The General Administration of Customs of the mainland yesterday (13) announced foreign trade data, in U.S. dollars, March exports increased by 30.6%; imports increased by 38.1%, the highest growth rate since February 2017, however, the General Administration of Customs of the mainland forecast that the 2nd quarter because of last year’s high base period, the 2nd quarter foreign trade into growth will bring challenges.
The General Administration of Customs announced that in dollar terms, the cumulative Q1 exports increased 49% annually, imports increased 28% annually, with a trade surplus of US$116.35 billion.
General Administration of Customs spokesman Li Kuiwen said that since the third quarter of last year, the mainland’s foreign trade has maintained positive annual growth for three consecutive quarters, and this trend will be maintained in the coming period, but last year’s significantly higher base period objectively also brings challenges to the growth of foreign trade in the second quarter.
Reuters reported that Shanghai Securities macro analyst Hu Yuexiao pointed out that March import and export growth exceeded market expectations again, but this is not a good expectation, export growth is expected to be basically in line with reality, but imports rebounded sharply, significantly higher than expected, resulting in a significant reduction in the goods trade surplus for the month, combined with the import and export structure and changes in the form of international trade commodity prices, the massive growth in imports, should be the result of the bulk of Commodity prices rose as a result.
China Center for International Economic Exchanges researcher Zhang Yongjun pointed out that the good foreign trade data is expected, on the one hand, when overseas is still plagued by the epidemic, the mainland’s epidemic prevention materials and vaccine production capacity expansion have formed support for exports, while the recovery of the domestic economy also makes imports pick up, “it is estimated that the mainland exports in the first half of the year will still maintain a better momentum.”
Nie Wen, macro analyst of Warburg Trust, said that the follow-up is more worried about whether the mainland exports will still be a standout as the vaccine accelerates inoculation and the industrial chain in various countries gradually recovers, which requires close observation of the foreign trade situation in May and June.
Analysts mostly believe that, with the base period effect fading, overseas production recovery, exports are afraid that it is difficult to keep strong, while commodity prices held at a high level, domestic demand is steadily recovering, will continue to support imports, the surplus may be narrowed, in March this year has hit a new low of more than a year.
Zhongtai International Securities researcher Ji Chunhua said that the outlook for April, although the economic fundamentals of Europe and the United States to a positive posture, PMI maintained in the boom range, supporting the mainland’s future exports remain stable, but the recurrence of the epidemic will still affect the growth rate of exports in individual months in the future.
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