Before 2020, no one will believe that the Great Inflation is coming to China. After all, under the “majesty” of our “Great China” Bureau of Statistics, the increase in the consumer price index has been precisely controlled at less than 3% every year, which seems to be a prosperous scenario of smooth weather and abundant products and stable prices. However, the year 2020 has passed, the price increase is so high that the Bureau of Statistics can not cope with it, and since this year it has risen. As one of the country’s leading data gurus, I certainly need to seriously sort out the real inflation rate.
Here, I chose ten representative commodity prices as the base prices, and calculated the arithmetic average increase in the prices of these ten commodities as the inflation factor. These ten commodities are: rebar, electrolytic copper, sulfuric acid, flat glass, gasoline, rice, soybeans, cotton, hogs, and compound fertilizer. These ten commodities represent the whole economy from basic manufacturing, real estate support, daily consumption and agriculture, and have a high status in their respective fields, so I do not give separate weight values, but directly calculate the arithmetic average increase. Below are the prices and average increases for these ten representative commodities from 2014 to the first quarter of this year.
In 2014 and 2015, China’s economy experienced a cold winter phenomenon, with a clear downward trend in everything from real estate to industry. In the financial sector, there was a shortage of money and then a stock market crash. In the field of commodity prices, the average increase in the prices of ten commodities (i.e. inflation rate) was negative for two consecutive years, -3.1% in 2014 and -9.9% in 2015.
After 2016 China launched supply-side reforms, the legendary price hikes to destocking, which actually started a big easing policy by the banks, which of course brought a big price hike in 2016 and 2017, with inflation reaching 17.6% and 9.0% respectively.
Honestly, although the Bureau of Statistics’ consumer price inflation rate is never below 3%, policymakers know the true inflation rate by heart. Generally speaking, a 5% price increase is inflation, and 10% is hyperinflation. 2016 and 17 years of such price increases have been too malignant to be malignant. So after 2018, a series of contractionary measures were initiated in the financial sector. The central bank started proactive tapering operations, while the CBRC made a big show of cleaning up all kinds of unregulated trust and wealth management products. Against this backdrop, the real inflation rate fell to -1.7% in 2018 and remained at 7.6% in 2019 against the backdrop of a raging trade war. .
What no one expected, however, was that in 2020, all of a sudden, the epidemic panic spread around the world. The global economy was turned off its engine and it relied on the European and American central banks to send money to keep the economy running. This kind of screw-up is bullshit and is sure to bring on violent inflation. As expected, the real inflation rate in 2020 is as high as 25.9%, I really can’t comment on this kind of data, I can only say that it is the creation of people.
Well, then to 2021, the United States side of the Democratic Party through massive and unscrupulous election fraud, dry Trump, the far left successfully ascended to power, and then the gang of latrine does not distinguish between men and women in the late stage of political correctness did three things: first, prohibit the normalization of the economy, forcing the U.S. states to close completely on the grounds of the epidemic; second, restart a variety of extreme environmental measures stopped by Trump, and restrict shale oil extraction The third, first sent two trillion dollars, and then plans to send three trillion dollars. This combination of punches down, the global economy want not to continue inflation, are impossible.
In the first quarter of this year, China’s real inflation rate reached 6.6%. Note that this is only the first quarter. If this trend can not be held down, this year again is easy to break the rhythm of 20%.
In this matter, I personally really do not know what to say. Now the global commodity pricing has long converged, basically a price, the price difference between Europe and the United States and China will not exceed 5 percentage points. For the first time in human history, the U.S., the center of the global economy, is in complete control of Congress and the government by a magical creature called the far left, and conservatives have been driven completely out of the center of power. How deep a hole the far left will take humanity into, we’ll soon find out anyway. They must and will not drag it out for long. Heh, heh, heh-da.
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