2019, China’s resident household gearing ratio is 7%.
In addition, the household debt-to-income ratio can also measure the level of personal debt, which is the total amount of resident debt divided by disposable income. A previous report jointly released by Southwest University of Finance and Economics and Ant Group showed that China’s household debt-to-income ratio reached 121.6% in 2018.
Chinese finance scholar He Jiangbing said the indicator has not received much attention for a long time due to the lack of public availability of the resident leverage ratio, but the data reflect several major trends in the Chinese economy.
“First, China’s economy has declined in recent years and people’s incomes have decreased, so they borrow more; second, rising housing prices have led to higher debt levels among residents; third, consumption of big-ticket items (which has also increased significantly), including the purchase of new cars, while other burdens (which have also only increased), such as pensions, education and health care.”
Zhou Qiong, general manager of the strategic development department of China Postal Savings Bank, recently published an op-ed in Sina, using the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) statistics on China’s residential leverage ratio as of the third quarter of last year to make a parallel comparison with other countries. She noted that although China ranks only 22nd out of 43 major countries with a leverage ratio of 61.1%, China’s residential leverage ratio has increased by a whopping 22.2% over the past five years, the highest among these countries and far outpacing the increases in other major economies such as the US (0.9%), Japan (7.2%) and Germany (4%).
Statistics from China’s central bank show that by the end of last year, the balance of personal housing loans in China was about 34.4 trillion yuan, accounting for 54.5% of personal loans, which means that more than half of China’s personal debt is in mortgages.
The United States turned out to be so poor? Think tank: the national debt of more than 123 trillion each person burdened with nearly 800,000 dollars
Recently, the non-profit think tank “Truth in Accounting” (TIA) published a new report on the financial situation of the United States “2021 federal financial situation” (Financial According to the report, the federal government’s debt burden is $123.1 trillion, with each federal taxpayer carrying a burden of $796,000, giving the federal government an “F” grade for financial health.
The report notes that the U.S. finances deteriorated by nearly $10 trillion in 2020, with most of the debt being 55.1 trillion for universal health care and 41.2 trillion for social benefits; the pandemic of Wuhan pneumonia (Chinese communist virus, New Coronavirus, COVID-19) also exacerbated the deterioration in federal finances, and “the government had to borrow money to weather the pandemic. “
The U.S. is clearly not in a good financial position right now, but at a time when the Biden administration wants to pursue another infrastructure plan with a budget of $2.3 trillion, Republican Rep. Jason Smith (R-Utah) told the Epoch Times, “Washington Democrats are embracing a disturbing appetite for spending.”
“They just passed a nearly $2 trillion bailout bill. President Biden is now proposing that they go back and write another $2 trillion check to spend on a massive, comprehensive policy.”
The construction plan, which proposes to reinvigorate the U.S. economy and combat climate change by upgrading infrastructure, is being attempted by Democrats to pass in the coming months; in addition to that, Smith revealed to The Epoch Times that Biden has another proposal in hand for $2 trillion in spending.
Former Trump economic adviser: The government is giving money to the people to stimulate the Chinese economy
Kudlow, who is now the host of Fox Business, warned on his show that the stimulus checks actually stimulate the U.S. and Chinese economies just as much, if not more, for the latter.
Kudlow said, “These big stimulus packages that were passed last December and January, in fact, temporarily helped the economy go up, as we saw in the first quarter.”
Indeed, as Kudlow said, U.S. retail sales jumped 14 percent in the first quarter. And at the same time, China’s exports to the U.S. rose 38 percent, and led by exports, China’s GDP rose 18 percent in the first quarter.
Kudlow helped to clarify the thinking in detail: First Congress “foolishly” concocted nearly $3 trillion in “stimulus”. These “stimuli” led in part to a surge in consumer spending, but unfortunately, much of that surge was spent on a variety of goods and gadgets, including Apple’s iPhone. All of this has led to massive growth in China’s economy and exports, and the U.S. trade deficit with China has risen to a new high.
This was completely unexpected, and it was a major unintended consequence,” Kudlow said. Do we really want to help China in this way? Do we really want to stimulate the Chinese economy? I don’t think so.”
Kudlow noted that the stimulus checks did have a positive effect on China, however. He argues that excessive government spending is bad, raising taxes is bad, and the “stimulus package” for China is super bad. The Chinese Communist Party can use the money it makes to buy military weapons to attack U.S. networks, threaten Taiwan, and so on, and to stop international criticism of human rights in China, including the persecution of the Uighurs in Xinjiang and democracy in Hong Kong.
Three prominent economists contacted by Fortune, a U.S. business magazine, said sending $1,400 to about 150 million people would not stimulate anything. The entire campaign amounts to a shell game, simply shifting billions of dollars from one part of the economy to another, especially from funding businesses to develop production to spending on things like restaurants, clothing and cosmetics.
Even the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) admits that the debt burden from all those stimulus checks spilled in 2020 will slow down the U.S. economy in the coming years.
Economic Experts: Higher Yuan Exchange Rate Fears Spur Global Inflation
Economists recently said that as Chinese (Communist Party of China) goods become more expensive, it could eventually spur global inflation.
An index analysis by JPMorgan Chase & Co., one of the largest financial services firms in the U.S., shows that the real effective exchange rate of the yuan is about 2.8 standard deviations higher than the five-year average, Bloomberg reported on Sunday. This spread is the largest among the 32 major currencies measured.
Given the ubiquity of Chinese exports, the strength of Chinese exports could translate into faster global inflation. The yuan has risen more than 5% against a basket of currencies, including the euro and yen, since last July.
“China could start to lead the rise in global inflation,” said Kota Hirayama, senior emerging-markets economist at SMBC Nikko Securities Inc. in Tokyo, adding that inflation could accelerate and upward pressure on bond yields increase.
China’s impact has come from its exports of goods ranging from electronics, home appliances and clothing to medical and chemical products. in March, China’s exports surged 30.6 percent from a year earlier, though below economists’ median forecast of 38 percent.
There are already signs that price pressures in China are increasing, with its industrial production price index (PPI) rising last month at the fastest pace since 2018. The U.S., the Asian country’s largest export market, also recorded the largest increase in the cost of living in nearly three years.
According to a recent assessment published in March by the Washington, D.C.-based Institute of International Finance, its modeling shows the yuan is undervalued by 12.8 percent.
JPMorgan Chase’s index analysis shows the yuan’s real effective exchange rate has climbed nearly 8 percent from last June’s low and remains near an unprecedented high.
Dariusz Kowalczyk, chief China economist at Credit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank, said the higher exchange rate is due to a stronger yuan in nominal terms, as well as an accelerated growth in the cost of living in China compared with other countries .
Independent Big Data Expert: China’s Inflation Is Raging
An independent Chinese big data expert, Barbarian Warrior, recently wrote an article in which he selected ten representative commodities and analyzed and calculated the inflation situation over the last eight years. The ten commodities are: rebar, electrolytic copper, sulfuric acid, flat glass, gasoline, rice, soybeans, cotton, hogs and compound fertilizer.
In 2014 and 2015, the Chinese economy experienced a cold winter, with a clear downward trend in everything from real estate to industry. In the financial sector, there was a shortage of money and then a stock market crash. In the field of commodity prices, the average increase in the prices of ten commodities (i.e. inflation rate) was negative for two consecutive years, -3.1% in 2014 and -9.9% in 2015.
After 2016 China launched supply-side reforms, the legendary price hikes to destocking, which actually meant that the banks started a big easing policy, which of course brought a big price hike in 2016 and 2017, with inflation reaching 17.6% and 9.0% respectively.
What no one expected, however, was that the Chinese Communist virus ravaged the world in 2020 and China’s inflation rate ended up at 25.9%. In the first quarter of this year, China’s real inflation rate, again, reached 6.6%. Following this trend, it is normal for inflation to break 20%. Now that the Biden administration keeps printing money, it’s impossible for the global economy to keep from continuing inflation.
How deep a hole the far left will take humanity into, we will soon find out anyway.
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